Collapse of law enf in US skewing crime reporting and data

73Chall

73Chall

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If there is one pro-2A entity that should be on the “must” donate list, the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC) is it.

Dedicated to conducting academic quality research on the relationship between laws regulating the ownership or use of guns, crime, and public safety: https://crimeresearch.org/​


The esteemed Dr. John Lott recently wrote a WSJ op-ed on the collapse of law enforcement in the US and how that is impacting crime data;

“… while the FBI's measure of reported crime is falling, the National Crime Victimization Survey shows that total violent and property crimes are soaring. The piece explains that reported crime is falling because law enforcement collapsed in the US.”

The Media Say Crime Is Going Down. Don’t Believe It:​

The decline in reported crimes is a function of less reporting, not less crime.​

crimeresearch.org

At the Wall Street Journal: The Media Say Crime Is Going Down. Don’t Believe It: The decline in reported crimes is a function of less reporting, not less crime.

Dr. John Lott has a new op-ed at the Wall Street Journal. News outlets claim that Americans mistakenly believe violent crime is rising. A Gallup survey last year found that 92% of Republi…
crimeresearch.org crimeresearch.org
 
Dr. Lott is usually right. His primary thesis for decades has been “More guns less crime” ie if more citizens are armed violent crimes fall dramatically but there is often an uptick in non violent property crimes.

However, cops don’t wanna cop anymore- not risking my pension or freedom to save some junkie and end up on youtube. Many cities have retardedly enacted policies where cops do not respond to certain calls anymore and a cottage industry of savvy crooks opened up shop doing exactly that.

This is 100% OUR FAULT. We, the huddled unwashed masses, allowed this weakness to foster and exist.

Somewhere, in the seventh layer of hell,
Karl marx
(NEVER capitalize that word.
[See what I did there?] )
looked upon the death and destruction his mind virus had wrought upon the earth and smiled.
 
Well clearly the solution to this is to do what we're already doing but twice as hard and with four times the budget.

Or, you know, decorate some lampposts with criminals until they take the hint.
 
NCLivingBrit said:
Or, you know, decorate some lampposts with criminals until they take the hint.
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People, effectively, dealt with criminals before police were a thing and long before we had the system we have today. I don’t know who thought outsourcing safety and security to the govt. in exchange for protecting criminals rights was a good thing. The results speak for themselves. Many like to say govt. isn’t the answer, for just about everything but then turn to govt. when it comes to one of the most important functions in their lives. :rolleyes:
 
noway2 said:
People, effectively, dealt with criminals before police were a thing and long before we had the system we have today. I don’t know who thought outsourcing safety and security to the govt. in exchange for protecting criminals rights was a good thing. The results speak for themselves. Many like to say govt. isn’t the answer, for just about everything but then turn to govt. when it comes to one of the most important functions in their lives. :rolleyes:
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People always trot out the potential for injustice.... What do you call having 5% of your population in prison at some point in their lives? It's a business, pure and simple and we are the crop.
 
Interesting, but the ideas in the article are mostly opinion, not many facts. Trying to prove that less people are reporting crime nowadays is a tough sell. In my experience, it's possibly the opposite. It used to be that if you caught a beating for something, you sucked it up and moved on. Many people handled their own sh-t. The new generations report when people give them a dirty look or when someone points a finger at them in anger.

Next, police departments are FOREVER under-reporting crime. NYC stats are something I know and are easy to look up. In NYC, for decades Chiefs have been publicly ostracized and fired for doing this. How can anyone say that under-reporting is worse now than then - kinda' impossible to prove a negative. Again, with so many people watching out for this, it may have been much worse when people weren't aware this was a thing.

But I certainly agree that the general public "feels" that there's more crime - because whether it's true or not, that's what we're being fed by the media. I have friends that still work in NYC since the late '80 - '90's - they say it's worse now than even then. Statistically, it's not even close to as bad now as then, even if the stats are skewed some. In 1990 NYC had ~2400 murders. In 2023 NYC had 391 murders. But "feel" is important - and sells papers, gets clicks, and air time.
 
The UK, which is often the model gun grabbers use to claim that disarming the people reduces "gun crime", is also the model for deliberately under reporting crime.
In the UK, violent crime against women is substantially higher t than in the US. Even worse in those areas of the UK with high illegal alien populations and ROP population.
 
Dan0311 said:
Interesting, but the ideas in the article are mostly opinion, not many facts. Trying to prove that less people are reporting crime nowadays is a tough sell. In my experience, it's possibly the opposite. It used to be that if you caught a beating for something, you sucked it up and moved on. Many people handled their own sh-t. The new generations report when people give them a dirty look or when someone points a finger at them in anger.

Next, police departments are FOREVER under-reporting crime. NYC stats are something I know and are easy to look up. In NYC, for decades Chiefs have been publicly ostracized and fired for doing this. How can anyone say that under-reporting is worse now than then - kinda' impossible to prove a negative. Again, with so many people watching out for this, it may have been much worse when people weren't aware this was a thing.

But I certainly agree that the general public "feels" that there's more crime - because whether it's true or not, that's what we're being fed by the media. I have friends that still work in NYC since the late '80 - '90's - they say it's worse now than even then. Statistically, it's not even close to as bad now as then, even if the stats are skewed some. In 1990 NYC had ~2400 murders. In 2023 NYC had 391 murders. But "feel" is important - and sells papers, gets clicks, and air time.
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The main statement of his argument seems to dismiss most of what you are saying. The FBI stats are underreported, or estimated instead of using real numbers. And that is skewing the numbers down and making them inaccurate. That's not opinion. If you report less crime, crime would seem to go down. And if you don't respond too, or prosecute other crimes, it goes down even more. At least, on paper.


"In 2022, 31% of police departments nationwide, including Los Angeles and New York, didn’t report crime data to the FBI. In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported."
 
NCLivingBrit said:
Plus the FBI is the Sturmabteilung for the Left, not a law enforcement agency these days. They're going to report whatever makes their leash holder look good.
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Been that way in one form or another from the start. A dog usually obeys those that hold the leash and feed it.
 
chiefjason said:
Been that way in one form or another from the start. A dog usually obeys those that hold the leash and feed it.
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True, the BI was as corrupt as they come and adding the F didn't do much to change that.

I love you guys, but sometimes the realizations and epiphanies I get being here l make me damn sad.
 
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NCLivingBrit said:
True, the BI was as corrupt as they come and adding the F didn't do much to change that.

I love you guys, but sometimes the realizations and epiphanies I get being here l make me damn sad.
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Being born and raise here and figuring this stuff out as I get older sucks too.
 
chiefjason said:
The main statement of his argument seems to dismiss most of what you are saying. The FBI stats are underreported, or estimated instead of using real numbers. And that is skewing the numbers down and making them inaccurate. That's not opinion. If you report less crime, crime would seem to go down. And if you don't respond too, or prosecute other crimes, it goes down even more. At least, on paper.


"In 2022, 31% of police departments nationwide, including Los Angeles and New York, didn’t report crime data to the FBI. In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported."
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I understand what he's saying. Most of what he's putting out is conjecture. He states lots of opinions, but there's often no corroboration of what he's saying. There can't be any. He sites surveys of how people think, or feel, about crime. I addressed that in my previous post. While 'feelings' on crime rates are very important, especially during election season, the hard facts often don't marry-up with feelings. He writes, "In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported", but he fails to explain what he means by that or what proof he has of it.
"If victims don’t believe criminals will be caught and punished, they won’t bother reporting them." Again, how does he know this wasn't worse 10 or 15 years ago?

Again, I could go line-by-line in the article and present an completely different view, and both would only be conjecture.

I believe this is one of the worst WSJ articles I have ever read, and if it had to be printed, should probably be in an editorial page in an unknown paper. To me, the article reads similar to a slanted, anti-gun article, rife with opinion, with on non-relevant stats.

Most people I know from NY think that the crime rate in NYC is through-the-roof. In reality, it's probably 6X lower right now than it was in the 90's. Perception is most people's reality. My elderly mother now watches 24-hour news. She feels these are the worst times in her life. Yet, she remembers German soldiers marching through her town when she was a kid, and knows that at that time 50 - 60 million people were killed during a war that only lasted 6 years. Perception.

Take these NYC crime stats for what they are. Again, ~1991 there were 2,400 murders.

1714842089060.png
 
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fishgutzy said:
The UK, which is often the model gun grabbers use to claim that disarming the people reduces "gun crime", is also the model for deliberately under reporting crime.
In the UK, violent crime against women is substantially higher t than in the US. Even worse in those areas of the UK with high illegal alien populations and ROP population.
Click to expand...
You also have to remeber the difference in how UK collects data vs the US. In the UK, it's convictions that get counted not reports like in the US.
 
I'll speak from a different perspective (and none of this is disagreeing with the OP etc)
Yes, dont enforce rules and it looks like crime is down.

But the downside, and Im speaking to my organization, is that when you dont enforce the basics, all the 'crime' goes up

Again, speaking to my career, we're seeing a DRASTIC spike in some things that we NEVER saw before. Fights, for example - in my first eight years we had a TOTAL of, about, seven fights. That's what I know of, at least, and I hear a lot of things.
This YEAR we've had at least 12. WOW. Usually we dont have ONE and now we have a dozen? But if you look at other things, the basics like wearing a hat (they claim it's for safety), they dont enforce something simple. Any dress code stuff or 'minor' things arent addressed so it leads people to be more daring, I think.

Hell, what the heck do I know.
 
Dan0311 said:
I understand what he's saying. Most of what he's putting out is conjecture. He states lots of opinions, but there's often no corroboration of what he's saying. There can't be any. He sites surveys of how people think, or feel, about crime. I addressed that in my previous post. While 'feelings' on crime rates are very important, especially during election season, the hard facts often don't marry-up with feelings. He writes, "In addition, in cities from Baltimore to Nashville, the FBI is undercounting crimes those jurisdictions reported", but he fails to explain what he means by that or what proof he has of it.
"If victims don’t believe criminals will be caught and punished, they won’t bother reporting them." Again, how does he know this wasn't worse 10 or 15 years ago?

Again, I could go line-by-line in the article and present an completely different view, and both would only be conjecture.

I believe this is one of the worst WSJ articles I have ever read, and if it had to be printed, should probably be in an editorial page in an unknown paper. To me, the article reads similar to a slanted, anti-gun article, rife with opinion, with on non-relevant stats.

Most people I know from NY think that the crime rate in NYC is through-the-roof. In reality, it's probably 6X lower right now than it was in the 90's. Perception is most people's reality. My elderly mother now watches 24-hour news. She feels these are the worst times in her life. Yet, she remembers German soldiers marching through her town when she was a kid, and knows that at that time 50 - 60 million people were killed during a war that only lasted 6 years. Perception.

Take these NYC crime stats for what they are. Again, ~1991 there were 2,400 murders.

View attachment 775712
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Because the hyper link on the phrase "undercounting" takes you to the article he is referencing. Same as the next hyperlink to the article he is referencing.

"And the figures the agencies do report to the FBI do not match the agencies’ publicly reported figures. For Baltimore, the FBI reported 225 murders in 2023, but the city reported 262 — which means the FBI left out 37 murders. In Milwaukee, the police department reported a 7% increase in robberies, but the FBI showed a 13% drop. Nashville’s own data tallied more than 6,900 aggravated assaults in 2023, but the FBI counted only 5,941, leaving almost 1,000 of those offenses “missing.” This trend is consistent across the board: While 2022’s FBI city-level figures track the police’s own data, the 2023 numbers consistently undercount offense totals. Any year-to-year comparison overstates decline. "
 
chiefjason said:
Because the hyper link on the phrase "undercounting" takes you to the article he is referencing. Same as the next hyperlink to the article he is referencing.

"And the figures the agencies do report to the FBI do not match the agencies’ publicly reported figures. For Baltimore, the FBI reported 225 murders in 2023, but the city reported 262 — which means the FBI left out 37 murders. In Milwaukee, the police department reported a 7% increase in robberies, but the FBI showed a 13% drop. Nashville’s own data tallied more than 6,900 aggravated assaults in 2023, but the FBI counted only 5,941, leaving almost 1,000 of those offenses “missing.” This trend is consistent across the board: While 2022’s FBI city-level figures track the police’s own data, the 2023 numbers consistently undercount offense totals. Any year-to-year comparison overstates decline. "
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Yep, I see that now, thanks for pointing that out. I thought it was a real WSJ article, but now realize it's the internet WSJ and it IS an Op-Ed (with hyperlinks).

Besides the apparent undercounting that the Washington Examiner reported, I'm not too sure where he's going with most of the rest.

Here's another comparison - please forgive me as all I have is from NYC, where I used to work. This one only goes to 2019, but from what I've seen, only a light increases and decreases over the past few years.

2262 murders down to 391 last year.......it's Disney compared to the early 90's.


1714863948171.png
 
News coverage every minute of every day and they love showing bad things.

It is getting harder to make ends meet so as people get desperate crime will increase.

Seems to be a general decrease in the value of life in general.

Our govt wants it all to fold so hold on it is about to get bumpy.
 
HMP said:
But if you look at other things, the basics like wearing a hat (they claim it's for safety), they dont enforce something simple. Any dress code stuff or 'minor' things arent addressed so it leads people to be more daring, I think.
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That’s the theory behind “broken windows” policing, but that’s racist, and I guess so are the statistics regarding who is committing the crimes.
 
Dan0311 said:
Yep, I see that now, thanks for pointing that out. I thought it was a real WSJ article, but now realize it's the internet WSJ and it IS an Op-Ed (with hyperlinks).

Besides the apparent undercounting that the Washington Examiner reported, I'm not too sure where he's going with most of the rest.

Here's another comparison - please forgive me as all I have is from NYC, where I used to work. This one only goes to 2019, but from what I've seen, only a light increases and decreases over the past few years.

2262 murders down to 391 last year.......it's Disney compared to the early 90's.


View attachment 775902
Click to expand...


Got bad news for you. Let's be honest, murder is the worse but the rest of the list is where most of the public impact on opinion is. And they are WAY up last year as you go down the list. The list from top to bottom is the same types, just copied the numbers off the table. Matter of fact, rape is the only one that is down.


1714877735505.png

Citywide numbers are at the bottom.


Not sure if you have an agenda in mind or what. But using the less recent numbers and leaving out the current ones might help your case. But the reality seems to be quite different. Not sure why you can't access these numbers? Took me about 3 minutes to find them.
 
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chiefjason said:
Got bad news for you. Let's be honest, murder is the worse but the rest of the list is where most of the public impact on opinion is. And they are WAY up last year as you go down the list. The list from top to bottom is the same types, just copied the numbers of the table. Matter of fact, rape is the only one that is down.


View attachment 776163
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It's not news to me, lol - I posted it. Everything was down last year except assaults and stolen cars. But they're WAY, WAY down from the early 90's. Even with the 'Covid bump', crime is near it's lowest in many decades. But watching the news, you'd think it's the worst ever. Just like my elderly mother "feels".

1714878012890.png
 
chiefjason said:
View attachment 776163


Not sure if you have an agenda in mind or what. But using the less recent numbers and leaving out the current ones might help your case. But the reality seems to be quite different. Not sure why you can't access these numbers? Took me about 3 minutes to find them.
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You kinda' lost me. You linked to something that I already posted. Not sure what you mean about 'agenda', just calling it as I see it - I don't have a dog in the race.

Crime is WAY down in some (most?) places over the last few decades. I'm pretty sure that's verifiable. Crime in NYC was near/at an all-time low before covid, and it was rated in many areas as one of the safest large cities in the country. I dislike NYC very much, I don't care how high or low the crime is there. I'm just pointing out that I think the media is controlling how many "feel" about crime rates. They put a murder on the NY news every so often and everyone there thinks, "Oh my, another murder, there was just one the other day." But in reality, in the early 90's, the City averaged 6 murders A DAY. That never made the news - but now, the one-murder-a-day average in 2023 is a very common topic in the local news. Again, perception.
 
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Dan0311 said:
You kinda' lost me. You linked to something that I already posted. Not sure what you mean about 'agenda', just calling it as I see it - I don't have a dog in the race.

Crime is WAY down in some (most?) places over the last few decades. I'm pretty sure that's verifiable. Crime in NYC was near/at an all-time low before covid, and it was rated in many areas as one of the safest large cities in the country. I dislike NYC very much, I don't care how high or low the crime is there. I'm just pointing out that I think the media is controlling how many "feel" about crime rates. They put a murder on the NY news every so often and everyone there thinks, "Oh my, another murder, there was just one the other day." But in reality, in the early 90's, the City averaged 6 murders A DAY. That never made the news - but now, the one-murder-a-day average in 2023 is a very common topic in the local news. Again, perception.
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You quoted the 2019 numbers last. And the current numbers look to be trending upwards from that. Do they need to go back up to crack cocaine numbers to get peoples attention? Is that the baseline where things are bad? Or should folks perk up and try to figure out what's causing this rise in crime numbers now? I get that as the worst case scenario. But not sure anyone want's to relive that today. Just because something isn't as bad as it was at its worst does not mean it does not need to be addressed in a better manner than they seem to be currently addressing it. If I lived in an area where the trend line was headed up on crime over the last few years, not one year over the other, it would get my attention.

You seem to be a bit hyper focused on murder. That is not the main issue that people experience. It's really an oddity. The bottom of that list is up over the last 5 years. Saying that's OK because it used to be worse seems a bit odd. Like I said, the only thing really down over 5 years ago is rape. The rest are trending up from 5 years ago.
 
Another angle to consider every time we are told "murder" is down that is not addressed is the medical intervention and EMS system that is getting better as time goes on. This was pointed out by David Grossman in a seminar I attended about 15 years ago and I felt like it made great sense. Attacks that would have led to a death (murder) a few years back are now categorized as "Aggravated Assaults". I have seen articles on the "numbers" that even highlighted this ("While the murder rate is down, aggravated assaults have risen...").
 
Dan0311 said:
Interesting, but the ideas in the article are mostly opinion, not many facts. Trying to prove that less people are reporting crime nowadays is a tough sell. In my experience, it's possibly the opposite. It used to be that if you caught a beating for something, you sucked it up and moved on. Many people handled their own sh-t. The new generations report when people give them a dirty look or when someone points a finger at them in anger.

Next, police departments are FOREVER under-reporting crime. NYC stats are something I know and are easy to look up. In NYC, for decades Chiefs have been publicly ostracized and fired for doing this. How can anyone say that under-reporting is worse now than then - kinda' impossible to prove a negative. Again, with so many people watching out for this, it may have been much worse when people weren't aware this was a thing.

But I certainly agree that the general public "feels" that there's more crime - because whether it's true or not, that's what we're being fed by the media. I have friends that still work in NYC since the late '80 - '90's - they say it's worse now than even then. Statistically, it's not even close to as bad now as then, even if the stats are skewed some. In 1990 NYC had ~2400 murders. In 2023 NYC had 391 murders. But "feel" is important - and sells papers, gets clicks, and air time.
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Murder rate is a terrible metric because it impacts so few. Car break ins, muggings, random theft, rape, assault, those thing are far reaching and relatable. Those, I am sure, are far worse.
 
Goofyfoot2001 said:
Murder rate is a terrible metric because it impacts so few. Car break ins, muggings, random theft, rape, assault, those thing are far reaching and relatable. Those, I am sure, are far worse.
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I disagree. The murder rate is generally indicative of the rates of other index crimes in cities. Of course, there will be exceptions from year to year.
 
Dan0311 said:
Everything was down last year except assaults and stolen cars. But they're WAY, WAY down from the early 90's.
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I am a middle aged adult. Statistical changes from when I was in high school, and likely unaware as well, aren’t going to have any meaning on my perception of crime today, and hence policies I support or not.
 
chiefjason said:
You quoted the 2019 numbers last. And the current numbers look to be trending upwards from that. Do they need to go back up to crack cocaine numbers to get peoples attention? Is that the baseline where things are bad? Or should folks perk up and try to figure out what's causing this rise in crime numbers now? I get that as the worst case scenario. But not sure anyone want's to relive that today. Just because something isn't as bad as it was at its worst does not mean it does not need to be addressed in a better manner than they seem to be currently addressing it. If I lived in an area where the trend line was headed up on crime over the last few years, not one year over the other, it would get my attention.

You seem to be a bit hyper focused on murder. That is not the main issue that people experience. It's really an oddity. The bottom of that list is up over the last 5 years. Saying that's OK because it used to be worse seems a bit odd. Like I said, the only thing really down over 5 years ago is rape. The rest are trending up from 5 years ago.
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OK Sir, I'm truly not tracking what you're posting, you seem to have gone on a tangent I'm not willing to follow.

You also re-posted what I had previously posted and said it took you 3 min to find it......

The bottom line is that I don't agree with the internet Op-Ed article that someone else posted. I think the crime rates are not as bad as the media portrays. I used examples from NYC from the 90's and up to 2023. I understand that you disagree and I'm surly not trying to change your mind.
 
noway2 said:
I am a middle aged adult. Statistical changes from when I was in high school, and likely unaware as well, aren’t going to have any meaning on my perception of crime today, and hence policies I support or not.
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Yessir, that was a large part of my point.
 
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