Wuhan, nCV, germs....

gc70 said:
Oops - how did that ventilator get turned off?
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Another theory on why East Asians seem to be getting infected more readily and experience worse symptoms is they have more ACE-2 receptors in their lung tissue because of smoking, which is very prevalent in China. And most of the their smokers are men, which would also explain why men seem more likely to be infected. Perhaps the smog also plays a role in ACE-2 expression.

Maybe the pattern of infection and serious complications from that cruise ship will be enlightening since Japan will be way more forthcoming with info than the Chicoms.
 
drypowder said:
Another theory on why East Asians seem to be getting infected more readily and experience worse symptoms is they have more ACE-2 receptors in their lung tissue because of smoking, which is very prevalent in China. And most of the their smokers are men, which would also explain why men seem more likely to be infected. Perhaps the smog also plays a role in ACE-2 expression.

Maybe the pattern of infection and serious complications from that cruise ship will be enlightening since Japan will be way more forthcoming with info than the Chicoms.
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They smoke and drink like a freight train using Baijiu for steam... it's amazing to watch them go....
 
2/7/20
mainland China +3122, +11%
Smallest daily increase in confirmed cases since Feb 3. Hubei had smallest daily increase since Feb 4. Several days ago, I had pointed out how Zhejiang (province with greatest # of confirmed cases ex-Hubei) had 1/10 of Hubei's confirmed case count. Now the two provinces ex-Hubei with the highest confirmed cases (Zhejiang and Guangdong) COMBINED are only at 9% of Hubei's cases. So the explosion of cases outside of Hubei that many predicted isn't materializing. I'm interpreting this as the quarantine measures and face masks working - since these were put in place before the virus had a chance to deeply entrench itself outside Hubei. Hubei is a different story in that the virus was well entrenched before CCP took action and put everyone on high alert.

The most fascinating aspect at this time, IMHO, are the quarantined cruise ships, because they should provide data outside of CCP control on how the virus spreads, who it infects (these huge cruise ships will have people of various ethnicities, with a relatively high average age, so presumably an ideal target population for the virus and the more severe complications), health histories of those infected, how severe the infections are, etc. 3 ships so far - docked at Japan (61 confirmed infected so far), Hong Kong (8 confirmed infected so far) and Taiwan (0 confirmed infected so far).
 
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Watching videos of the Chinese fumigating entire streets with some unknown chemicals makes me think the CCP knows more about possible fomite transmission than they are letting on.

If the virus readily spreads via fomite transmission, this could be a real problem, but the cruise ships might shed some color on that.
 
Despite the obvious decelerating growth of confirmed cases (actual infected is an unknown number), I see the fearmongers, who early on cited the 50% daily growth rate in confirmed cases, have now stopped citing daily growth rate, and are instead presenting only this scary looking chart. For those with little math inclination, it sure looks like the infection is getting out of control. But this presentation of the data is deceptive. The infection was spreading very quickly early on (left side of the chart - that's the scary part, but the chart scaling hides it), but is now spreading more slowly.

oDOX1rb.png


Let's take an example. Say you have 100 confirmed cases on day t1. If on day t2, you have 50 additional cases, that is a 50% growth rate - this is terrifying if the virus can maintain this infection rate. Say on day t10, you have 1000 cases, then on t11, you have an additional 100 cases. That's 2x the increase we saw between days t1 and t2, and that's what arithmetic scaling, as in the above chart, makes clear. But the growth has slowed dramatically - those 100 additional cases represent a growth of only 10%. That means the infection is spreading more slowly. To see the growth rate more clearly, you want to use a logarithmic chart, as below - same exact data, just a change of scaling of Y-axis.

zymzFKp.png


What the log scale chart shows clearly is that the growth rate of the infection is slowing (again, based on confirmed cases, subject to the caveats that have been discussed in this thread). The fearmongers who only show you the chart with arithmetic scaling are either ignorant or are trying to deceive you - fear sells and the first chart is way more scary than the second, and the way to make sure you keep coming back to view their latest content is to keep you in a state of fear, whether it's justified or not.
 
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Now that recoveries are starting to mount, I thought I'd take a look at how new recoveries compare to new confirmed cases. So for example, on Jan 26, we had a daily increase in recovered of 11, while we had a daily increase of confirmed cases of 665. 11/665 = 2%. Or in other words, for every patient that recovers, we have an additional 50 new confirmed cases. The chart below shows how that ratio has been changing over time.

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As we can see, we're almost at 20%, or in other words, for every patient that recovers, we have an additional 5 new confirmed cases. Not great, but clearly MUCH better than early on, and I expect this will continue to improve, barring some mutation that increases the virus' R0.

You won't see this kind of analysis from fear peddlers like Chris Martenson of Peak Prosperity because if he showed you this, you may switch your attention to something else. If he can keep you in a heightened state of fear, you may be willing to pay for this premium service, where he will undoubtedly sell you more fear.

He will say his naysayers are pro-globalist and pro-MSM, but if you're familiar with my posts, you know this description fits me about as well as size 0 yoga pants fit Rosie O'Donnell.
 
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drypowder said:
Despite the obvious decelerating growth of confirmed cases (actual infected is an unknown number), I see the fearmongers, who early on cited the 50% daily growth rate in confirmed cases, have now stopped citing daily growth rate, and are instead presenting only this scary looking chart. For those with little math inclination, it sure looks like the infection is getting out of control. But this presentation of the data is deceptive. The infection was spreading very quickly early on (left side of the chart - that's the scary part, but the chart scaling hides it), but is now spreading more slowly.

oDOX1rb.png


Let's take an example. Say you have 100 confirmed cases on day t1. If on day t2, you have 50 additional cases, that is a 50% growth rate - this is terrifying if the virus can maintain this infection rate. Say on day t10, you have 1000 cases, then on t11, you have an additional 100 cases. That's 2x the increase we saw between days t1 and t2, and that's what arithmetic scaling, as in the above chart, makes clear. But the growth has slowed dramatically - those 100 additional cases represent a growth of only 10%. That means the infection is spreading more slowly. To see the growth rate more clearly, you want to use a logarithmic chart, as below - same exact data, just a change of scaling of Y-axis.

zymzFKp.png


What the log scale chart shows clearly is that the growth rate of the infection is slowing (again, based on confirmed cases, subject to the caveats that have been discussed in this thread). The fearmongers who only show you the chart with arithmetic scaling are either ignorant or are trying to deceive you - fear sells and the first chart is way more scary than the second, and the way to make sure you keep coming back to view their latest content is to keep you in a state of fear, whether it's justified or not.
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The other way to describe the difference would be in time to reach everyone. The linear graph looks like 7000/day. So it will take over a million days to spread to everyone (if the population was constant - its actually going up around 200k per day, so 7000/day is only a fraction of pop growth). Not very scary. 50% growth per day takes less than 60 days to spread to everyone in the world. Terrifying.
 
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So I'm sure those following this thread have seen the convention centers, gymnasiums, etc., being converted into "quarantine centers" - essentially hundreds of beds across an open floor. Sounds like CCP might go door to door in Wuhan (and possibly other cities in Hubei), checking for fevers. If you have a fever, they take you to a quarantine center. Not clear if this is true or misinfo/fear propaganda. But if true, I wonder if they are going to check people for influenza (it is flu season, after all) before dragging them off to one of these quarantine centers. Clearly they aren't going to test for nCoV since they don't have enough test kits to test everyone who presents at a hospital. But if they just drag people to a quarantine center (which is anything but an isolation center), that's a great way to spread nCoV to someone who may only have had influenza.

All in all, another reason I think CCP will get this virus contained - they seem to be willing to kill off tens if not hundreds of thousands of their people to do so. Given that their policies have killed tens of millions in the past, we know no sacrifice of Chinese blood is too much to preserve the CCP and advance its interests.

If this door to door search for the sick actually takes place, it will be interesting to see how the Chinese subjects react. Getting dragged off to one of these quarantine centers seems like a one-way ticket. And will likely involve separating parents from their children.

On a related note, I've been keeping my mother informed about what the CCP is doing, and she asked "Why don't they revolt?" - after I explained the strict gun control situation there, I think a light bulb turned on in her head.
 
drypowder said:
On a related note, I've been keeping my mother informed about what the CCP is doing, and she asked "Why don't they revolt?" - after I explained the strict gun control situation there, I think a light bulb turned on in her head.
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Gonna come abduct me in a knockof tyvek suite? How does your suit hold up to human feces in a home depot bucket full of old razor blades?
 
drypowder said:
If this door to door search for the sick actually takes place, it will be interesting to see how the Chinese subjects react. Getting dragged off to one of these quarantine centers seems like a one-way ticket. And will likely involve separating parents from their children.

I think about that video where the guy says, "We're not stupid, We haven't been brainwashed, We know what's going on. We're just powerless."
A Yellow Spring revolt maybe? Pressure is building for one.

On a related note, I've been keeping my mother informed about what the CCP is doing, and she asked "Why don't they revolt?" - after I explained the strict gun control situation there, I think a light bulb turned on in her head.

Would this be considered "enlightenment"?
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I heard a few days ago about expected iphone shortages (doesnt bother me), but i have to wonder what else is being produced in this area
 
HMP said:
I heard a few days ago about expected iphone shortages (doesnt bother me), but i have to wonder what else is being produced in this area
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Start looking at everything you buy and see what is NOT made in China. Our political leadership ceded manufacturing to China decades ago.

The good news is the vast majority of food and beverages are American.
 
JimB said:
Look for it to show up first as a reduction in happy meal toys.
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back when SARS hit, that's the kind of stuff we got from them. Much different today. Finished tech products, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals (nearly all our antibiotics are made there), everything in Harbor Freight, etc. Easier to list products that don't have any part of their supply chain in China.
 
drypowder said:
back when SARS hit, that's the kind of stuff we got from them. Much different today. Finished tech products, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals (nearly all our antibiotics are made there), everything in Harbor Freight, etc. Easier to list products that don't have any part of their supply chain in China.
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I was kidding.
 
concepthomes1 said:
I'm missing my daily updates on whether this virus is growing, leveling off, or declining.
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upload_2020-2-12_10-53-24.png
Total cases.
So either they're getting it contained and infection is dropping off, or they've totally exhausted global testing capacity and no more cases are being reported. Maybe a combination.
Now we just have to see if it stays contained or if other countries start experiencing issues. India has had 3 confirmed and thousands under quarantine. But hey, they've had some dude big nationalist announce that the cure for the virus is to eat/drink cow poop/pee - so they've got that taken care of.
England has had a couple people in their health system treating people while sick with it, so they may experience a boom.
 
It's not leveling off; every day there are more cases. But I do not know if it's exponential growth or linear growth.
 
Chuckman said:
It's not leveling off; every day there are more cases. But I do not know if it's exponential growth or linear growth.
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The top shows actual (what you would call linear) and the bottom shows logarithmic (what you would call exponential).

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I can't get the source linked in article to open so take with a grain of salt:

14,840 new cases and 241 new deaths reported today:

EDIT: oops same link as above
 
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KitShickers said:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/c...nfections-deaths-oil-stocks-tumble-gold-soars
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The large jump is because they are now classifying cases with a positive CT scan in Hubei as a confirmed case despite no positive test for the virus. So all those previous positive CT scan cases are included in the report for Thursday. And the figure is much lower than the numbers people have been throwing around for ill yet uncounted in Hubei.

This is actually a good thing - it means quicker diagnosis - those who get really ill can show signs of pneumonia on CT scan even before there is enough viral load in a throat swab to get a positive hit. Unlike influenza, COVID-19 has a preference for the lower respiratory tract, which is why the infected don't usually present with pronounced upper respiratory symptoms. And the quicker diagnosis means earlier treatment and earlier quarantine and thus reduced spread.

I expect the fearmongers will make hay out of the jump, while not explaining to their audiences the real import of this increase.
 
The numbers jumped because Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, began counting "clinically diagnosed" cases as well as cases confirmed by laboratory testing.

China's Hubei reports jump in new cases of COVID-19 after diagnosis criteria revision
from Xinhua, the official state-run press agency of the People's Republic of China
China's Hubei Province, center of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, reported 14,840 new confirmed cases and 242 new deaths on Wednesday, the highest daily increases so far, local health authorities said on Thursday.
The Hubei Provincial Health Commission said the number of new cases included 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases, which have been seen as confirmed cases from Thursday.
It brought the total confirmed cases in the hard-hit province to 48,206. The province had a total of 1,310 deaths as of Wednesday.
Clinically diagnosed cases are unique to Hubei statistically. The inclusion of those cases drives the surge in the number of new confirmed cases.
Any suspected cases with pneumonia-related computerized tomography (CT) scan results are counted as clinically diagnosed cases, according to the latest version of the diagnosis and treatment scheme released by the National Health Commission.
The provincial health commission said the diagnosis criteria revision has been made to give those who have been clinically diagnosed the timely standard treatment of confirmed cases to further improve the treatment success rate.
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drypowder said:
214 infected thus far on the plague ship.
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Why?

The incidence of transmission on the cruise ship seems fairly radically different from the transmission patterns outside Wuhan.

I have begun to wonder whether the virus was originally more contagious and has mutated to be less contagious over time.
 
gc70 said:
Why?

The incidence of transmission on the cruise ship seems fairly radically different from the transmission patterns outside Wuhan.

I have begun to wonder whether the virus was originally more contagious and has mutated to be less contagious over time.
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That’s 214 confirmed out of just over 700 tested. Could be a lot more infected.
 
Short of someone being there and being virologist with expertise dealing with this exact type of virus, im taking anything anyone says with a grain of salt.

Is it highly contagious? Yes (FACT)
Is it contained? No (FACT)
Potentially lethal? Yes (FACT)
Is the information coming from China viable? No (FACT)

Is there reason to be worried based upon the above information? You be the judge. I have some schooling and experience in the medical playground. Im worried, but not saying the sky is falling.


Stick you head in the sand or become prepared (whatever "prepared" means to you).
 
gc70 said:
Why?

The incidence of transmission on the cruise ship seems fairly radically different from the transmission patterns outside Wuhan.

I have begun to wonder whether the virus was originally more contagious and has mutated to be less contagious over time.
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Or people started taking steps to prevent the spread... [emoji106]
 
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