Wuhan, nCV, germs....

See the following. Watch the first three minutes. At about the three minute mark the date versus cases in China is shown and it is an exponential curve until suddenly they said, "nope, no more (or very few) new cases" which is not believable. The exponential growth curve, however, does fit.


Thank you... I will def listen to the whole thing and look for future posts from him.

It certainly goes without saying that the Chinese have been lying about this for a long time.

Another confounding variable in my mind (as far as spread rate) is that the virus has been here much longer than even our folks have been admitting.

A Pacific Northwest researcher (Chu, I think, in Washington) tested flu samples for nCOV against the instructions of CDC weeks before news went mainstream, and found many cases.
 
Yes the model only works to a certain time frame out.
Here is link to the interview with Micheal Levitt- https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html
Some of his thoughts don't hold out :
The explosion of cases in Italy is worrying, Levitt said, but he estimates it is a result of a higher percentage of elderly people than in China, France, or Spain. France and Spain are getting close to the same number of infection % now as Italy. Almost all the info out of China is doctored. If you believe China info, it has completely stopped. Also Italy and France are reporting that 20-40 year olds are being hit hard too.
China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said. “Currently, I am most worried about the U.S. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse. If true its because they did full lock down. Never going to happen in the USA. Too many elections and too much money to lose.

I hope he is right, but just don't see it.

Thank you, your critique is much appreciated. Regardless of what I hope for I am doing my part to distance/isolate in case the worst case scenario is true, along with my family.
 
I just pulled it up on my iPad and it is working fine. 7,323 cases in the US right now. Sixty six of them are in NC.

Try copying the base URL and opening in a new browser session. I had the same thing happen a few days ago.

That's the first thing I tried. I suspect it might be a Chrome/Android problem. Unless someone here can see it there, in which case I'm lost.

UPDATE: apparently arcgis is a pay for play with a 21 day free account up front, according to JHU. I've been on there too long, and now I am locked out.
 
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WTF, I hope you are being sarcastic about that. If not we need to have a 'conversation'.
Not being sarcastic. What are our options?

1. National lockdown that tries to replicate China's experience - their lockdown prevented the rapid spread that was happening in Hubei from replicating in every other province. Notably, none of the other provinces blasted through 1k cases. That is quite remarkable and all provinces outside Hubei have fared better than western Europe and America. And much of the infection outside of Hubei could have been prevented if they had quarantined Hubei earlier (~5mm people left Hubei just before Lunar New Year, taking the virus with them). After what was essentially a ~5 week lockdown, they have the virus under control now, and they are returning to work. We could do the same, provided we also ramp mask production for general population. Much economic damage, but we can manage for a short defined period of time. But this only works if we really lock things down.

2. We don't shut anything down, and acquire herd immunity the natural way, letting the virus cull who it will. And we triage the sick, which given limited resources, means we decide who gets ICU/oxygen/ventilator treatment. Italy is doing this right now - in the hardest hit hospitals, if you're over 65 or under 65 w/ preexisting conditions, you don't get ventilated. So if you fall into either group and you can't beat the virus on your own, you're dead.

3. Limp along. Limit gatherings and interaction. OK, that limits the spread, but it brings the economy to its knees. Unlike option #1, there is no end date here, and this could go on for many months. Considering that the average American has something like $500 saved, letting this drag on for months is untenable. And as others have pointed out, you'll have lots of people dying from other means - suicide, drug OD, robbery, etc. - as the economic depression drags on.
 
5 week lockdown and returning to work?
I know that’s what they say is happening in China but it makes no sense unless they have eradicated every case there and allow no travel in at all from the rest of the world that still has it growing. What am I missing?
 
5 week lockdown and returning to work?
I know that’s what they say is happening in China but it makes no sense unless they have eradicated every case there and allow no travel in at all from the rest of the world that still has it growing. What am I missing?
They still have cases, but now most of their relatively few cases are imported. Which is why they are now imposing mandatory 14-day quarantine for anyone - Chinese or foreign nationals - entering China.

You don't have to eradicate the virus entirely (that may not be possible with SC2 given that it is much more contagious than SARS or MERS and is less symptomatic than those viruses). Once you get to China's level of containment, you can return to work but everyone has to wear masks in public. And you have to do aggressive testing/contact tracing/quarantine of any new cases, so you can nip new transmission chains in the bud. That's a potentially realistic approach until we develop a vaccine - that's 1-2 years out.
 
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5 week lockdown and returning to work?
I know that’s what they say is happening in China but it makes no sense unless they have eradicated every case there and allow no travel in at all from the rest of the world that still has it growing. What am I missing?

That the Chinese lie? We’re just not sure how or about what.
 
They want it to all crash and burn. Orange Man Bad.
We moved away from the city, originally even away from CA, because I saw a major societal collapse coming "at some point in the future".

I told my wife I'm beginning to wonder if this might be it. Not so much from the virus itself, but from the reaction. Major cities not arresting people for theft, burglary, and vandalism? Releasing prisoners for same? The mass shutdowns, citywide lock downs, etc. - we're on the verge of total chaos. Cloward-Piven in action. But the strategy may not play out as planned.

"May you live in interesting times" indeed...
 
with the increase in testing there will be an increase in positive cases. A shutdown would be to prevent panic.
Recent study published in Science: 86% of infected were asymptomatic, not sure what the numbers are now but still estimates very high. Asymptomatic generally means no test, so we'll never really know how many were REALLY infected.
 
Had a meeting at lunch and immediately after lunch signs are up on the doors instructing patients to STOP. Call xxx-xxxx and notify front desk staff you are here. Then wait in your car until someone comes for you. Front desk staff writes down color of car patient is in once they arrive them. Once arrived staff goes out the side (employee) entrance to patients car. No matter what they are there for from 6 feet away or more I ask them if they have had a fever, cough or shortness of breath in the last 30 days (we're looking for 2 of 3). Pretty sure the other nurses do too. Anyone calling wanting to be seen for a sick visit is pre-screened asking about fever, cough or shortness of breath. If so appropriate precautions are taken. Only one person may come in with any patient. Once they are seen they check out up front and go out through the way they came in. It prevents people from sitting in the lobby. Everyone waits in their car until someone comes for them. Schedules are made months in advance but we are also scheduling routine visits (and non-respiratory things like a rolled ankle, UTI, etc) in the morning and sick visits after lunch. Still will have a mix though as again schedules are made months in advance for some. We are calling our elderly to see if they want to postpone their appointments or, if there is an opening, if they want to come in that morning. Same for routine visits. We're a small clinic but it's a start. During the meeting we were informed that the medical director stated that 43% of cases do not have a fever. Some facilities are doing temp checks before letting anyone in. If 43% are afebrile going screening for the other two symptoms will be very important. Our Providers feel we have already seen it in the community. We, along with most everyone else weeks ago, just didn't know it. Patients coming in with temps and cough but negative for Flu and strep. Dry coughs that last days or weeks (I had one for nearly two weeks as well as one of my sons about 6 weeks ago. Just couldn't shake it). Emails daily (if not more often) from the mother ship on updates as the situation is fluid and changes frequently. We also only had a handful of test kits. Now we (and our sister entities) were informed today we can use flu swabs to check for CV. However the usual suspects must be screened for first (Flu, RSV, strep) and then, if negative, the Provider can choose to screen for CV. This gives a little more flexibility in testing if a Provider chooses to do so as we have more flu swabs but like other things that are needed (mask, etc) there will be a backorder shortly on the swabs if testing is ramped up. For med refill request for routine meds (bp, diabetes, etc.) We're changing them from 30 day supply to 90 days so patients won't have to go to the pharmacy as much.
 
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I want a haircut, but my barber worries me since he stands around breathing into people's faces all day.
 
Had a meeting at lunch and immediately after lunch signs are up on the doors instructing patients to STOP. Call xxx-xxxx and notify front desk staff you are here. Then wait in your car until someone comes for you. Front desk staff writes down color of car patient is in once they arrive them. Once arrived staff goes out the side (employee) entrance to patients car. No matter what they are there for from 6 feet away or more I ask them if they have had a fever, cough or shortness of breath in the last 30 days (we're looking for 2 of 3). Pretty sure the other nurses do too. Anyone calling wanting to be seen for a sick visit is pre-screened asking about fever, cough or shortness of breath. If so appropriate precautions are taken. Only one person may come in with any patient. Once they are seen they check out up front and go out through the way they came in. It prevents people from sitting in the lobby. Everyone waits in their car until someone comes for them. Schedules are made months in advance but we are also scheduling routine visits (and non-respiratory things like a rolled ankle, UTI, etc) in the morning and sick visits after lunch. Still will have a mix though as again schedules are made months in advance for some. We are calling our elderly to see if they want to postpone their appointments or, if there is an opening, if they want to come in that morning. Same for routine visits. We're a small clinic but it's a start. During the meeting we were informed that the medical director stated that 43% of cases do not have a fever. Some facilities are doing temp checks before letting anyone in. If 43% are afebrile going screening for the other two symptoms will be very important. Our Providers feel we have already seen it in the community. We, along with most everyone else weeks ago, just didn't know it. Patients coming in with temps and cough but negative for Flu and strep. Dry coughs that last days or weeks (I had one for nearly two weeks as well as one of my sons about 6 weeks ago. Just couldn't shake it). Emails daily (if not more often) from the mother ship on updates as the situation is fluid and changes frequently. We also only had a handful of test kits. Now we (and our sister entities) were informed today we can use flu swabs to check for CV. However the usual suspects must be screened for first (Flu, RSV, strep) and then, if negative, the Provider can choose to screen for CV. This gives a little more flexibility in testing if a Provider chooses to do so as we have more flu swabs but like other things that are needed (mask, etc) there will be a backorder shortly on the swabs if testing is ramped up. For med refill request for routine meds (bp, diabetes, etc.) We're changing them from 30 day supply to 90 days so patients won't have to go to the pharmacy as much.


Paragraphs? :rolleyes:
 
Okay, so these kinds of occasional posts from folks in the medical field are what are the most alarming to me.

But what I am having a hard time reconciling is the data from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It seems like a worst case scenario for transmission... Super dense population, shared HVAC system, shared meal facilities, limited medical services.

If the data online (wiki, several news sites) can be trusted, all on board were tested and in the end 696 of 3618 tested positive (<20%, with over 400 noted as asymptomatic) and 7 died (<0.2%, all over 70 years old).

So what gives with the doomsday scenarios of 80% infection rates and 1% average fatality rate? Is the assumption that given more time another 60% of those on board would test positive? If it is so contagious, why wouldn't that have happened faster in such an environment?

I did not see info on how many required respiratory support and how that was handled, so any data on that would be welcome.

There is major risk of harm from our reaction at this point. I am hoping the treatment isn't worse than the disease and that cures/vaccines are on the way soon either way.

Is there any medical basis to the rumors that antimalarial chloroquine is effective against nCOV SARS-2?
The Plague Ship, per the Worldometer, has 712 infected and 7 deaths, with 14 in serious or critical condition. Assuming those 14 survive, that's a mortality rate of 1%. This is in the same ballpark as where S. Korea may end up, and IIRC, the mortality rate in China ex-Hubei per the joint WHO-China report was ~0.7%. These are all situations where patients are receiving good medical treatment in hospitals that are not overrun. So figure the mortality under those conditions is in the 0.7% - 1% range, and adjust for things like average age and average health (existence or lack of risk factors). Without some degree of lockdown/shutdown, you will overwhelm hospitals, and then mortality rate rises significantly.

A lot is still unclear about the Plague Ship. It is thought the original source was a person who disembarked in Hong Kong. But we don't know how many were infected before the ship was quarantined. And the quarantine measures left much to be desired, but even so, there was certainly a lot of social distancing on that ship - much more so than in normal society, and it seemed the virus was still transmitting. I think the action of multiple countries to remove their citizens from the ship tells you that these countries' medical experts thought the virus was spreading despite the quarantine, so yes, it seems likely that had we left everyone on the ship, many more would have been infected.

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are zinc ionophores, meaning they can transport zinc into cells. My understanding is that this ionophore role is why they are testing these drugs. Zinc blocks viral RNA replication, so if you can elevate zinc concentrations in cells, it slows down the virus, giving your body more time to mount a defense. There are other drugs being tested that also interfere with either viral RNA or protein replication.
 
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I want a haircut, but my barber worries me since he stands around breathing into people's faces all day.
Tell him to hold his breath............ Just sayin.........
 
Recent study published in Science: 86% of infected were asymptomatic, not sure what the numbers are now but still estimates very high. Asymptomatic generally means no test, so we'll never really know how many were REALLY infected.
Sure we will, or at least somebody will. Researchers will go and do statistically significant samples from a bunch of places that did and didn't have known hotspots and will know basically exactly how many people actually had it. Maybe after the fact, maybe as this thing is still going on. You have to know that to measure herd immunity and know when it is OK to ease and then lift the restrictions. And to know whether it could start back up again in the fall or whenever a few new cases make it here somehow.
 
Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are zinc ionophores, meaning they can transport zinc into cells. My understanding is that this ionophore role is why they are testing these drugs. Zinc blocks viral RNA replication, so if you can elevate zinc concentrations in cells, it slows down the virus, giving your body more time to mount a defense. There are other drugs being tested that also interfere with either viral RNA or protein replication.

Listen, you're saying a lot, but all I'm hearing is that we should be treating ourselves with alcohol in the form of gin and tonic...
because tonic contains quinine, which has anti-parasitic properties due to being a zinc ionophore.
 
I grabbed a few Twix and Kit Cats the other day.

I've been hitting the local Walmarts and Neighborhood Markets buying ice cream that is on clearance. Different flavors of Blue Bunny, Klondike's, Magnum's, Snickers dark chocolate ice cream bars, etc. We have a small deep freezer that was quickly filled up. Went to Greenville to the new Lowes last weekend to buy another one. All of the small ones were sold out and on back order. Manager said he couldn't sell the display models. Left and went across town to the old Lowes. Same thing. All sold out. Associate looked up the one I wanted. -27 (ordered and waiting) . Not getting any in until July. Associate stated they had a sale the begging of March and sold a lot then CV hit and people starting buying up small deep freezers. He called the manager and told him the situation. None in stock. Not getting any until July. The manager sold me the display of the one I wanted at 10% off. Have some frozen goods in that one too....and lots of ice cream.
 
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