Wuhan, nCV, germs....

drypowder said:
China has acknowledged shortage of test kits, so they are essentially saying there are many more actual cases than confirmed cases.
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I hear what you are saying, but I also read (no citation so take it for what it's worth) that most of the test kits are going to Hubei and that the shortage of kits is primarily in other areas where the existing medical infrastructure is not yet overwhelmed. Thus, it is possible that they are somewhat close to having this contained in Wuhan.

Or, everyone is going to die. It's probably 50/50 at this point. :cool:
 
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Growth rate of confirmed cases is clearly slowing, subject to caveat related to shortages of test kits/lab time. Appears the quarantine measures are paying off.
 
drypowder said:
Appears the quarantine measures are paying off.
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How long will they keep them up? Yesterday they were already screaming about the economic impact and blaming the US for canceling flights to / from there. Of course, it could be their standard tactic of sabre rattling to get the attention directed elsewhere.
 
Vyntage said:
As dots on the interval point map pop up around India, I can't help but play the theme to Jaws in my head.
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https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1224717061571530758

Uz2ocw1.gif
 
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noway2 said:
How long will they keep them up? Yesterday they were already screaming about the economic impact and blaming the US for canceling flights to / from there. Of course, it could be their standard tactic of sabre rattling to get the attention directed elsewhere.
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The plan as of now is that large parts of China will return to work next week.
 
In this day I think quarantine slows things down while we develop a vaccine. The drug companies have certainly done an analysis of the revenues from vaccinating the US vs treating the US. They need to get the vaccine out at premium pricing in the next few weeks before the news dies out.
 
Vyntage said:
https://twitter.com/timesofindia/status/1224717061571530758

MHALe7A.jpg
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I'm taking the under on this. Seems to me that the virus more easily infects East Asians than other groups. And among the infected, East Asians experience the worst complications.

All the infected who aren't East Asian I've read about (which are surprisingly few) had only relatively mild symptoms.

Prove me wrong. With all the Chinese in Africa, if the virus were equal opportunity, we should see Africans getting infected and coming down with pneumonia.

I'm starting to think this will be the equivalent of the seasonal flu for most of the world outside East Asia.
 
There's a video on today's Liveleak showing a Chinese guy drinking bat blood.....from the bat.
 
Brian K said:
There's a video on today's Liveleak showing a Chinese guy drinking bat blood.....from the bat.
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I thought that's what Ozzy Osbourne used to do as a stage stunt, or something like that. At least that's what they used to say back when I was in middle school.
 
drypowder said:
Growth rate of confirmed cases is clearly slowing, subject to caveat related to shortages of test kits/lab time. Appears the quarantine measures are paying off.
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I hope that's true.
Not so much because I care about people living/dying. I just want to be able to say I called the growth curve's inflection point when it happened. :-D
 
Scrubber3 said:
It could just be that they've run low on testing equipment...
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Could be, but I think it's much more likely that quarantine measures are working. This virus transmits similar to influenza. When there is limited contact with others and everyone is wearing a mask over their nose and mouth, there just aren't many transmission opportunities.
 
HOLY COW!!!!

Look at the E-mini s/p 500 (a round the clock electronically traded futures contract of the US stock market) reacting to a RUMOR of a Chinese discovered cure for WUVI.

Screenshot at 2020-02-05 06-47-54.png

One thing I have discovered over the years is that FINANCIAL MARKETS GET THE REAL NEWS BEFORE ANYONE ELSE.... USUALLY
 
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tanstaafl72555 said:
HOLY COW!!!!

Look at the E-mini s/p 500 (a round the clock electronically traded futures contract of the US stock market) reacting to a RUMOR of a Chinese discovered cure for WUVI.

View attachment 187667

One thing I have discovered over the years is that FINANCIAL MARKETS GET THE REAL NEWS BEFORE ANYONE ELSE.... USUALLY
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That AND they're in an area of the world that is up and running while we're asleep. Futures are a great trend to see how the day is going to turn out, and yesterday's Nasdaq was a banner day. Hoping today's gains will repair all of last week's losses.

Could you imagine buying the dip last week? You'd have made a lot of money with those two substantial day losses.
 
Grim said:
That AND they're in an area of the world that is up and running while we're asleep. Futures are a great trend to see how the day is going to turn out, and yesterday's Nasdaq was a banner day. Hoping today's gains will repair all of last week's losses.

Could you imagine buying the dip last week? You'd have made a lot of money with those two substantial day losses.
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I actually considered buying some put spreads on Wednesday. Lotsa trains coming every day, though, and you can ride any of them. I dont roll the dice as aggressively as I used to.
 
tanstaafl72555 said:
I actually considered buying some put spreads on Wednesday. Lotsa trains coming every day, though, and you can ride any of them. I dont roll the dice as aggressively as I used to.
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My investments are currently highly aggressive, but I still have 28 years of work ahead of me, so I can afford to be a little more aggressive now.

A week ago, I still wouldn't have made that buy without the certainty of a cure. The market is such an easily swayed beast; you never know what it'll do or what will set it off.
 
I have seen all the fearmongering info, and I remain unconvinced that this will become a global pandemic. This is primarily an East Asian disease. And China will be able to snuff it out by extensive use of face masks.

And spring weather is a further backstop. And that buys the pharma industry months to develop a vaccine in time for next winter.
 
drypowder said:
Why would Tencent even have the actual figures? And even if they did, why would they give those to the grunt who updates the public facing counter?

Overall I like ZH, but they sell fear, like all news media, so you have to take their fearmongering with a 50lb bag of salt.
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Those numbers are more in line with the Chinese response. But who knows. I figure the data will be clearer in a few weeks.
 
drypowder said:
I have seen all the fearmongering info, and I remain unconvinced that this will become a global pandemic. This is primarily an East Asian disease. And China will be able to snuff it out by extensive use of face masks.

And spring weather is a further backstop. And that buys the pharma industry months to develop a vaccine in time for next winter.
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FearMongers vs CCP. Probably somewhere in between.
 
Vyntage said:
Have you ever noticed that people who vehemently give advice almost never follow it themselves? Odd, that.

Anyway, so they've built and opened one temporary hospital, and a second is almost done, and now they are converting three public buildings (a stadium, an exhibition center, and a civic center) to serve as temporary hospitals (but for patients with "less-severe" symptoms).

The constructed temporary hospitals have ~2600 beds combined and the converted civic buildings will have another ~3400 combined. If my math is correct ... let's see, carry the eleven, round up the decimal ... that is ONE MILLION BEDS.

Sd3jD6e.jpg


There are ~12,7000 active confirmed cases in and around Wuhan (as of this morning) and they will soon have ~6000 temporary beds to add to the existing ~5300 beds in permanent hospitals. Or, almost enough beds for every active confirmed case.

Genius planning? Genius manipulation of reported cases? Blind, dumb luck? Your guess is as good as mine.
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Well, with an increase of ~4000 cases overnight in Hubei, that post did not age well. :oops: I read this morning they will be converting another eight (!!!) facilities in Wuhan to use as temporary hospitals, however.

I think a few people here have already pointed out there have been almost no deaths reported outside of Hubei, and if not I will. As of right now, ~97% of reported deaths have been in Hubei whereas ~48% of the reported recoveries have been outside Hubei. If you believe that to be true (a big if, I know), then an easy conclusion to draw would be that, with proper care, the virus is very survivable, and the only reason there are so many deaths in Hubei is that the medical system there was overrun before they knew what hit them.

Or, we're all going to die. Whichever. :cool:
 
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Vyntage said:
with proper care, the virus is very survivable, and the only reason there are so many deaths in Hubei is that the medical system there was overrun before they knew what hit them.
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Exactly. As I speculated a few days ago, Wuhan doesn't have enough oxygen and ventilators (nCoV seems to primarily attack the lower respiratory tract) for the number of patients, but other areas, with fewer patients, do.

So it's survivable by East Asians with proper medical care. Survivable by everyone else pretty much like a cold or influenza, though we still don't know how elderly non-East Asians will fare - will it be similar to the flu for them.

CCP might come out of this relatively unscathed, after throwing local Hubei officials under the bus. Western media might hail the ability for a commie government to quickly take very large scale measures in an emergency.

And without clear documentation of numbers of deaths ascribed to causes other than nCoV, and those who die at home, the actual death toll might be relegated to conspiracy theory talk.
 
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quote:
On Jan. 29, Zeng Guang, the chief scientist of epidemiology at China’s CDC, made a rare candid admission about why Chinese officials cannot tell people the truth,
in an interview with the state-run tabloid Global Times. “They [the officials] need to think about the political angle and social stability [in order to keep their positions],” Zeng said.
 
With the amount of heavy smokers, it is not particular surprising that the Chinese population is hit hard with respiratory infections.
 
df0101 said:
With the amount of heavy smokers, it is not particular surprising that the Chinese population is hit hard with respiratory infections.
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Never mind the abysmal air quality in many areas of China.
 
I'm about ready to stick a fork in the coronavirus outbreak and call it done. Non-East Asians appear much less susceptible to the virus (both infection and severity of illness, even though MSM seems to be ignoring this, perhaps because it would highlight that group differences are not just social constructs) than East Asians, AND we aren't seeing much in the way of self-sustaining outbreaks in mainland ex-Hubei (which, as a % of all mainland infections is at 30%, the lowest level since I started looking at this 2 weeks ago). So this nCoV outbreak is appropriately called the 'Wuhan flu'.

Needless to say, you will see plenty of doom porn continue to be generated because this outbreak has been very profitable for them, so they will milk it until it's obvious to even those with a 50 IQ that the outbreak is contained. Please don't buy their BS - look at the data for yourself.
 
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