I have had about all this insanity I can take.....

tanstaafl72555

tanstaafl72555

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJI?p=^DJI

The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Old quote by ... I think Benjamin Baruch, but I don't remember. This is totally insane, though. The market rallies 700 points on news the unemployment rate is "ONLY" 13%.

I swear if I had some discretionary cash I would short the minis.
 
I don't have much spare cash either, but seeing DOW drop by 1/3 this year only to go most of they way back up... I'm wondering if i should reclassify a couple thousand as "entertainment" money and justify it as a new hobby.
 
I went back in some when the dow fell past 20k. I keep thinking this is insane, but it just keeps being insane. No idea when to get back out and watch it fall.
 
One thing to consider is the DJIA, aka DOW is only 30 corporations while the S&P 500 is 500 corporations and the Russel 2000 is 2000 corporations.
When folks buy or sell assets that are individual stocks in the above components or in mutual funds that track the same indices, that will also cause the averages to rise and fall accordingly.
 
Button Pusher said:
One thing to consider is the DJIA, aka DOW is only 30 corporations while the S&P 500 is 500 corporations and the Russel 2000 is 2000 corporations.
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Indeed. That’s why the S&P is ONLY up 2.9% today vs 3.6% for the Dow. :)
 
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I did my quarterly spreadsheet update yesterday and with the fall and rebound I'm down about 5% for the year. Seems not so bad all things considered. However, those dollars are now worth less. All that money printing and debt and its' future impact on the value of the USD means that while the numbers on the spreadsheet aren't all that lower, the purchasing power of that money is forever damaged.

The markets are numerically recovering, but the power behind those numbers is diminishing.
 
investors seeing a bright future for the economy so they want to be in "thinking they are buying low" - Personally I think lot of the companies are over extended and overpriced.
Also, investors know that 2 trillion dollars got printed to shore up teh economy and hence they think the consumers will be spending as soon as the States open fully - We are a consumer driven economy after all.
 
Jayne said:
I did my quarterly spreadsheet update yesterday and with the fall and rebound I'm down about 5% for the year. Seems not so bad all things considered. However, those dollars are now worth less. All that money printing and debt and its' future impact on the value of the USD means that while the numbers on the spreadsheet aren't all that lower, the purchasing power of that money is forever damaged.

The markets are numerically recovering, but the power behind those numbers is diminishing.
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https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

Bingo. They are numerically recovering because of all the funny money that Uncle Sugar pumped into it. They covered the bad debts of several hedge funds by buying up their junk grade bonds, not at market price, but at a profit price.

Jerome Powell committing theft and the biggest wealth transfer in history.

fed_balance.jpg
 
Another day like today and I’ll be about even with where I was when the markets started to crater in February.
 
I moved mine into mostly money market the first Monday that the Dow dropped in March. I was down 8% at worst thru most of it, but I kept contributions in my normal sectors. Today I was back up to where I was before, and I moved 75% of my 401K into money market stability funds. I plan on using it to build a house, and I really thing 401Ks will be a thing of the past soon. After all, it's a creation of the IRS and we all see how well that's going. Still waiting on my refund going on 3 months now. Nobody is retiring who isn't already independently wealthy at this point.

I'd rather a fence, cattle, and some chickens at this point.
 
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kcult said:
Does it say anything about us hundredaires?
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"old" financial sayings that cover today's numbers:

1. don't fight the ticker.
2. ask six economists, get seven answers.
3. the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.
 
turkeydance said:
"old" financial sayings that cover today's numbers:

1. don't fight the ticker.
2. ask six economists, get seven answers.
3. the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets.
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And Rockefeller said he always sold before the market topped out.
 
I let mine ride, knowing it had to come back.

Today it is higher then it has ever been.


Now keep going in that same direction.
 
The 401k's are not going anywhere, in my opinion. Here is why, you get the tax deduction for your contributions and will pay taxes on your distributions that are larger then the contributions you made each year. With the defined benefits plans aka pensions being replaced by 401k plans with some matching employer money, that is a good thing. Many companies stopped matching contributions, some will match but only post it to your account at the end of the year, if you leave the job before the end of the year, you will not receiver the match.
 
Since a lot of folks were expecting 20%, only 13% is good news. So were the additional jobs. So are some of the indicators that folks are moving around and not staying home now. It's not the finish line, it's just the green flag after the red flag is over.
 
The P/E of Large US stocks has been at cartoonishly high levels for some time...I was advised to buy some on the dip in March once the S&P 500 got near the more reasonable 2100-2200 level and so I did. And now in only 3 months after the Boo-Bear and its back above 3200 my spidey sense is all pretty much shouting to bail out on the way up...
 
I converted some traditional IRA money to Roth IRA and caught it near the bottom. It means I'll pay some taxes on that money this year, but I'll never have to pay taxes on what it makes ever again. And if I outlive it, my son can inherit it without all the Required Minimum Distribution hassles.
 
MostWanted said:
I converted some traditional IRA money to Roth IRA and caught it near the bottom. It means I'll pay some taxes on that money this year, but I'll never have to pay taxes on what it makes ever again. And if I outlive it, my son can inherit it without all the Required Minimum Distribution hassles.
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This is why I anticipate a federal VUT-style consumption tax being added to the equation within 10 years. It is even possible they will use the COVID payments as justification, in which case it will be within 5 years.
 
Ferrisfan said:
This is why I anticipate a federal VUT-style consumption tax being added to the equation within 10 years. It is even possible they will use the COVID payments as justification, in which case it will be within 5 years.
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When they want more money to waste, they go after it. I recall the IRA deductions cancelled in the mid 1980's, a bonehead move and they realized it and reinstated them. I agree, all the money in ROTH and 401k plans, they will try to take 1 to 2%, like Chief Eating Crow said, 'it's just two cents'.
 
Of course anything is possible- things like lowering the RMD age, increasing rates of RMD withdrawal, caps, minimums, essentially just about any aspect of any tax law can be modified, added or removed. All it takes is the right ( or wrong) majority in Washington that sees people that have accumulated any amount of wealth as "evil" and their desire to redistribute that wealth to solve the Inequality problem.

Bread and Circuses
 
No one who knows anything believes these are "markets." You know, where there are buyers and sellers in a giant auction. This is the fed, printing up money to buy up assets. Nothing more. This will never stop btw. The stock market will go up and up and up. It will. HOWEVER, it will always be priced in dollars.

You either get that problem, or you don't. If you have confidence in the US dollar, then celebrate! Hooray. I hope you are successful. If you are, I too will be prosperous until I die. Not rich. Just ok.

HOWEVER, you should remember that for several years, the Venezuelan and Zimbabwe stock markets led the world in gains. The Weimar stock markets had eye popping gains in the 20s and 30s as well.

If you are wrong about the dollar (and I think you are), then you are not only going to do badly, you are going to lose everything. Now, if you have some rural property and an ability to live a self sustaining life while the cities burn (you ain't seen nothing yet), you may do ok. The person who has alternative currency, food creation ability, rural location, that person is, I believe, going to do well when this whole festering mess goes south.

This is not a "rally." This is artificial money printed up so that the Fed can buy up assets and keep the market from tanking, and the wealthy elite who are smart enough to follow them (it don't take a lot of bright to see what is happening). There is an old saying "don't fight the fed." I agree with it. OTOH, the fed is actively and willingly destroying the dollar. I am agreeing with them.

BTW, a 10 dollar roll of quarters on Ebay is 160 dollars more or less. This is about 20% over spot. Don't tell me you don't have any money. Tell me you think I am full of it, a howling jeremiad who has been wrong for.... let's see... 15 years now. Maybe I am a lunatic and could be wealthier on a magnitude of multiple times my net worth if I had given up on this "they are going to kill the dollar" stuff. Probably. I have traded professionally for a living and have a decent track record (I once turned 10,000 dollars into $150,000 trading currency futures, and have had many 5 and 10 baggers). Instead, I have shoveled every dime into gold and silver, and stashed them both here in the USA and overseas.

Weird thing is, I really do hope I am wrong. I will do ok if things rock along, though I will not be "wealthy." I am waiting for the day when an ounce of gold buys the entire DOW 30 (this is a pre-Keynesian norm), and then, if that happens, plan to buy some commercial real estate, when I can steal it.

I feel like Deets in that great scene from Lonesome Dove, where he announced that Jake Spoon was riding with murderers and outlaws. Gus said, "I sure hope you are wrong about Jake." Deets said "I hope I am wrong too.... but I ain't." I hope I am wrong about the dollar.

Best of luck to all.
 
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Belt and suspenders...a number of folks here also hold metals, but I recall Executive Order 6102 (1933) kinda put the kibosh on some folks plans. Could it happen again ? All you need is the right political climate and a docile populace. Never say never. And the dollar ? Its just an abstraction at this point.

Is it safe ? Is it safe ? ( Marathon Man)

Nothing is 100% safe....nothing.
 
Alfred said:
All you need is the right political climate and a docile populace.
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Docile populace? That ain’t me. People who know what I really think look at me aghast and ask, “how can you think like that?”.
 
Alfred said:
Belt and suspenders...a number of folks here also hold metals, but I recall Executive Order 6102 (1933) kinda put the kibosh on some folks plans. Could it happen again ? All you need is the right political climate and a docile populace.
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Everyone who gives a Croatian belch about an executive order or congressional legislation or IRS directive or... anything else to "turn in your gold" please raise your hand now and you will get a pretty new t-shirt that says "My lobotomy was a complete success."
 
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The so called ‘Left’ is also reluctant to point at Wall Street and its current theft, as such criticism, however legitimate, would immediately be censured as ‘antisemitic’ by the Jewish institutions that have appointed themselves to police Western public discourse.
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which makes this statement so completely ironic...

History teaches us that Fascism always wins when the conditions for a Marxist revolution are perfect. When you push for a race conflict and further fragmentation of the American society, bear in mind that you may end up facing a real Trump character (as opposed to Donald) that may be able to unite America and make it great for real, but you won’t find your place in it.
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Jewish bankers creating the second Hitler. That would certainly be a negative finale to the 4th turning crisis (and if we don’t want that, the “right’ better get off their backsides and start acting). Nazi Germany made the world tremble. A Naxi version of the United States would make it whimper.
 
Goofyfoot2001 said:
Scary sht
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Oh, I guarantee you there will be a price to be paid for “printing” several trillion dollars and handing it to the hedge funds to not only cover their losses on junk grade bonds but make them a profit.

The only reason it hasn’t become like Weimar Germany yet, you know with the stories of wheelbarrows of cash to buy a load of bread, is because of two things. One, the “money” isn’t really printed it’s just numbers added to a computer account. Two, it’s not really in circulation and has little to no velocity, yet, but will ultimately lead to inflation. Massive inflation.

If those funds had been injected at the bottom and gone upwards, it would have. Putting it at the top will just slow the effect to a trickle down.
 
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