How Long is the Ammo Shortage Going to Last?

How long will the 2020 Ammo Shortage Last

  • 0-3 More months

    Votes: 8 3.6%
  • 6-9 Months

    Votes: 31 13.8%
  • 9-12 Months

    Votes: 29 12.9%
  • 12-18 Months

    Votes: 36 16.1%
  • 18 to 24 Months

    Votes: 27 12.1%
  • More than 24 Months

    Votes: 66 29.5%
  • The Rest of my Natural Life

    Votes: 27 12.1%

  • Total voters
    224
Many do not realize the run on guns started in March as soon as the stay at home orders started popping up. The recent riots and such just got the normal gun owners out looking and realizing the situation.

There was a sale at a LGS awhile back. I passed at 20.5 per round 9mm by the case. Wish I hadn't. Sportsman's Guide is taking pre orders that will be available in a couple of months. I may do it just because. Even at a higher price than I passed on back then.

What most of us seem to to think being low on supply is still considered a huge amount to the uninformed and liberal gun grabbers. My ammo safe would give them the vapors. Probably half of it is .22LR. And I'm pretty sure many of you make my supply look miniscule.
 
There was a sale at a LGS awhile back. I passed at 20.5 per round 9mm by the case. Wish I hadn't. pis taking pre orders that will be available in a couple of months. I may do it just because. Even at a higher price than I passed on back then.

What most of us seem to to think being low on supply is still considered a huge amount to the uninformed and liberal gun grabbers. My ammo safe would give them the vapors. Probably half of it is .22LR. And I'm pretty sure many of you make my supply look miniscule.

Not trying to fan the flames but you are 100% correct. If the avg person knew how much ammo some of the members here had their head would exploded. Let me relay this tidbit. I was at my father in laws about 3 weeks ago for his birthday. He is a Vietnam Vet and still a Marine. He shoots every now and then. I gave him 150 round of 45 ACP. I asked him if there had been ammo shortages in his area. He lives in Wilmington so I know full well there is no 45 ACP on the shelves. He says no he just goes to Academy and gets what he needs. I just smiled and said cool... knowing that I had just given him enough ammo to shoot for a while.

The avg gun owner in this country is clueless to the stuff we discuss here on a daily. So when they go to the local Academy sports and it looks like a Russian Grocery store of ammunition they panic. The next time they see any amount in stock they buy ALL OF IT because they feel the terror of scarcity and FOMO.

The problem with the Sportsman's Guide deals is that they have a high chance of ending up like Bass Pro and Cabelas. They will never ship. It is not a loss because they won't charge you until it ships I just wound not count on your order being filled. Still it is a no risk hedge which I think is prudent.
 
Last edited:
As we push into Aug it seems to be getting worse. The panic has now completely engulfed both factory ammo an reloading of common calibers. I predict $.40 a round for 9mm will be the going rate by the end of the month.
 
As we push into Aug it seems to be getting worse. The panic has now completely engulfed both factory ammo an reloading of common calibers. I predict $.40 a round for 9mm will be the going rate by the end of the month.

Thank God for foresight and sailboat keels!
 
I’m trying to sell some ammo right now so believe me, The shortage is going to last 10 so you better buy my stuff right now. Eventually 22lr will be $2 a round:)

So funny. I have been looking at the prices here and online all over the place and and thinking WTF. o_O

Who is paying these prices?

#goldentigerthebest
 
Look how long it took for 22LR to normalize.
 
Look how long it took for 22LR to normalize.
You really think it’ll drop that low? :eek:

I now everytime I think it is leveling off it pushes higher.

22LR is also being affected again. Geco which is good plinking ammo was selling in the $.4 range is now up to $.09. People are paying more for 22LR then I can roll my own 9mm. Crazy times.
 
And to add to the muck, the Pentagon asked for ammo mfg's to bid on a 10 year supply of ammo. Among the small arms listed were for 9mm and 7.62x39 (for the AK variant platform they're going to.)
 
It seems to be predominantly 9mm and 233 that have skyrocketed in price and become vaporware. Same with GLOCKs and ARs, as well as cheap guns across the board. The run on everything else is less extreme and less price effected from what I have seen.
 
So funny. I have been looking at the prices here and online all over the place and and thinking WTF. o_O

Who is paying these prices?

#goldentigerthebest
My friend who just got back into shooting will be snagging ammo at whatever price she can, probably.

She's been going thru a lot of trauma in the last 2 years, and is just now ready to get moving with her CC permit, and figuring out what her husband left her, gun-wise. She's behind. But she will do what she needs to, to protect herself and her family.
 
My friend who just got back into shooting will be snagging ammo at whatever price she can, probably.

She's been going thru a lot of trauma in the last 2 years, and is just now ready to get moving with her CC permit, and figuring out what her husband left her, gun-wise. She's behind. But she will do what she needs to, to protect herself and her family.

In the end people in that spot don't need thousands of rounds. They need some to practice with and then some to defend themselves. We realistically are not going to find our selves in a prolonged fire fight doing massive mag dumps. Honestly for a new shooter 1000 rounds would be more than enough to get somewhat competent and then have enough to defend themselves. IMHO
 
In the end people in that spot don't need thousands of rounds. They need some to practice with and then some to defend themselves. We realistically are not going to find our selves in a prolonged fire fight doing massive mag dumps. Honestly for a new shooter 1000 rounds would be more than enough to get somewhat competent and then have enough to defend themselves. IMHO
This is true. She's not going to buy massive amounts at these prices.

But she is going to get training, since it's been a few years since she shot, and so I'm trying to help her find 9mm and .45, and maybe .380 if she decides to buy a gun in that calibre. She's been shopping around, and she can go on the base as well.

If she really gets to loving shooting like I do, than she will want lots and lots of ammo! LOL.
 
Just saw 9mm jhp....96c per round! Oww. Forwarding the email to my friend, though.
 
It seems to be predominantly 9mm and 233 that have skyrocketed in price and become vaporware. Same with GLOCKs and ARs, as well as cheap guns across the board. The run on everything else is less extreme and less price effected from what I have seen.

Have you tried finding buckshot?

Anecdote: about a week or two ago, saw email "notice when back in stock" for some 20-g #3 buckshot - no more than an hour as the message wasn't there when went to dinner, but was when done. Selected 10 (just ten) boxes, went to enter CC info, and by the time that was done, they were sold out - order didn't go through. This was a large online supplier, not a place that just gets in 50 boxes. Out of curiosity/frustration, I tried logging out and re-selecting, but this time the site wouldn't even allow one to select x10. So it seems that just in the time it took to enter CC data, the last stock was purchased.

Gazoo wept.
 
Last edited:
I recast my vote after reading a credible source who says it's really a primer shortage and it's not getting any better. What a great choke point that would be for the controllers to attack, eh?
 
Have you tried finding buckshot?

Anecdote: about a week or two ago, saw email "notice when back in stock" for some 20-g #3 buckshot - no more than an hour as the message wasn't there when went to dinner, but was when done. Selected 10 (just ten) boxes, went to enter CC info, and by the time that was done, they were sold out - order didn't go through. This was a large online supplier, not a place that just gets in 50 boxes. Out of curiosity/frustration, I tried logging out and re-selecting, but this time the site wouldn't even allow one to select x10. So it seems that just in the time it took to enter CC data, the last stock was purchased.

Gazoo wept.

It has spread to a lot of calibers. On Ammoseek right now the lowest priced 22LR is $.08. My LGS is out of buckshot and slugs.

I recast my vote after reading a credible source who says it's really a primer shortage and it's not getting any better. What a great choke point that would be for the controllers to attack, eh?

I always assumed that, factory ammo, powder and primers was where we would bet pinched. The movement of these products are already regulated. Right now I think it is demand issue vs restriction. I think the fact that ammo was at 10-15 year lows in the pas 6 months caused manufacturers to slow production. Then they had a run on the bank and cannot ramp back up fast enough. What info do you have?
 
It has spread to a lot of calibers. On Ammoseek right now the lowest priced 22LR is $.08. My LGS is out of buckshot and slugs.



I always assumed that, factory ammo, powder and primers was where we would bet pinched. The movement of these products are already regulated. Right now I think it is demand issue vs restriction. I think the fact that ammo was at 10-15 year lows in the pas 6 months caused manufacturers to slow production. Then they had a run on the bank and cannot ramp back up fast enough. What info do you have?
I should have been more clear. AFAIK, the current shortage is strictly pan(dem)ic buying, followed by the inevitable stampede.

My thoughts were that primers are the modern firearms culture's weak link. That thought was prompted by the current conditions; I was not suggesting that the controllers are currently creating the shortage. Though I am equally sure that they are paying attention to it.
 
Look how long it took for 22LR to normalize.
Many, many years. With Covid19 production issues this demand will go on for years. With over ten million new guns sold and upwards of 135 percent sales by some manufacturers over 2019 first six months the ammo business should not see a drop in purchasing for years.

Local gun stores will see more exposure during limits on ammo per purchases. More traffic will be generated which means more shoppers for guns and accessories. Good times for all sellers.
 
Better start buying bows and arrows while you still can!!

I've also been wondering if now would be a good time to sell off some of the steel core Norinco I've had sealed up since Clinton was President?
 
image.jpg If I honestly thought the shortage would be lasting more than a few months I wouldn’t be selling ammo. Selling another K of 9mm today. Ones in the floor board because of excess braking:)
 
Last edited:
Many, many years. With Covid19 production issues this demand will go on for years. With over ten million new guns sold and upwards of 135 percent sales by some manufacturers over 2019 first six months the ammo business should not see a drop in purchasing for years.
How many of those new guns were sold to buyers who will likely take them out to shot few enough times you could count it on one hand. Sure some of the first-time buyers will enjoy shooting and shoot regularly but I gotta believe most will windup stuck back in a drawer, closet or some dark place to never eat ammo again. I personally know of 3 CHP holders who still have partial boxes of the ammo they took their CHP class with and have never fired their handgun since.
 
Last edited:
View attachment 237201 If I honestly thought the shortage would be lasting more than a few months I wouldn’t be selling ammo. Selling another K of 9mm today. Ones in the floor board because of excess braking:)

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I cannot imagine things getting better before the election in NOV. If it goes the wrong way it will get much worse. The shortest time frame to normal I see is 5-6 months and I think that is optimistic even if everything breaks the right way. It think it is going to last a lot longer than a few months which is why I have not sold anything yet. I think it will be getting worse before it gets better. YMMV

PS are you throwing in the fireproof sealant into the ammo deal? LOL ;)
 
Last edited:
I think early next year, until then get a mantis X and dry fire and maybe a air soft gun/s that mimic what you ahve so you can train without wasting boolites
 
I think early next year, until then get a mantis X and dry fire and maybe a air soft gun/s that mimic what you ahve so you can train without wasting boolites
If it gets to bad I’ll go 100% 22lr. I’ve been stocking up since the Sandy hook prices got back to normal. If those 550 rd boxes started selling for 50+,,, I’ll retire:)
 
Last edited:
CMP has some ammo, but it's not the cheapest around. E.g., 9mm 147gr FMJ is basically $.50/round: https://estore.thecmp.org/Catalog/Item/4C9CS147FMJ-240
You can get 40 S&W FMJ about $.33/round from them.

They had 1000 round cases of Magtech 9mm 115gr FMJ for $253 free shipping about a month ago. I must have gotten one of the last cases available; a day or two after placing that order, they were out. At the time, the price of $.253/round was about the best you could find it for, IF you could find it in stock. It was not the easiest to stomach, but I did. Now, I look like someone who had a crystal ball...
 
Looking at PSA just now...that same 1K box of M855 I bought back in March for $419 is well over $200 more now...up at $659 and that is BEFORE shipping and tax, so probably at the $700 mark to your door...

...and people are buying it up!
 
The prices will NEVER come down, All ammo will be at lest $18 bucks around. Please see my ammo for sale thread:) I’ll replenish my supply in Jan when prices come back down.
 
I believe it will be at least 18-24 months. If Biden gets in I believe it will be a lot longer. I am set though except for shotgun stuff.
 
The prices will NEVER come down, All ammo will be at lest $18 bucks around. Please see my ammo for sale thread:) I’ll replenish my supply in Jan when prices come back down.

I bet $20 you prices are just as high in Jan 2021 if not higher. If that is your time table to buy back in I think you are going to be missing that ammo you are selling today.
 
Last edited:
So based on the Natchez sale on 115Gr Blaser Brass last night $299 +shipping and tax seems to be the buy it now price for ammo these days. Is anyone seeing anything lower that is actually in stock and ships?
 
So based on the Natchez sale on 115Gr Blaser Brass last night $299 +shipping and tax seems to be the buy it now price for ammo these days. Is anyone seeing anything lower that is actually in stock and ships?
well i have about 30 tabs open and i refresh them a few times an hour...
 
Back
Top Bottom