Ammo panic - Is it real?

Jeppo

Jeppo

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Burt Gummer said:
can you use that rebate on some of the Walmart ammo I watched you buy in awe?
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No...
10% of what I paid wouldn’t amount to anything. :D
 
Oh is real, very real.

This is the deal, the big ammunition manufactures have things going on. Top four.
  1. Import of components
  2. Manufacturing Schedule
  3. Regional Work restrictions
  4. Distributor Back log
Components
Most powder, lead, copper comes from eastern Europe. Brass is typically from South America

Manufacturing Schedule
Lead times on seasons is typically 120 days to manufacture and 30 days to ship. This is a huge deal in the ammunition world. As a Distributor, you do not want 30.06, 7mmRemMag or 300WM and other like hunting rounds on your wearhouse until May-June to sale to hook and bullet shops in July. This causes a ammunition factory to have the 180 day cycle start in May, and going backwards, they start hunting ammo for the following year in December. This means you have one month of tooling swap out, and components come in for manufacturing. Thats NOW for .556, 9mm and the common "range" ammo

Regional Work restrictions and Distributor Back log
Go hand and hand. RSR group as a example has a order I placed on 3/31 and it has not shipped. RSR typically ships the same day of the order. I asked Friday whats up and this is my reply.
"
Currently we are shipping orders from the 26th of March today. Your order has the inventory committed to your company and are in the que to ship.

Sorry for the delay.

It is somewhat like predicting the weather at this point as to when we are going to be “caught up” and back to our normal fast shipping. The first thing that will have to happen is we will have to be back to operating at full staff in the warehouse. That won’t happen until the emergency order is lifted for the city, county and state. We do not have a projection for when that could occur. Although the firearms industry has been considered “essential” we still have to operate under the emergency order guidelines which requires us to maintain 6 feet of space between employees which impacts the number of employees that can be in the warehouse."

All the distributors I work with are in this same boat or worse.

So yeah, its a real issue that will be felt for the rest of 2020.
 
JBoyette said:
To this question,
Auto Scheduling with a Marketing Software.
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That was my thinking too. The wife was noticing sales at the grocery store on basics that people would buy anyway even at not on-sale prices. I guessed they just had the sale in the pipeline and the materials come to the store and the guys in the store put the signs out and the registers auto-adust just like in non-plague times.
 
AppFan said:
On the positive side my range is shut down so I don’t need to replenish right now....
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I’ve been alternating between my Ruger Mark IV Target with T&J Tactical Integral Suppressor, Volquartsen trigger kit and Vortex Venom and Ruger 10/22.
d0048f2b75b2cdce2e4bdf4fc14a6544.jpg


Our indoor ranges are closed. My range in the backyard is not. My outdoor club is also still open.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
CDR_Glock said:
I’ve been alternating between my Ruger Mark IV Target with T&J Tactical Integral Suppressor, Volquartsen trigger kit and Vortex Venom and Ruger 10/22.
d0048f2b75b2cdce2e4bdf4fc14a6544.jpg


Our indoor ranges are closed. My range in the backyard is not. My outdoor club is also still open.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
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Looks good. I made the mistake of moving from a county only property with woods behind it to a inside the city limits small lot a couple years ago. My shooting at home days are over unless someone deserves it :)
My range is RCWA and the subject of a long thread on the forum and it’s overreaching board.
 
Jeppo said:
If every factory is working 24/7,
If every round is sold, at inflated prices, before it’s even manufactured...

Why would Winchester just now implement a rebate? :confused:
https://winchester.com/Rebates/2020-Centerfire-Pistol-Rebate
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I assume that was scheduled to roll out long before the COVID 19 Outbreak. I agree with @JBoyette that the real problem becomes raw materials and production schedule. Everyone runs just in time inventory. You lose money in today's economy stockpiling raw materials in the manufacturing world. I used to live in KY where the put together automotive parts for Toyota and the finished part that left the line in the morning was going into a new Camry later that day. The components for those parts came in in the same manner. I witnessed the same thing at the BMW plant in Spartansburg/Greenville.

When any part of the process is disrupted the entire supply chain of the finished products is effected. The increase in demand + the disruption in the flow of raw materials on top of production problems equals what we have now. The mass panic on the consumer end just exacerbates it. Which I why I keep posting available ammo deals. LOL I am not buying because I cannot shoot. I don't have a home range. My local outdoor and indoor ranges are closed so my poor ammo just sits. :(
 
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Jayne said:
That was my thinking too. The wife was noticing sales at the grocery store on basics that people would buy anyway even at not on-sale prices. I guessed they just had the sale in the pipeline and the materials come to the store and the guys in the store put the signs out and the registers auto-adust just like in non-plague times.
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At the same time some of the grocery stores in my area are not running weekly ads. Here Food Lion is still running their ad but Ingles is not. I don't think Lowes is publishing them either.
 
Better question is, are rebates real?
 
I went and looked at some wholesalers for primers and powder on line. The primers for the most part were gone and the "good" powder was not in stock. Was thinking about getting a few friend that reload together to get a group order to absorb the shipping and hazmat fees.
 
wvsig said:
I assume that was scheduled to roll out long before the COVID 19 Outbreak. I agree with @JBoyette that the real problem becomes raw materials and production schedule. Everyone runs just in time inventory. You lose money in today's economy stockpiling raw materials in the manufacturing world. I used to live in KY where the put together automotive parts for Toyota and the finished part that left the line in the morning was going into a new Camry later that day. The components for those parts came in in the same manner. I witnessed the same thing at the BMW plant in Spartansburg/Greenville.

When any part of the process is disrupted the entire supply chain of the finished products is effected. The increase in demand + the disruption in the flow of raw materials on top of production problems equals what we have now. The mass panic on the consumer end just exacerbates it. Which I why I keep posting available ammo deals. LOL I am not buying because I cannot shoot. I don't have a home range. My local outdoor and indoor ranges are closed so my poor ammo just sits. :(
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JIT is a concept that will soon be proven to be a bad model to use. I think this outbreak will destroy it and prove its a stupid model.
 
Catfish said:
Better question is, are rebates real?
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I have not submitted a Winchester one recently. The last one I did is still pending with Browning which will be the same people Olin. They received it 3/30/2020. 6-8 weeks is the stated turn time.
 
JBoyette said:
JIT is a concept that will soon be proven to be a bad model to use. I think this outbreak will destroy it and prove its a stupid model.
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I completely disagree with that. I think that the advantages in overall cost saving outweigh the old model. Retail for instance cannot survive with large standing inventories that do not turnover fast. The the low pricing we see is due to just in time inventory. What you will see is some amount of hedging against a shortage or production disruption but even at this point JIT is saving companies Billons. Imagine how much greater the loss in the Automotive industry would be if they were sitting a stock pile of completed parts.
 
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JIT won't go anywhere. It can't, it has been proven to work for retailers, assembly factories and, especially the automotive industry. No one wants, or can afford, dead inventory sitting on a shelf.
 
Just In Time manufacturing will never go away. We may see better reaction to forecasting in the future but if it’s computer generated even that will not change. Almost everyone uses JIT but the truth is very low cost items benefit more from bulk negotiated purchases if there are not expiration dates.
 
JBoyette said:
JIT is a concept that will soon be proven to be a bad model to use. I think this outbreak will destroy it and prove its a stupid model.
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I was just discussing this with my wife yesterday. JIT and global supply chain creates a lot of critical paths, aka failure points. It's great for streamlining cost when the economy is good and everyone is doing well. But, it's not so good for robustness and resiliency. It's a carry over from the high flying '80's and '90's, faster, cheaper. And helped get us to where we are today, dependent on others instead of independent and self reliant.
 
BlackGun said:
Just In Time manufacturing will never go away. We may see better reaction to forecasting in the future but if it’s computer generated even that will not change. Almost everyone uses JIT but the truth is very low cost items benefit more from bulk negotiated purchases if there are not expiration dates.
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Not when you factor in having to warehouse them. Once you purchase and warehouse something they become like lifestock. You have to feed them until the day you slaughter them. Most things in the US economy no matter how large or small the business is is bought on margin. The longer it sits the more it costs. Add to that the cost of warehousing space and it even without expiration dates it makes no sense to warehouse the items. This is not even accounting for innovation and new products which make the ones you warehouse obsolete. JIT inventory is here to stay because it works for the way the US and the rest of the world consumes goods. Even more so at the low end. When supply chains are running without a pandemic it is more cost effective to manufacture new items in bulk than it is to warehouse.
 
georgel said:
I was just discussing this with my wife yesterday. JIT and global supply chain creates a lot of critical paths, aka failure points. It's great for streamlining cost when the economy is good and everyone is doing well. But, it's not so good for robustness and resiliency. It's a carry over from the high flying '80's and '90's, faster, cheaper. And helped get us to where we are today, dependent on others instead of independent and self reliant.
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That is not correct. The concept of JIT does not come from the 80's. It is rooted in the post WWI economy. It is embedded in the basic concepts taught in Econ 101. It is why the Japaneses have an economy. Deming... taught them how to do it. Toyota has been eating the Big 3s lunch since then. So much so they all had to adopt it to compete. Walmart is what it is because they are the kings of JIT. They are logistic and trucking company who happens to own retail outlets. Sorry but JIT is not going anywhere. A worldwide pandemic does not change the dynamics of everyday economics.
 
wvsig said:
My local outdoor and indoor ranges are closed so my poor ammo just sits. :(
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Awwww....if you ever want to take a really loonngg drive, come shoot at Jim's in Fayetteville, or in my woods for a little shorter drive! lol.
 
I was out today at Triple Target in Randolph county and I have NEVER seen that many folks out blasting there at one time ever! I watched some in groups to from the Rifle range to the pistol range and then to the shotgun area.

Most all were obviously NEW shooters, with NEW Guns and seemingly NO clue!
 
Ben Jefferson said:
I was out today at Triple Target in Randolph county and I have NEVER seen that many folks out blasting there at one time ever! I watched some in groups to from the Rifle range to the pistol range and then to the shotgun area.

Most all were obviously NEW shooters, with NEW Guns and seemingly NO clue!
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Scary times.
 
Ben Jefferson said:
I was out today at Triple Target in Randolph county and I have NEVER seen that many folks out blasting there at one time ever! I watched some in groups to from the Rifle range to the pistol range and then to the shotgun area.

Most all were obviously NEW shooters, with NEW Guns and seemingly NO clue!
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Did you offer to help? I get what you are saying - safety first and always - but no one was born with a firearm in hand. And these folks are in dire need of good instruction and encouragement. And maybe come November, a few more people willing to vote to keep their 2A rights which benefits us all.

The first day I came out to Front Line Defense by myself on a weekday - I was scared sh - you know. I knew I was going to jam something and have to sit there until someone showed up to help. Didn't happen, but I appreciated that no one out there ever made me feel like an ass, though maybe I was just lucky.

Anyway, just seems like it would be prudent if not charitable to welcome the new wave (safely) into the fold; and form them rather than dismiss them, even if their motives might not be pure.
 
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GreatGazoo said:
Did you offer to help?
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Not bashing but these are people you don't know. How do you effectively give instruction 6ft away? Sorry, but I like to be close to control any unsafe issues immediately, not be a target.

Good suggestion but it's problematic in today's situation.
 
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rdinatal said:
Not bashing but these are people you don't know. How do you effectively give instruction 6ft away? Sorry, but I like to be close to control any unsafe issues immediately, not be a target.

Good suggestion but it's problematic in today's situation.
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Understood. I was not trying to suggest that Ben (or anyone) take on "feeding the world" or be obliged to train the unwashed masses. But even at 6', I think realizing that there might be a lot of scared folks - perhaps somewhat naively trying to do the right thing and maybe exercising a bit of bluster to cover their vulnerability - and offering a supporting welcome (geez, I'm sounding like a "greeter") would be a good thing for them as well as for us who value 2A continuity.

I think this could be an excellent opportunity for education to a large number of people who might otherwise be dismissive, not to mention helping to ensure they and others around them are safer.
 
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