Ammo talk during covid-19

Daniel Honeycutt

Daniel Honeycutt

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Over the past few months the government has been implementing new laws and restrictions with little to no pushback. Who knows when this will stop because I cannot tell you of a time when the government has relinquished any power. I’m not trying to get in a debate over this practice but I will state I believe the government was never designed to be big. As a result of everything going on the price of ammo and the availability of it has been affected. Do you believe this will come back to pre-virus conditions or will it become more difficult with the election coming up. I’m currently good on my inventory but I don’t feel comfortable target shooting with the family if replacement ammo is going to continue to rise in price. What are your thoughts on the current ammo situation? Will it continue to rise in cost, become more difficult to find, or just ride it out as this will pass?
 
I think IF it comes down to pre-Covid prices it’ll be a couple years. Manufacturers have been keeping up it seems, I can find ammo but it’s 50% more expensive than what I was paying two months ago.
 
Learn to reload, save your brass, scrounge junkyards for lead weights, get a forge and some molds. Keep an appropriate for you amount of power and primers. Get basic reloading equipment. Now you are hedged against a commercial factory ammo shortage that could go on for a long time.

If you don't have one, get a .22. Practice and fun time with that.

Keep in mind that a lot of people who didn't own guns just bought their first one(s). They're competing with you for available stock.

I'm pretty sure this will pass, but I'm also hedged against some pretty bad scenarios.

We rode out the Obama years, and I expect we'll ride this out too.
 
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Daniel Honeycutt said:
Over the past few months the government has been implementing new laws and restrictions with little to no pushback. Who knows when this will stop because I cannot tell you of a time when the government has relinquished any power. I’m not trying to get in a debate over this practice but I will state I believe the government was never designed to be big. As a result of everything going on the price of ammo and the availability of it has been affected. Do you believe this will come back to pre-virus conditions or will it become more difficult with the election coming up. I’m currently good on my inventory but I don’t feel comfortable target shooting with the family if replacement ammo is going to continue to rise in price. What are your thoughts on the current ammo situation? Will it continue to rise in cost, become more difficult to find, or just ride it out as this will pass?
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In my opinion, yes, it will get back to normal again soon. More people have purchased firearms in the last few months that have never owned one prior, so this will have at least a minor impact on the view of firearms for personal protection. On top of that, there have been a few places where local governments have tried to either stop, or slow firearms sales, and were quickly sued and the courts found in the gun stores favor. And, not to mention that this would have been a perfect time to deem firearm sales as "non-essential", yet it wasnt.

What I do think will happen is demand will stay high until they loosen some of the stay at home orders, and then it will slowly come back. But, being an election year, it wont come back to "normal" for a while. If Trump gets reelected, then I see there actually being a buyers market sometime late 2021 as the pandemic crap will be old news, and there will be a bunch of new gun owners who suddenly realize they dont need some of what they bought. Kinda like how long guns get cheap at the end of deer season.
 
Yesterday, for the first time ever, I visited an Academy Sports store. Nice store, lots of clothing and bat and ball stuff. The gun section looked sort of bare with a lot of empty spaces. Prices on some of the guns seemed very reasonable. The ammo section was nearly bare. The only handgun ammo was some 25 ACP, .32 Auto, 2 boxes of steel case 40 S&W, and 3 boxes of 45 Colt personal protection ammo. There were 6 boxes of no name .223/5.56 and several boxes of larger caliber hunting ammo. No 22 LR or 22 Magnum ammo to be found.
 
Daniel Honeycutt said:
What are your thoughts on the current ammo situation? Will it continue to rise in cost, become more difficult to find, or just ride it out as this will pass?
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Daniel I'm not lobbing this at you, but more at gun owners in general. While we tend to remember (CTD's $100 PMAGs after Sandy Hook, or the "good old days" when a Mosin could be had for 30 dollars), we also seem to forget that this stuff is cyclical ... as is this topic on gun forums everywhere. Every election year there's an inevitable sky-is-falling run on guns, ammo, and gear. Especially ammo. If things largely return to normal soon post-C19 and we're able to salvage some of our spring or summer (and that's a big if), I don't see prices or supplies following suit with November right around the corner. We may see a temporary spike in secondhand/private ammo sales due to C19's impacts, as some folks who spent too much on or bought too much try to offload some ammo and recoup some cash. But again, I think that will largely be overshadowed by the election and the inevitable doom, gloom, and end-of-days mentality of many gun owners when it comes to voting. I'm hopeful Trump will win reelection, which should mean another couple good years for ammo. If he loses, well ... let's just say there will be a lot more threads like this. And a lot more people talking about the good old days of $100 PMAGs. Let's hope not.

Daniel Honeycutt said:
I’m currently good on my inventory
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That's good to hear. Speaking of a couple years, 2018 and 2019 were "golden" years for stockpiling ammo, and there's really no excuse for anyone not to have taken advantage of the wide availability and low costs, whether one's budget was a box or a case per month. Get while the gettin's good so you can ride out these weathered times and keep shooting, training, and spending time exercising your rights with loved ones.
 
bigfelipe said:
I always find it funny when folks say to learn how to reload or cast during a shortage. As though reloading supplies aren't affected as well.

It's akin to all the folks thinking they are going to just become hunters if there is a food shortage...
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I agree on both parts. Most reloaders that I know got into it for one of two reasons, to make a ton of ammo because they shoot a lot, or to supplement their stash in case of a spike in prices/rarity on the market. When a run on ammo like this happens, both of those types of reloaders go into full swing as well.

And as far as becoming hunters: Reminds me of an article I read on a preppers forum once that basically laid out exactly how much meat someone would have to harvest to feed a family. Squirrel has about 150 calories per 3 ozs, so on a normal squirrel, what, 2 servings tops? So an average adult needs 2k calories per day, you would need 8 squirrels per adult, per day. And that is just calories, not all the other nutrients we need to survive long term. And deer? Like someone who has never hunted before is suddenly going to become more successful in the field than countryboys who sometimes go out for days without seeing a tail at all.
 
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B00ger said:
I agree on both parts. Most reloaders that I know got into it for one of two reasons, to make a ton of ammo because they shoot a lot, or to supplement their stash in case of a spike in prices/rarity on the market. When a run on ammo like this happens, both of those types of reloaders go into full swing as well.

And as far as becoming hunters: Reminds me of an article I read on a preppers forum once that basically laid out exactly how much meat someone would have to harvest to feed a family. Squirrel has about 150 calories per serving...maybe what, 2 servings per 3oz serving...so on a normal squirrel, what, 2 servings tops? So an average adult needs 2k calories per day, you would need 8 squirrels per adult, per day. And that is just calories, not all the other nutrients we need to survive long term. And deer? Like someone who has never hunted before is suddenly going to become more successful in the field than countryboys who sometimes go out for days without seeing a tail at all.
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The best one is the "find a local source for lead wheelweights, just ask mechanics"... Lol. That well dried up a couple decades ago.
 
bigfelipe said:
The best one is the "find a local source for lead wheelweights, just ask mechanics"... Lol. That well dried up a couple decades ago.
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Heck, I remember hearing that as well!

On the other hand, I was amused by how amazed the people in "The Walking Dead" were when that nerdy guy figured out a way to make *gasp* a bullet. With how many empty houses, empty gun shops, and all that in the south, I found it laughable that no one found even a little Lee Single stage sitting in someones garage after all the scrounging these people supposedly did.
 
bigfelipe said:
I always find it funny when folks say to learn how to reload or cast during a shortage. As though reloading supplies aren't affected as well.

It's akin to all the folks thinking they are going to just become hunters if there is a food shortage...
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To clarify my post, in my opinion it's a better answer to tell someone to learn to fish, even during a famine, than to say nothing of value and let him wait for the market to relent someday. By getting them going in the pursuit of self betterment they might emerge out the outside of this and share what they know and help someone else who finds themselves behind the curve someday.

The OP wanted our opinions on what we expect from the current situation, and mentioned he might not be comfortable using his current supply. Telling him to keep his brass and learn to reload is the first step in his not having those thoughts as frequently anymore. Seems like helpful advice to me.
 
B00ger said:
Heck, I remember hearing that as well!

On the other hand, I was amused by how amazed the people in "The Walking Dead" were when that nerdy guy figured out a way to make *gasp* a bullet. With how many empty houses, empty gun shops, and all that in the south, I found it laughable that no one found even a little Lee Single stage sitting in someones garage after all the scrounging these people supposedly did.
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The glocks in TWD also made "hammer locked back" noises when the character pointing it was really serious about threatening someone. Clearly a show written by people who don't care about guns, except if they're banning them. Reloading ammo with household tools is witchcraft black magic to these people.
 
Geezer said:
Yesterday, for the first time ever, I visited an Academy Sports store. Nice store, lots of clothing and bat and ball stuff. The gun section looked sort of bare with a lot of empty spaces. Prices on some of the guns seemed very reasonable. The ammo section was nearly bare. The only handgun ammo was some 25 ACP, .32 Auto, 2 boxes of steel case 40 S&W, and 3 boxes of 45 Colt personal protection ammo. There were 6 boxes of no name .223/5.56 and several boxes of larger caliber hunting ammo. No 22 LR or 22 Magnum ammo to be found.
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Order this online and pick it up in the store or have it shipped for free (although i'm sure you have plenty of 22lr)
https://www.academy.com/shop/pdp/fe...FF|RTN|4900349|STND|MULTI|SITEWIDE|||13666165

2750 rounds should keep you busy for a while.


FWIW we tried to visit the Academy in Kannapolis on Sunday morning and the line was OUT THE DOOR..........so I said Hail to the Nawww to the no no no and left.
 
Ikarus1 said:
Order this online and pick it up in the store or have it shipped for free (although i'm sure you have plenty of 22lr)
https://www.academy.com/shop/pdp/federal-premium-champion-22-lr-36-grain-rimfire-ammunition?utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=WikiArms,+Inc&utm_content=13666165&utm_source=CJ&utm_term=&cjevent=b5c913fa849c11ea816802b60a24060f&linkName=Academy+Sports+&+Outdoors+Product+Feed+-+April+2019+Update&ogmap=AFF|RTN|4900349|STND|MULTI|SITEWIDE|||13666165

2750 rounds should keep you busy for a while.


FWIW we tried to visit the Academy in Kannapolis on Sunday morning and the line was OUT THE DOOR..........so I said Hail to the Nawww to the no no no and left.
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my 22lr is good to go, close to 20,000 cci mini mag and 30,000 standard 22lr. Thanks for the information
 
Daniel Honeycutt said:
my 22lr is good to go, close to 20,000 cci mini mag and 30,000 standard 22lr. Thanks for the information
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I would still replace what you shoot. Day might come where it's not available anywhere (not like now...) or you need to do a stool sample, retina scan, and full DNA test ala California to purchase ammo.
 
I also dont think there is anything wrong with slowing consumption a bit during this time, but dont neglect the range all together if you can help it. In my experience, shooting (especially pistols) is a perishable skill. Sometimes when I go to the range I find myself just slinging lead because its fun to hear gun go bang. I stop really paying attention to technique. While totally fine and fun, it isnt really helpful. So now during all this mess when supplies are a bit harder to replace, its good to be more focused on how you are shooting than just making gun go bang.
 
Ikarus1 said:
Mine's free and 5% discounted due to having an Academy card. Traded in my Cabela's for it a while back. Pay off the balance at the end of the month.
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I'm generally not a fan of store cards, but this piques my interest. How the pricing work out w/ all discounts included vs shopping bulk as say SGAmmo or semi local at the OL?
 
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Timfoilhat said:
I'm generally not a fan of store cards, but this piques my interest. How the pricing work out w/ all discounts included vs shopping bulk as say SGAmmo or semi local at the OL?
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considering neither one has anything remotely in stock for under .20 a round (9mm brass) and I am not paying SG's relatively expensive shipping costs......or driving to High Point (70 miles for me) I'd say it's working out well. Is Outdoor Limited even doing order-to-pickups anymore?
 
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Ammo is not going to come back down to what it was at the end of 2019 anytime soon. When you look at it and adjust for inflation we were playing the lowest price for ammo in about 25 years. Even taking the Walmart purge out of the equation ammo was insanely cheap. I paid less than $.18 a round for Federal 45 ACP with their black box rebate and was paying $.27 a round pretty regularly. 9mm was as low as $.12 sometimes and just about everywhere for $.15. This is the price for brass cased stuff not steel or alum cased ammo. This was everything from Winchester, Federal, Geco, S&B, Browning etc...

Whenever there is a run like this the market shows what they are willing to pay when there is scarcity. Everyone in the supply chain sets a new normal moving the price up. If people continue to pay then the price will stay high. It generally takes 3 to 6 months for the panic buying to stop and for production to get to the point where it is out pacing buying at higher prices. Then prices start to come down a bit to increase volume until they hit a bottom. Even prior to the COVID-19 outbreak I predicted that ammo prices would rise in 2020. COVID-19 seems to have moved it to warp speed. With the election coming up and this thing most likely not going away for the next 6 months I would say that higher ammo prices are here to stay until 2021. If the Dems win we could even see it push higher. If Trumps wins you will see it level off sometime in 2021 depending on who controls The Congress.

I am still seeing 9mm ammo in the $.16 to $.20 range depending on what you are buying. It does not stay in stock long. You might have to do a rebate or join something like Activejunky or get a store CC but there are ways to get that price down. For example right now if you buy 13 boxes of WWB 9mm 115GR 200 round count boxes for $39.99. That is $520 before tax with free shipping. You will get a $50 rebate from Winchester. If you are a Bass Pro Club Member you get another 2% which $10. Activejunky will give you 2% on ammo so you get another $10. So you have $556.26 with NC tax Minus $70 in rebates. That gets you to $486.26 for 2600 rounds. That is $.187 a round out the door. Now that is not $.11 but it is not $.27+ that lots of people are charging and people are paying. It is about a 25% increase over pre-COVID-19 prices. Doing similar things can get you 45 ACP under $.30 a round.

This IMHO is going to be as good as it gets for the next 6 months. Right now the only people who have realistic pricing are the big retailers who have direct contracts with manufacturers and are not buying out of the distribution networks. One can assume that they have annual contracts with built in pricing. People like SGammo and OL are getting killed because they are in the open market where stock is low and demand is insane. I am not sure when places like this will be able to get back to normal pricing.

People are now suggesting getting into reloading. The problem there is that the panic has already moved to that market as well. Powder is hard to find. Good luck getting primers at a fair price. All those free hazmat shipping deals are gone. I can't find any FMJ 45 ACP bullets right now. The best I can do it plated bullets from Xtreme. RMR bullets can't keep 9mm in stock and is shipping massive amounts. Normally orders ship next day it took me almost 3 weeks to get 3,000 9mm bullets. So getting onto the reloading train is going to be hard. The best case scenario is to have stockpiled enough on both sides of the market to sustain.

I keep reloading supplies on hand and have factory ammo bought cheap and stocked deep. I can't even shoot right now because all of my local ranges are shut down but I am still on the lookout for a cheap deal. I will replenish my stash as I shoot and come across the right deals and I suggest others do the same. I have always advocated dollar cost avg for ammo. If you set a par and maintain it by buying case lots you will not get caught with your pants down. If you keep buying in any market at the best price you can it will even out in the long run. Yes some will be higher than you want but you will not be playing catch up like so many people are right now. You might run low for a minute but not for too long. If you have reloading as a back up or factory ammo as a back up you can survive a long time when prices are artificially inflated.
 
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FWIW it took 20 days for Xtreme to ship an order recently. o_O
 
georgel said:
FWIW it took 20 days for Xtreme to ship an order recently. o_O
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Everyone is getting killed. They can't get it out the door fast enough. In some ways I a surprised that prices have not gone even higher.
 
Timfoilhat said:
To clarify my post, in my opinion it's a better answer to tell someone to learn to fish, even during a famine, than to say nothing of value and let him wait for the market to relent someday. By getting them going in the pursuit of self betterment they might emerge out the outside of this and share what they know and help someone else who finds themselves behind the curve someday.

The OP wanted our opinions on what we expect from the current situation, and mentioned he might not be comfortable using his current supply. Telling him to keep his brass and learn to reload is the first step in his not having those thoughts as frequently anymore. Seems like helpful advice to me.
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Not calling you out specifically. That's why I didn't quote you. That said, currently it's moot. Too late to get into the reloading game to play catch-up. Same for casting. Unprepared is unprepared. Reloading never really works out to be a big cost savings anyway. It's just another tool in the box...
 
bigfelipe said:
Not calling you out specifically. That's why I didn't quote you. That said, currently it's moot. Too late to get into the reloading game to play catch-up. Same for casting. Unprepared is unprepared. Reloading never really works out to be a big cost savings anyway. It's just another tool in the box...
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reloading pistol saves big when you make your own projectiles :D

IIRC on my reloading spreadsheet current costs to reload .38SPL is down around the same price as .22lr currently costs (5.5-6 cents) and is a WHOLE lot more fun especially out of a levergun.
 
Ikarus1 said:
reloading pistol saves big when you make your own projectiles :D

IIRC on my reloading spreadsheet current costs to reload .38SPL is down around the same price as .22lr currently costs (5.5-6 cents) and is a WHOLE lot more fun especially out of a levergun.
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I think yall are still arguing parallel to each other. Yes, you can make .38 ammo for .05 per round, but often the outcome is shooting far more at the range. If I spent 10 bucks for 100 rounds, Ill go shoot 100 rounds. if I reload 300 rounds for $10, Ill go to the range and shoot 300 rounds "because its cheap"...net outcome is the same dollar amount being spent.

Two months ago, when there wasnt a massive panic, getting into reloading would have been fine. Suppliers had projectiles, lead, powder, brass, primers, you name it. Today, it takes a lot of work to find the basics, especially if you have no idea where to start.
 
B00ger said:
And deer? Like someone who has never hunted before is suddenly going to become more successful in the field than countryboys who sometimes go out for days without seeing a tail at all.
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LoL...this is why I hope to get out there with some hunters and see if I think I could actually do it, and then learn how to do it before the zombies eat all the food in the grocery stores....I hope the zombies give me a long time to learn!!
 
Millie said:
LoL...this is why I hope to get out there with some hunters and see if I think I could actually do it, and then learn how to do it before the zombies eat all the food in the grocery stores....I hope the zombies give me a long time to learn!!
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Well, your big hope is those that wander around your yard. One deer butchered and you would be set for a while!
 
Millie said:
LoL...this is why I hope to get out there with some hunters and see if I think I could actually do it, and then learn how to do it before the zombies eat all the food in the grocery stores....I hope the zombies give me a long time to learn!!
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Did you say there were deer in your area? I forgetted already.
 
B00ger said:
I think yall are still arguing parallel to each other. Yes, you can make .38 ammo for .05 per round, but often the outcome is shooting far more at the range. If I spent 10 bucks for 100 rounds, Ill go shoot 100 rounds. if I reload 300 rounds for $10, Ill go to the range and shoot 300 rounds "because its cheap"...net outcome is the same dollar amount being spent.

Two months ago, when there wasnt a massive panic, getting into reloading would have been fine. Suppliers had projectiles, lead, powder, brass, primers, you name it. Today, it takes a lot of work to find the basics, especially if you have no idea where to start.
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I agree with this 100%. In the end you do not save money you shoot more. Everyone has a "gun budget". An amount of money they can spend on shooting. If that number is $100 you will shoot $100 worth of ammo no matter what it cost per round. If you "saved" money by reloading your ammo you will simply shoot more. Out of pocket cost is the same. I have saved ZERO money reloading. In fact I would argue if anything it cost me money because I have to keep reloading components in inventory in addition to factory ammo. LOL
 
Daniel Honeycutt said:
Over the past few months the government has been implementing new laws and restrictions with little to no pushback. Who knows when this will stop because I cannot tell you of a time when the government has relinquished any power. I’m not trying to get in a debate over this practice but I will state I believe the government was never designed to be big. As a result of everything going on the price of ammo and the availability of it has been affected. Do you believe this will come back to pre-virus conditions or will it become more difficult with the election coming up. I’m currently good on my inventory but I don’t feel comfortable target shooting with the family if replacement ammo is going to continue to rise in price. What are your thoughts on the current ammo situation? Will it continue to rise in cost, become more difficult to find, or just ride it out as this will pass?
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It will NEVER come back to pre-virus conditions. Well i'm pretty well set as my avatar is about 4 years old. But when I run out plan B involves a Dillon 55B
 
The only time I buy ammo is when I don't have the brass to re-load. I bought a bunch of 300 BO before the virus set in [I already have the die set]. The other day I ordered 7.62x54R 6 20 round boxes brass/boxer, I already had the die set, It was in stock and should arrive here in the next couple of days, at what I thought was a good price. I'll get some boolitz later after I empty out the new brass. I can cast my own boolitz, There is a guy here selling lead at a really good price I think .80/lb u pick up, he's about 45 min from my house, cheapest I've seen in a long time. I've been selling reloading stuff that I have too much of [Yes it is possible to have too much].
 
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