Wuhan, nCV, germs....

Viruses do mutate (anything that replicates using imperfect transcription of DNA or RNA is capable of mutation).
Yes. Coronovirus use RNA. They have to first mutate, then they might or might not be zoonotic.

Everyone is a biologist these days. Not me. I fum State, though. ;)
 
Yes. Coronovirus use RNA. They have to first mutate, then they might or might not be zoonotic.

Everyone is a biologist these days. Not me. I fum State, though. ;)

That's one of those areas where I know what I don't know. I had graduate level micro and patho, and stopped there. My expertise is in the response to and initial treatment of. How all that s*** replicates, mutates, and turns into a zombie disease? I leave that to the professionals.

You don't want your PhDs putting on level A/level one self-contained suits and drawing blood from Ebola victims. That is for simpletons like me.
 
Yep. Even up here, where there are thousands of infected, people are not taking this seriously enough. Was at Home Depot yesterday, and I was in the tiny minority of people wearing a mask.

Liquor stores included in list of essential businesses, so they'll remain open. Guessing our few gun stores are deemed non-essential.

Some people are going to lose their minds, even if they don't run out of money to buy food. Not to mention our wonderful youts who won't be in school.

Virtue signaling libs who live in or very near 'diverse' areas may discover that 'diversity' without a strong police deterrent isn't as wonderful as they've been taught.

what sort of mask were you wearing?
I thought I heard that n95 wont prevent you from getting it
 
what sort of mask were you wearing?
I thought I heard that n95 wont prevent you from getting it
I have read from a few different sources that it looks like a key factor in how sick someone gets if they contract the virus is the initial viral load they receive. It was explained this way: in order to become symptomatic you need to have X concentration of the virus in your system. At some level well below X your immune system begins to react. The virus takes some time to multiply and in that time before you become symptomatic your immune system continue to ramp up. So, in other words, if you receive a small initial dose, your immune system has a change to react and build up some defense thereby giving it the ability to overtake the virus before you get critically sick. If, on the other hand, you receive a large viral load it has the capability of making you much sicker before your immune system can catch up. Therefore, using a mask to reduce the exposure, even if it doesn't prevent it, makes a lot of sense.

Also, Herschel at The Captain's Journal has a good analysis from tracking the Johns Hopkins confirmed cases. Basically the number of cases is following an exponential curve y=650.43 * e^.2869. The .2869 is effectively the time constant and it tells us that the doubling time is about 2.5 days (ln2) / .2869. This is based upon the rate of spread. As he indicates, there are other terms in there, which he calls a lead-lag function. Those would be terms regarding rate of recovery and mortality. Obviously an analytical function would be very messy but at some point the curve is going to first flatten and then start to reverse downward.

He also discusses the mask and the effect on the viral load and has links to additional information in it.
 
Most mask only protect the nose and mouth ( some have eye shields) and then only if worn correctly. But most folks put on a mask, then start touching their face and eyes, transferring it to themselves. Or they did good when out and get home, grab the outside of mask, take it off and pick their nose.
 
You don't want your PhDs putting on level A/level one self-contained suits and drawing blood from Ebola victims. That is for simpletons like me.
Can confirm
However, us PhDs rarely know how to do the stuff you simpletons do as well as you do... That's why you get handed protocols somebody else figured out and told by us "make it work with our system, let me know what changes you made"...
I'm not in research, and i'm pretty glad for it. Got out after grad school and I don't really want to go back if I don't have to. but the pay is good.
 
what sort of mask were you wearing?
I thought I heard that n95 wont prevent you from getting it
Just a regular dust mask. I have a half-face respirator, but given that very few people are wearing any mask at all up here despite NY having half of all confirmed cases in the country, folks probably not ready to see a guy walking around with a respirator. Might wear it next trip to Home Depot just to light a fire under the complacent.

Nothing will prevent you from getting infected if you're not careful. But N95 masks, properly worn, provide droplet protection, which is the appropriate level for most. If you're medical staff intubating patients, you need aerosol protection.

But to @noway2's point, the inoculating dosage matters. If you get a very tiny dose of virus, it may amount to a vaccination, where you get very mildly ill, then get better and now you have antibodies. I suspect variance in inoculating dose size plays a role in why so many young medical staff in Wuhan got severely ill. And probably plays a role in variance we see among otherwise healthy people in general - some get a mild cold, others get a terrible flu that lasts for a couple of weeks, and still others end up on a ventilator. So my guess is anything that reduces potential inoculating dose, even a bandana, is better than nothing.
 
Might wear it next trip to Home Depot just to light a fire under the complacent.
Go big or go home:

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A view from the front lines:
https://www.propublica.org/article/...=twitter&utm_campaign=ProPublica+Main+#179875

Something for those who think "I get it, but I am young and will be ok" :
Even if you survive ARDS, although some damage can heal, it can also do long-lasting damage to the lungs. They can get filled up with scar tissue. ARDS can lead to cognitive decline. Some people’s muscles waste away, and it takes them a long time to recover once they come off the ventilator
 
Just a regular dust mask. I have a half-face respirator, but given that very few people are wearing any mask at all up here despite NY having half of all confirmed cases in the country, folks probably not ready to see a guy walking around with a respirator. Might wear it next trip to Home Depot just to light a fire under the complacent.

Nothing will prevent you from getting infected if you're not careful. But N95 masks, properly worn, provide droplet protection, which is the appropriate level for most. If you're medical staff intubating patients, you need aerosol protection.

But to @noway2's point, the inoculating dosage matters. If you get a very tiny dose of virus, it may amount to a vaccination, where you get very mildly ill, then get better and now you have antibodies. I suspect variance in inoculating dose size plays a role in why so many young medical staff in Wuhan got severely ill. And probably plays a role in variance we see among otherwise healthy people in general - some get a mild cold, others get a terrible flu that lasts for a couple of weeks, and still others end up on a ventilator. So my guess is anything that reduces potential inoculating dose, even a bandana, is better than nothing.


No way, cdc said only wear a mask if you're sick
 
No way, cdc said only wear a mask if you're sick
If it makes you feel any better, CDC still isn't telling docs they need masks for every patient interaction. They're lying to medical personnel for the same reason they're lying to us. There aren't enough masks.

Masks are the best weapon to subdue transmission without completely locking up the economy while we wait for highly effective therapeutics.
 
No way, cdc said only wear a mask if you're sick

If it makes you feel any better, CDC still isn't telling docs they need masks for every patient interaction. They're lying to medical personnel for the same reason they're lying to us. There aren't enough masks.

Masks are the best weapon to subdue transmission without completely locking up the economy while we wait for highly effective therapeutics.

I've been told by the medical professionals in my household that masks on sick people protect others, and masks on well people don't protect them at all.
 
They're lying to medical personnel for the same reason they're lying to us. There aren't enough masks.
There aren't enough masks, but they are not lying.

Everyone should have a mask, so they can sand gunstocks while they are well, and keep others from being infected while they are sick.
 
I've been told by the medical professionals in my household that masks on sick people protect others, and masks on well people don't protect them at all.
"masks on well people don't protect them at all"

Really? Care to explain the magical process by which they protect healthcare workers but don't protect non-healthcare people?
 
Perhaps @Jointdoc can explain... I think it is all about the seal.

If HCare workers wear [Edit: the usual simple] masks thinking they are protected, they have been lied to.
 
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Perhaps @Jointdoc can explain... I think it is all about the seal.

If HCare workers wear [Edit: the usual simple] masks thinking they are protected, they have been lied to.

uncle sam forced us to suck rubber for years (yes that was said to sound as gay as possible), well aware of how masks seal. work for them, they work for us. anything anyone else is telling your is plain BS
 
Perhaps @Jointdoc can explain... I think it is all about the seal.

If HCare workers wear [Edit: the usual simple] masks thinking they are protected, they have been lied to.

N95 is fit tested and creates a seal over the face. The material is different - it is truly a filter.

the “standard” surgical mask prevents droplets from leaving your mouth. No seal at all.

Hence why they help protect healthy from sick, or prevent microscopic drops from falling out of the surgeons mouth onto the surgical field when talking during surgery.

N95 protects healthy from sick - airborne disease. Used for TB, working in fumes

Different in construction and material
 
"masks on well people don't protect them at all"

Really? Care to explain the magical process by which they protect healthcare workers but don't protect non-healthcare people?


Explained above. It isn’t magical. Just need to know what mask to use and for what purpose.
 
^ still doesn’t hold water. If any mask can protect a patient from a surgeon’s droplets I’m not hearing any reason it can’t work the other way.
Healthy person wearing mask even without a perfect seal would have to be better for that person. Sick person coughs near you, would you rather have a not perfectly sealed mask or nothing? If there were no shortage of masks does anyone think they wouldn’t say wear one. It’s about the odds.

Not touching your face is tough. Mask could help learn that habit. Having that habit already would be nice.
 
I'm terrible about touching my face... Especially my beard/mustache. Don't even begin to know how to stop short of shaving and dipping my hands in hot sauce all day...

That said, anyone who says masks do nothing is ignorant or lying... They may not all be perfect but they certainly are beneficial to both sick and healthy in terms of protection and transmission. Is a dust mask the same as my full face respirator? Of course not. It will however offer some protection from particulates/droplets as well as help you touch vulnerable parts of the face less... Common sense...
 
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I would think that the well people, especially in a medical setting, wearing masks for protection should also be wearing some sort of eye protection (glasses, goggles, or face shield). I see a lot of that, but it doesn't seem to be universal. If people are distancing, that's maybe not so important...but if you're close enough for sneezed droplets to pose a risk to my respiratory system, I want my eyes covered too.
 
To add a little clarity, there are different types of "mask". Jointdoc explained this. Some are mostly shields against direct breath/droplet exposure, but still have leakage around the edges. Not all of the air flow goes "through" the mask and the material is not fully filtering. So some exposure exist, but the nature of the mask redirects the leakage somewhat rearward. Other mask are designed to completely seal around the face forcing all air flow through the mask. (N95) These filter the air in and out. Actually, in hospital you are required to demonstrate your ability to create a seal. Then you throw in the mask with "valves". These filter the air in, but bypass filtering the air out, because of the valve.
 
Has anyone mentioned the National Guard arrived in Charlotte yesterday? The news says they are to help people get the things they need. I say to keep order when the shutdown comes.
 
I wear one 80% of my day for the last 15 years. Training keeps you from to touching your face. Bloody gloves on your hands keeps you from touching your face.
If only that were true, I wouldn't worry so much every time the words "audit" and "inspection" come up...

What if I put a dry cleaning bag over my head and put a rubber band around my neck, will I be protected then?
Stick the right filter on your portable oxygen concentrator and put the outlet tube in your plastic bag...

Has anyone mentioned the National Guard arrived in Charlotte yesterday? The news says they are to help people get the things they need. I say to keep order when the shutdown comes.
Well now you're just being paranoid. The government is here to help! when have they EVER gone so overboard such as to make worser the situation and such? AOC has assured me...
 
Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics had this to say:

“There is a major movement toward authoritarianism. Perhaps because they know the system is collapsing and they are using this as the excuse. There is something wrong here. You do not destroy the world economy on this magnitude to even save 25,000 lives. Even if 40% of the population got this, with a death rate which is less than 3% (8% among the elderly), it does not warrant this economic destruction. They are wiping out small businesses, countless people have lost their jobs, others their entire pension fund, and there is no putting this back together again as (if) nothing happened. This is an intentional economic destruction that is being carried out for an undisclosed purpose.”
 
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