Ammo Pricing Crystal Ball for 2020

wvsig

wvsig

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Now that the Walmart evil ammo purge is almost complete I am a bit worried about the cost of ammo in the near and long term future. Walmart was a big purchaser and I am not sure who is going to step in an take on that volume. If no one steps up will ammo suppliers decrease production. We have had a good run over the last 2 years with ammo prices moving lower than I have seen in years. Common caliber stuff is dirt cheap. 9mm, 45 ACP and even 223/556 is cheaper now than it has been in a while. I slowed my reloading down to just a few calibers and particular rounds for particular guns. I have been buying more factory ammo for regular plinking and saving my reloading components which have not dropped in price in the same way.

They also set the bottom floor price for brick and mortar everyday retail. Now that they are gone who is going to set that floor? I see the deals going even more online. I see more and more big brick and mortar moving away from ammo because of its low margin. I think Walmart is dumping ammo because it doesn't make them money and it scores some points in suburban areas and cities that are less gun friendly but it is really the lack of margin that is driving it.

I personally think the prices have to go up. So I am going to continue to dollar cost avg my ammo buying and continue to maintain a decent stockpile so that if a panic or big price jump comes I can weather the storm. If I see good deals I will buy in bulk but otherwise just steady buying in case lots. I do this with reloading supplies as well.

So does anyone have any predictions for 2020? Is factory ammo going to continue to drop? Will there be panic buying as we head toward the 2020 Election? Where will prices go in 2020 and beyond?
 
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If’n I weren’t convinced of the same future scenario, I’d ‘a never dun what I dun did yesterday (and a bit more today). :(

My bet (and it literally is a bet) is that we’ve seen the bottom this week.
 
Political changes aside (like if Trump isn't reelected for any reason), I think it's a tossup on which way things will go.
The supply is still there.Who is going to ramp down their own production first, hurting themselves, so that other ammo mfg can make better margins?
Margins have to be close to zero now I assume since everything but 22 (cheap bulk was under 3 cents, now it is 3.5-4) and commie import ammo (import restrictions) or milsurp ammo (which has dried up) is cheaper than I have seen it in 20 years. Metals aren't cheaper than 20 yrs ago.

So I expect we will continue to see downward pressure on prices overall until somebody gives up on the business - either someone big or a bunch of second/third tier ammo mfgs.

There has been an oversupply of ARs for a few years now. The midrange has been killed, the high end is hurting, and the low end is still selling to make a buck where they can even though it is hurting the other segments. At least that's the way it looks to me.
 
Industries restrict production all the time in order to increase demand and raise prices. Oil, gas and coal are great examples. Why would the Ammo industry continue to employee people and use resources to make zero margin?
 
Meh, Walmart doesn’t bother me. They sold mainly a box at a time for rifle/pistol ammo to the casual shooter and maybe a case at a time to the clays shooters.

those folks will shift their buying to the LGS and grumble about the extra $1-2. But, since it’s an occasional luxury item, the demand won’t really drop.

I have a hard time believing that the volume shooter was buying much from Walmart anyway. With easy online bulk purchase, there’s no reason to buy from a big box store.
 
I think the thing about Walmart getting out is they do annual orders with set volumes.
They are ordering. X millions of rounds a month every month.

I agree that the volume shooter does not buy a lot from the but the columns shooter is not the foundation of the industry as a whole. I think we who participate in forums like this and shoot often fool ourselves into thinking we are the “shooting” community and we drive the markets the reality is we don’t.

The avg gun owner and there are more of them by a factor of millions do not buy the way we do. They don’t consume the way we do. They one at a time it through their local shop, Walmart or other sporting goods shop. The sheer number of them dwarf what we do. IMHO
 
I hate it but I’ve gotta agree with @wvsig. If even typical “serious” shooters were like us, how can we explain people paying what they do for ammo at gun shows?
 
So does anyone have any predictions for 2020?
i have one.
Is factory ammo going to continue to drop?
i don't know.
Will there be panic buying as we head toward the 2020 Election?
my one prediction: yes.
Where will prices go in 2020 and beyond?
Buzz Lightyear prediction: To Infinity, And Beyond
 
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You have to consider that they were 20% of ammo sales in the US. The removal of evil ammo is expected to drop them to around 6%. They owned 1/5th of the market. It would be impossible for their exit not to change the market. Which way it will move it remains to be seen.

I hope I am wrong and prices stay low but I agree with @Jeppo I think we have hit the bottom.
 
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JimP42 said:
So, to be safe, I should buy more now _and_ later. Well, twist my arm...
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Honestly I don't know. I have a feeling we should be buying more now vs later.
 
My prediction is that a Democrat will be president in 2020. We will enter the dark ages and it won't be through banning guns. The left will simply attack the 2A through ammo.

There will be ammo restriction through extreme taxation and/or background checks tied to firearms you admit to having. This will be a way to force a national firearms registry. Argentina, for example, only lets people but ammo for guns that are listed on their firearms registration, and only in very limited quantities per year.

Once those laws or executive orders are in place, the legal demand for civilian sales will plummet, manufacturing will be curtailed and prices will go up significantly. For a limited period of time, ammo components will continue to be unrestricted by govco, but demand will cause it to disappear off of shelves and prices will skyrocket. The black market for ammo will be scary and many people like us will buy any firearm for any cartridge just on the hope of having some quantity of ammo available.

I hope I'm wrong.
 
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I’m guessing ammo prices rise slowly until late summer. There’s a lot of it available and a lot of motivated buyers but only so much spare change available. What happens after that depends on the tone and the result of the summer campaigns.
 
I am not worried about Trump losing in 2020, it ain't gonna happen. I am worried about what is going on in Virginia and some other states.
I think loading component prices will probably continue to rise.
It is sort of amazing to me what effect government purchasing makes. For instance, for the past several years Federal Small Pistol Primers have been like hen's teeth. The FBI switched to Winchester PDX1 and Federal Primers are back in stock, in quantity.
 
Bill said:
I am not worried about Trump losing in 2020, it ain't gonna happen. I am worried about what is going on in Virginia and some other states.
I think loading component prices will probably continue to rise.
It is sort of amazing to me what effect government purchasing makes. For instance, for the past several years Federal Small Pistol Primers have been like hen's teeth. The FBI switched to Winchester PDX1 and Federal Primers are back in stock, in quantity.
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Yup and I am willing to bet not having as many of our troops in combat zones also is having an effect. Local changes will also have effects on the ammo market. Look a CA. Tons of online retailers will no longer ship ammo to CA because of the new requirements. Too many complications if someone purchases and cannot complete the purchase. It is not worth the time and hassle.
 
Jeppo said:
I hate it but I’ve gotta agree with @wvsig. If even typical “serious” shooters were like us, how can we explain people paying what they do for ammo at gun shows?
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Now Jeppo you have been here long enough to know its never a good idea to agree with me. ;)

Another thing I noticed is that there is limited chatter on other gun boards I am on about the Walmart Ammo closeout.
 
I don't see much of change until election time. If Trump is defeated, ammo and gun prices will sky rocket.

For me I have most of the guns I want. Ammo prices don't bother that much, I handload 95% of my stuff.
 
AR10ShooterinNC said:
I don't see much of change until election time. If Trump is defeated, ammo and gun prices will sky rocket.

For me I have most of the guns I want. Ammo prices don't bother that much, I handload 95% of my stuff.
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I think if Ammo prices skyrocket then reloading components will follow. That is what has happened in the past. Prices went up and it was hard to find power and primers. There is always brass and bullets seem to be stable enough but shortages and price gouging on the hazmat parts is likely if Ammo prices rise. So reloader will eventually be in the same lake just in a different boat. IMHO

I am also wondering if no annual contracts from Walmart will effect the market early in 2020. That is a lot of guaranteed volume for manufacturers to have lost.
 
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If, a big if, the RATS take both houses of Congress and the executive office, we’re in deep doo doo. They will not waste their power. See what they they did in 2009 when they rammed Obummercare through.
Long odds on that but......
 
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ladder13 said:
If, a big if, the RATS take both houses of Congress and the executive office, we’re in deep doo doo. They will not waste their power. See what they they did in 2009 when they rammed Obummercare through.
Long odds on that but......
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The only silver lining to the 2020 election's effect on ammo will be if we see the ammo companies ramp up production in early 2020 to meet later 2020 anticipated demand because it looks like the Dems are going to win. Trump wins again and they are left holding the bag without late 2020 and early 2021 panic buying and are forced to move the metal in 2021 at low prices. This is basically what happened with gun in 2018-2019. Over production and not "real" panic buying lead to low prices.
 
wvsig said:
The only silver lining to the 2020 election's effect on ammo will be if we see the ammo companies ramp up production in early 2020 to meet later 2020 anticipated demand because it looks like the Dems are going to win. Trump wins again and they are left holding the bag without late 2020 and early 2021 panic buying and are forced to move the metal in 2021 at low prices. This is basically what happened with gun in 2018-2019. Over production and not "real" panic buying lead to low prices.
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I agree that would be a silver lining on a bad situation, but there's almost zero incentive for ammo companies to ramp up. There's simply not enough downside for them if production lags behind demand because prices will go up until production increases or demand sags.
 
ladder13 said:
There seems to be a glut right now, I don’t see a ramp up just yet.
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I agree there is a glut right now but the election cycle is not even close to heating up. I personally would love it to stay the same.
 
I'm stocking up on reloading components. If prices go down I'll get more , go way up I'm ok. Stuff has long shelf life. Have not yet started using supplies purchased when it looked like Killlary might become Queen.
 
If you aren't reloading after the great Obama-era ammo faux-shortage, then you're probably either independently wealthly, and/or just don't shoot much or don't care to learn.
Continue to buy Walmart ammo......er, wait. Nope that's gone soon. Continue to buy a box at a time at the shooting range. Or stock up on bulk ammo and give me your brass :D

Eventually we'll be back to selling once-fired 9mm cases for ~0.10 each again, so I keep stacking it up.

Either way, I'll never run out of ammo and neither will my kids or their kids.

I have gallons of .38spl and I've only owned something in .38 for 2 years or so.
 
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Academy needs to dedicate another shelf in each store for handgun and SBR ammo...once I figure out exactly what that is.
 
Ikarus1 said:
keep it for now. About 1000 pcs of once-fired unprocessed 9mm goes for less than $35 shipped currently
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I must have over 100 pounds of various brass by now, I haven't weighed it since the about August. It's mostly 9mm.
 
Millie said:
I must have over 100 pounds of various brass by now, I haven't weighed it since the about August. It's mostly 9mm.
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sand at the sea. Last I checked one of the indoor ranges was selling a 5 gallon bucket of 9mm for under $100, which is about 8 or 9K cases IIRC. About a penny a piece.
 
dkmatthews said:
My prediction is that a Democrat will be president in 2020. We will enter the dark ages and it won't be through banning guns. The left will simply attack the 2A through ammo.

There will be ammo restriction through extreme taxation and/or background checks tied to firearms you admit to having. This will be a way to force a national firearms registry. Argentina, for example, only lets people but ammo for guns that are listed on their firearms registration, and only in very limited quantities per year.

Once those laws or executive orders are in place, the legal demand for civilian sales will plummet, manufacturing will be curtailed and prices will go up significantly. For a limited period of time, ammo components will continue to be unrestricted by govco, but demand will cause it to disappear off of shelves and prices will skyrocket. The black market for ammo will be scary and many people like us will buy any firearm for any cartridge just on the hope of having some quantity of ammo available.

I hope I'm wrong.
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When your ammo supply gets low enough best be choosing wise targets.
 
BatteryOaksBilly said:
Almost don't know how to say this without sounding goofy...….We are Not in the ammo market here. Enough and components to last our lifetime. We shoot Every Day......
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Not there yet, but working on it. Try to buy more than I shoot every month. Sounds wacky, but IMO long term it pays off.
 
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Ikarus1 said:
sand at the sea. Last I checked one of the indoor ranges was selling a 5 gallon bucket of 9mm for under $100, which is about 8 or 9K cases IIRC. About a penny a piece.
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If I could get it at that price, I wouldn't bother picking up my brass laying on the ground after a match. Im getting old, and getting up and down is getting to be a bit painfull..
 
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