Latest Solar Flare Maps

turkeydance

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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002329

In the eastern United States, there is a particularly high hazard region just east of the Appalachian Mountains that trends northeast‐southwest and extends from Maine to Georgia (Kelbert et al., 2019). This area of high hazard between the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the Appalachian Mountains is associated with an anomalous coast‐parallel resistor within the upper mantle (Murphy & Egbert, 2017) and is in stark contrast to areas of relatively low hazard on either side of it.
 
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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019SW002329

In the eastern United States, there is a particularly high hazard region just east of the Appalachian Mountains that trends northeast‐southwest and extends from Maine to Georgia (Kelbert et al., 2019). This area of high hazard between the Atlantic Coastal Plain and the Appalachian Mountains is associated with an anomalous coast‐parallel resistor within the upper mantle (Murphy & Egbert, 2017) and is in stark contrast to areas of relatively low hazard on either side of it.
Say what?
Would you please put this into language that an old man can understand?
Thanks
 
Are you telling us this year is going to suck more?
 
translation:
A solar superstorm can make your lights go out.
New maps released by the USGS show where the power is most likely to fail:
The Denver metropolitan area, the Pacific northwest, the Atlantic seaboard,
and a cluster of Midwestern states near the US-Canadian Border.
Bright yellow and orange trace the trouble spots across the contiguous USA.
 
So the maps show data collected from within the Earth, measuring voltage and electric field?

How are these data collected?
 
So this map is historical. What does it mean for us going forward? It might as well be a map of the sewer system to me.
 
A once‐per‐century geoelectric hazard map is created for the U.S. high‐voltage power grid. A statistical extrapolation from 31 years of magnetic field measurements is made by identifying 84 geomagnetic storms with the Kp and Dst indices. Data from 24 geomagnetic observatories, 1,079 magnetotelluric survey sites, and 17,258 transmission lines are utilized to perform a geoelectric hazard analysis with the most comprehensive data publicly available. With these data, we estimate once‐per‐century geoelectric fields at the magnetotelluric survey sites and calculate the theoretical voltages within transmission lines in the U.S. power grid. Once‐per‐century geoelectric field strengths span more than 3 orders of magnitude from a minimum of 0.02 V/km at a site in Idaho to a maximum of 27.2 V/km at a site in Maine, with nearly 30% of the surveyed land area exceeding 1 V/km. We show the influence that geoelectric field polarization has on geoelectric hazards when viewed on a power transmission network. The calculated transmission line voltages can approach 1,000 V in some transmission lines. Four regions in the United States with particularly notable geoelectric hazards are identified and discussed: the East Coast, Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and the Denver metropolitan area.


Calculations are made for existing power grid, using public data from geomagnetic observatories, magnetotelluric survey sites and a whole lotta transmission lines.
 
This led me deep into though. Like “what even is the effing power grid”...i guess you could say I have had a revelation of sorts tonight. I had no idea, that “the power grid” is contiguous (save for those supplies by Texas with its own separate grid).

that is absolutely incredible. It seems unreal. Like more evidence I live in The matrix. How I the hell does such a large scale...machine, function so reliably? Was this a natural evolution or is there basic civil/electrical engineering principles that implied this would be the design outcome all along?

I feel like a kid. Not often you learn something so profound (fundamentally) in your 30’s. Cool.
 
I thought I heard we didn't have solar flares anymore because of global warming or something.
 
So when's this thing going to hit ? Can we flatten the curve? Do we have enough PPE?

Is the sun conspiring with China and the Muslims? What are chances that the two weakest defense mechanisms and therefor greatest existential threats to America would happen so close togetger? WTF have the chicoms been telling the sun?
 
I do not believe you. o_O

yeah, I felt a bit stupid having that “aha” moment now, but better late than never. But it’s interesting to me, thinking about our grid as an uninterrupted circuit at national scale. That’s crazy, not exactly intuitive and it’s not like they teach you such specific things is early school.

I always just thought “the grid” was connected to “a” electric network...not “the” network.
 
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yeah, I felt a bit stupid having that “aha” moment now, but better late than never. But it’s interesting to me, thinking about our grid as an uninterrupted circuit at national scale. That’s crazy, not exactly intuitive and it’s not like they teach you such specific things is early school.

I always just thought “the grid” was connected to “a” electric network...not “the” network.
Eastern grid, Western grid and Tejas. I don't have the actual history, but I believe it is a patchwork of connected grids that grew into what it is. Plenty of weak points and vulnerabilities.
 
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Just think of it as an ad hoc network, where none of the nodes ever spent any money on PM or upgrades or security o_O

A little Southern hyperbole, but not much.
 
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"Research "The Carrington Event." See what a real solar storm did in 1859."

well, i did.
here's one that matched it.
quotes:
“The storm attained an estimated maximum −Dst on 15 May of 907 ± 132 nT, an intensity comparable to that of the Carrington Event of 1859,” they wrote in their paper."
"It began on May 12, 1921 when giant sunspot AR1842, crossing the sun during the declining phase of Solar Cycle 15, began to flare."
"And then the fires began."
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/05/12/the-great-geomagnetic-storm-of-may-1921/
 
As long as 10 Meters opens up again, I'm fine with this.
 
that is absolutely incredible. It seems unreal. Like more evidence I live in The matrix. How I the hell does such a large scale...machine, function so reliably? Was this a natural evolution or is there basic civil/electrical engineering principles that implied this would be the design outcome all along?
Redundant systems and automatic switching. Like most big systems, it's great until there are a couple simultaneous small problems that went unnoticed. Then, suddenly, the entire thing collapses.
I take it most of you weren't up north in 2003...
I remember seeing some dude sneaking in the dark hopping over into a new neighbor's back yard.
A couple of us ran to the homeowner's door to let him know. I knocked on the door and suddenly found the door ripped open with a gun pointed in my face. He had a wife and kid crouching behind him in candlelight.
I said "whoah man, I live across the street and I just wanted to let you know I saw a guy hopping your fence and getting in your back yard."
he replied "Well, let's go see if he's still there" as his wife locked the door behind him.
Most of the neighbors spent the next couple nights doing a lot of "stargazing", while armed.
 
Redundant systems and automatic switching. Like most big systems, it's great until there are a couple simultaneous small problems that went unnoticed. Then, suddenly, the entire thing collapses.
I take it most of you weren't up north in 2003...
I remember seeing some dude sneaking in the dark hopping over into a new neighbor's back yard.
A couple of us ran to the homeowner's door to let him know. I knocked on the door and suddenly found the door ripped open with a gun pointed in my face. He had a wife and kid crouching behind him in candlelight.
I said "whoah man, I live across the street and I just wanted to let you know I saw a guy hopping your fence and getting in your back yard."
he replied "Well, let's go see if he's still there" as his wife locked the door behind him.
Most of the neighbors spent the next couple nights doing a lot of "stargazing", while armed.

i was like 15 during that black out. We were in the middle of band practice and thought our amps blew a fuse or something...

by nightfall, I was just getting drunk and finding strange.
 
update.....

July 29, 2020: Don’t let Solar Minimum fool you.
The sun can throw a major tantrum even during the quiet phase of the 11-year solar cycle.
That’s the conclusion of a new study published in the July 1st edition of the Astrophysical Journal Letters.

“In late October 1903, one of the strongest solar storms in modern history hit Earth,”
say the lead authors of the study, Hisashi Hayakawa (Osaka University, Japan) and Paulo Ribeiro (Coimbra University, Portugal).
“The timing of the storm interestingly parallels where we are now–near Solar Minimum just after a weak solar cycle.”

https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2020/07/29/the-solar-minimum-superstorm-of-1903/
 
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