Wow. I loaded up short and did a HUGE gain in 2022, only to see the slobbering fools rush in screaming "BUY BUY BUY!!! we MIGHT see a pivot on interest rates!!!!" then "we MIGHT have seen the last of the 1/2 per cent rises" and then a frenzied squealing panic to buy every time the fed says ANYTHING other than "we are going to cause astonishing pain and raise rates to the point where the economy shuts down." In fact even when there is an announcement that we are going to have severe pain... if the slightest hint is given that the rate rises MIGHT be having an effecct.... the market completely ignores the bad stuff, focuses on what it WANTS to hear, and the market goes blasting into the ionosphere. In fact, the DOW if functionally where it was when I initially plunged short back in April. It is utter imbecility and a bunch of market makers sitting on about a thousand S&P points (maybe 5,000 to 6,000 Dow points) of nothing but pure air and hopium.
I am no longer in serious positional trades. I sit and wait for the market to enter into the normal spasms like last week when one of the (non voting) fed members said he thought we would not go 1/2 a percent rise next month, and damn if that wasn't enough to send the market into a paroxysm of panic buying that pushed the market up 600 or so points. You just try to scalp that and catch part of the ride and then GET OUT, so you can wait for today and have Powell say what he has said all along, and forecast hi rates for a long time, and the market sinks what is right now 534 points. Just hyperstupid volatility based on hyperstupid hope that we can avoid wha is staring us in the face (yes, I am short today).
Are we headed for at least 3200 on the S&P and probably lower, maybe MUCH lower? Crap yes. A blind man can see it while wearing dark glasses in a blackout room. But the fed is acting as a "plunge protection" team and the big banks are performing as instructed and radical shorts are getting burned. The market is acting irrational, but back even BEFORE the US Treasury got involved as a market manipulator, it was true that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
I have given up on the idea of plunging short and cleaning up when the bottom falls out. I don't think they will let the bottom fall out (although there may be days of nail biting horror... for which I am staying mildly short). That is fine. I don't have to plunge. I can scalp.
It is a crooked game, gentlemen.
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