EMP detonations

[Radar]

ok so we have set up the THAAD missle defense in South Korea and the Russians and Chinese are "concerned" about it being there. Theoretically if the N. Koreans could launch a nuke icbm that actually made it to where we had to fire back if we destroyed it could it have EMP effects? I don't know that it would get to high enough altitude to affect many masses but a logical concern nonetheless.

 

[SCshooter]

Pretty sure the nuke would have to actually detonate to have an emp effect; that a THAAD destruction of the incoming missile would not cause a nuclear detonation.

 

[GymB]

They don't have a nuke big enough to create a harmful EMP, they don't have a delivery system, and anti-missile systems do not detonate the nuclear warhead.

I don't understand your hypothetical. It reads that they launch (at this point we don't know what would be in this hypothetical warhead), we destroy their missile, and then if we counter-attack with nuclear would our attack create an EMP. If that's not what you're saying can you clarify?

 

[NCFubar]

While I am not versed in the shielding properties of today's defenses most military systems have built in shielding for electro magnetic fields. To what extent the THAAD is shielded is likely above most all people's pay grade and to get a large enough charge thru it would likely mean the other affects of a nuclear detonation would be more damaging.

 

[Les White]

That brings up an interesting point. IF NK sent one up designed to produce a high yield EMP, it would take out a huge portion of the region, SK and China...and NK as well.

Who of them has the most experience living without power?

Hmmm.

 

[GymB]

That brings up an interesting point. IF NK sent one up designed to produce a high yield EMP, it would take out a huge portion of the region, SK and China...and NK as well.

Who of them has the most experience living without power?

Hmmm.

Interesting idea, but as a practical matter they have enough trouble making small ones go boom and making their rockets not go boom that this can't be a problem for a looooong time. The risk from NK is proliferation, not attack.

 

[Radar]

They don't have a nuke big enough to create a harmful EMP, they don't have a delivery system, and anti-missile systems do not detonate the nuclear warhead.

I don't understand your hypothetical. It reads that they launch (at this point we don't know what would be in this hypothetical warhead), we destroy their missile, and then if we counter-attack with nuclear would our attack create an EMP. If that's not what you're saying can you clarify?

Basically It was answered earlier, and in my assumption that if THAAD took down a NK Nuke the warhead would detonate, which may not be the actual case. My thought was if the NK had a large nuclear warhead we do not know about and used it and THAAD destroyed the missle would the warhead possibly cause an EMP type event.

 

[Oldreb43]

Actually "small" nuclear weapons even in the double digit kiloton range are large enough to have an emp effect. It depends on location and burst altitude as to how much of an effect it will have. As to whether they have a larger weapon, I certainly don't trust the information that we have been given by any of our media networks to be able to ascertain what indeed they do have. A reliable source did say over the weekend that they have a weapon and delivery system capable of reaching Hawaii. Doesn't affect us in the Carolinas much but that is a US state.
As to whether a anti missile - missile could detonate the warhead it depends on where it is hit and any failsafe or lack thereof system is on board.

 

[JimP42]

I very much doubt that something as complex and delicate as a warhead would work properly if the missile were destroyed. They work by ultra precise timing of pressure waves that create and then compress the critical mass long enough for the reaction to happen. Anything that disrupts the timing or pressure conditions would mess it up.

Just a bit of a radioactive mess to clean up. Japan has some experts at that now...

 

[GymB]

Agree that traditional yield is not the critical indicator of the amount of EMP produced, it seems to be much more dependent upon the effectiveness of the device to produce high energy gamma radiation in the extreme upper atmosphere.

Of course there is little information about the effects of a nuclear-generated EMP, so you've gotta wonder if he'd set design parameters for a device to try to destroy the power grid in the US based on Internet theories, or if he'd go for the well-understood result of a ground-level explosion. Even in the wildest possible scenario the US would be more than capable of a retaliatory attack. Perhaps as important, given China's economic dependence on US trade I'd expect them to deal with NK long before NK represented a credible existential threat to the US.

Of course this is all just my opinion.

 

[georgel]

This reminds me of the scene in True Lies where Schwarzenegger sends those Harriers to take out the van with the nuclear warhead. When the pilot asks if there is a chance of detonation, Schwarzenegger replies Negative, then looks over at Tom Arnold and shrugs his shoulders.
I believe a nuclear warhead has to be in an "armed" condition before it can detonate. As mentioned, it's a complicated process. There have been instances of "accidents" with nuclear warheads that did not detonate. I believe there is one buried in the mud here in NC after being "dropped" from an aircraft. They're more worried about the case deteriorating and releasing radioactive isotopes.

Alternative scenarios for a state side EMP detonation include a near coastal launch from a "cloaked" vessel, such as a fake cargo ship.

 

[The Green Heron]

It doesn't take a big one, it simply takes one "tuned" for maximum gamma output, delivered to a suitable altitude for maximum interaction with.....the ionosphere?....I think that's the layer.

Could NK pull it off? I'd be more worried about the dog doing the least barking.....Iran. Those Persians are smart enough to pull it off, and their scientists aren't half starved.

 

[GymB]

Those Persians are smart enough to pull it off, and their scientists aren't half starved.

And don't forget money, they have crazy access to cash relative to NK.

But do you really think a state would do this? Sure they hate us, but is a state suicidal? I worry more about the religious zealots who would likely never be able to develop a nuclear weapon, but who will eventually obtain one or more.

And while we talk about highly improbable nuclear scenarios, does anyone wonder how they are doing with development of biological weapons?

 

[The Green Heron]

how they are doing with development of biological weapons?

With all the guinea pigs they have lining up every year begging for a flu shot. I'd say their research has peaked by now and they should have Captain Trips perfected.

 

[RedneckFur]

This may be straight from tin foil helmet territory, but I've heard snippets here and there that the NK's have a satellite in a polar orbit that crosses over the US on a very regular basis, and that there's some concern that this satellite may be an EMP device that they can set off remotely.

I haven't the slightest idea if any of this is true. Just some rambling I overheard the other day.

 

[GymB]

This may be straight from tin foil helmet territory, but I've heard snippets here and there that the NK's have a satellite in a polar orbit that crosses over the US on a very regular basis, and that there's some concern that this satellite may be an EMP device that they can set off remotely.

I haven't the slightest idea if any of this is true. Just some rambling I overheard the other day.

I believe that both KMS-3 and KMS-4 are still in orbit. That neither has any practical use fuels a lot of speculation. Someone should use them for target practice, might as well be us since we'll be blamed anyway.

 

[GymB]

Just went and looked, KMS-3 (technically KMs 3-2) continues to tumble. That they haven't been able to stabilize it seems to indicate that they either don't have control or don't have power. If it's a nuke it's small (6'x3'x2') and likely not under their control.

KMS-4 was tumbling but has stabilized. It has however failed to achieve sun-synchronous orbit, meaning it was designed to stay in the sun all the time, but it has ended up at a lower orbit than planned, it's at about 300mi, so passes through the Earth's shadow. Orbit seems to be decaying, but I didn't see a forecast of when it will burn up. Didn't see any information about the size or weight.

That they got these things into orbit at all is a huge accomplishment, but I can't imagine that they put a nuke in space, and I really don't believe that they could have done so without bragging about it. Think about this, most of their launches fail, and there is zero probability that they could hide the loss or destruction of a nuclear warhead, so why would they expose themselves in these early stages of developing rocket technology? This is all just "peaceful" testing of technology that gets them to an ICBM, they'll be worrying about nuclear warheads in the future.

 

[The Green Heron]

You need to understand the breakdown of Asian culture, and their caste system.

Lemme make it simple.
China:


North Korea:



Japan, just for scale:

 

[JohnFreeman]

Of course there is little information about the effects of a nuclear-generated EMP,

I used to work at the Air Force Weapons Laboratory, and even 30 yrs ago they were doing extensive testing and simulations on EMP effects. There's quite a bit of knowledge from measurements of nuclear testing, simulation on computers, and... testing at TRESTLE.
..which was a wooden pier , fabricated with hardwood everything...including hardwood nuts and bolts... that was big enough to push a B52 out on . This simulated (kinda) "free space" and elaborate cages of wiring was placed around this giant structure such that mag fields were induced to simulate the EMP effects on B52s.

There's a great website about it with more pix at:

http://ece-research.unm.edu/summa/notes/trestle.html



All that underground testing in Nevada (and my department was involved in some of them) were not just to experiment with the yield...but more importantly to measure the effects.

It was interesting work . I was the Co-Op student computer jockey with a Secret + CNDWI (Classified Nuclear Weapons Development Information) clearance at the time writing simulation code in (gasp) FORTRAN!

 

[JohnFreeman]

But do you really think a state would do this? Sure they hate us, but is a state suicidal?

The ongoing behavior of the NorKs will answer this shortly..

 

[GymB]

I used to work at the Air Force Weapons Laboratory, and even 30 yrs ago they were doing extensive testing and simulations on EMP effects. There's quite a bit of knowledge from measurements of nuclear testing, simulation on computers, and... testing at TRESTLE.

All interesting stuff, and I think we know more about the effects than most and thanks for your contribution to that, but my point was that the North Koreans don't have access to this information, so they'd take a bird in the hand (i.e. Destroy a major port city with tech that they have and a high probability of success) vs two in the bush (dozens of failure points, so odds of success are near zero and they don't even really know if it would work.)

BTW, I used to code in fortran, on punch cards...hated rain, snow and tornadoes.

Oh, and I'm wracking my brain for the name of a guy you may have known. I worked with his wife in Las Vegas, he flew out to work every day. Details never discussed, but he worked in weapons testing. It would have been the late '80's and early '90's. Can picture them, her name was Linda, last name McLeod, can't remember his first name or rank, pretty certain he was air force. It's been a long time.

 

[The Green Heron]

Koreans don't have access to this information, so they'd take a bird in the hand (i.e. Destroy a major port city with tech that they have and a high probability of success) vs two in the bush (dozens of failure points, so odds of success are near zero and they don't even really know if it would work.)

So....you don't think the leaders in NK have access to Amazon Kindle? Cause....pretty much anyone on the planet has access to the knowledge of EMP and it's effects. There are pretty detailed parameters laid out in numerous post apocalyptic novels.

It may actually be easier to hit a large line of sight area in the atmosphere, than even a large city. Common sense would certainly indicate several hundred thousand square miles of atmosphere, is a larger target than a city.

 

[GymB]

There are pretty detailed parameters laid out in numerous post apocalyptic novels.

Detailed and accurate are not the same thing.

It may actually be easier to hit a large line of sight area in the atmosphere, than even a large city. Common sense would certainly indicate several hundred thousand square miles of atmosphere, is a larger target than a city.

True, but you can drive to one and you've got to fly to the other. They have experience driving, but very little experience flying. To relate this to you personally, the moon is a much larger target than a beer can at 100 yards. You could punch holes in the can all day long, but what are the odds you could hit the moon from your backyard with any rifle you own?

 

[JohnFreeman]

I suspect the Norks view EMP as a side effect of making a big boom, rather than something to strategically exploit. I agree that it's not something they would focus on out of the chute. Making a radioactive crater is a better photo op than generating mag fields anyway.

EMP is a relatively localized effect otherwise nothing electrical in southern NM or much of Nevada would work. The effect should dissipate with the cube of the distance (since it spreads in a volume). Lightning strikes are pretty good EMP generators too but if you're two blocks away there's not a lot to worry about other than needing new shorts. It's not insignificant but unless you or the grid that feeds you is close, it's not the end of the world. If you are, well....bye.

I know air burst should increase the EMP effect... but I doubt the Norks are that sophisticated. Yet. An accurate ballistic missile is a pretty awesome thing. You're throwing a rock and expecting it to coast to a stop accurately to the other side of the planet.

 

[The Green Heron]

EMP is a relatively localized effect otherwise nothing electrical in southern NM or much of Nevada would work. The effect should dissipate with the cube of the distance

Did they ever test a nuke in Nevada, 20 miles up?

 

[JimP42]

I suspect the Norks view EMP as a side effect of making a big boom, rather than something to strategically exploit. I agree that it's not something they would focus on out of the chute. Making a radioactive crater is a better photo op than generating mag fields anyway.

EMP is a relatively localized effect otherwise nothing electrical in southern NM or much of Nevada would work. The effect should dissipate with the cube of the distance (since it spreads in a volume). Lightning strikes are pretty good EMP generators too but if you're two blocks away there's not a lot to worry about other than needing new shorts. It's not insignificant but unless you or the grid that feeds you is close, it's not the end of the world. If you are, well....bye.

I know air burst should increase the EMP effect... but I doubt the Norks are that sophisticated. Yet. An accurate ballistic missile is a pretty awesome thing. You're throwing a rock and expecting it to coast to a stop accurately to the other side of the planet.

Methinks you should do a little research on EMP. "Anywhere between Richmond and Boston" is a much bigger target than Manhattan or D.C. Technically I think it's a space burst, above 100 miles, not an air burst. Not sure whether they can enhance gamma or how much the yield matters, but just overloading the enormous antenna network that is the electric grid would do us in for years. Don't have to fry every piece of electronics to collapse our infrastructure.

 

[Goofyfoot2001]

EMP as a weapon is HUGELY over rated. If it was such a big deal, we would have an EMP weapon. We do not. Easier to blow stuff up. Explosions are so much cooler anyway.

 

[JimP42]

EMP as a weapon is HUGELY over rated. If it was such a big deal, we would have an EMP weapon. We do not. Easier to blow stuff up. Explosions are so much cooler anyway.

See https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Baker-Statement-5-13-EMP.pdf

There is a lot more, but that is a good understandable summary.

 

[JimP42]

EMP as a weapon is HUGELY over rated. If it was such a big deal, we would have an EMP weapon. We do not. Easier to blow stuff up. Explosions are so much cooler anyway.

And every nuke we have that can get 50 or so miles up is a potential EMP weapon. So we have thousands and I guarantee the military has the ability and plans to use them that way if the situation warrants that.

 

[georgel]

 

[GymB]

Given the bombastic, and incorrect, statements in the first 20 seconds I decided not to spend another 40 minutes on it.

 

[Prudii]

We had this discussion back on the NYG forum, long story short EMP is not the all powerful electronics destroyer that the media makes it out to be. There are several ways to harden and protect electronics from EMP and pretty much everything you can think of when it comes to electronics in the government and the military has been hardened against EMP for over 50 years now. Here is the link to the discussion.

 

[GymB]

We had this discussion back on the NYG forum, long story short EMP is not the all powerful electronics destroyer that the media makes it out to be. There are several ways to harden and protect electronics from EMP and pretty much everything you can think of when it comes to electronics in the government and the military has been hardened against EMP for over 50 years now. Here is the link to the discussion.

Welcome to the forum, bold third post, AND a link to a NY gun forum!

I agree that the risk is overblown, it's Y2k all over again.

 

[Prudii]

Welcome to the forum, bold third post, AND a link to a NY gun forum!

I agree that the risk is overblown, it's Y2k all over again.

Thanks, I didn't want to paraphrase or quote an expert without linking to the source.
And yea the risk is way overblown, there are dozens of more likely SHTF scenerios.

 

[RetiredUSNChief]

If we intercept a missile, there won't be a nuclear yield.

If there's no nuclear yield, then it's only a matter of spread of the fissile material to worry about.

An EMP effect can be generated from a low kiloton yield. Though the magnitude of the EMP effect does depend in large part to the yield, it also depends on reaching the optimal altitude for a given yield. That could be as low as 20 miles and as high as 250 miles. And yes, North Korea has the capability to reach these altitudes.

But the effects of the EMP will be pretty much limited to line of sight for ground effects.

Of greater concern would be the effects on orbiting satellites.

Accouding to a Scientific American article I read, a 10 kiloton detonation at the right altitude could cause the loss of 90% of all low earth orbit satellites within a month.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...dangerous-but-not-for-reasons-gingrich-cites/

 

[GymB]

Accouding to a Scientific American article I read, a 10 kiloton detonation at the right altitude could cause the loss of 90% of all low earth orbit satellites within a month.

What was concluded in that article from 2011 was to just repeat the conclusion from the 2004 article which was:

"He quotes K. Dennis Papadopoulos, a plasma physicist at the University of Maryland who studies the effects of high-altitude nuclear explosions for the U.S. government, who concludes that “a 10-kiloton nuclear device set off at the right height would lead to the loss of 90 percent of all low-earth-orbit satellites within a month.” The exception would be U.S. military satellites, many of which have been hardened against exactly this kind of threat."

So, GPS and military communications would be unaffected as would our spy satellites. A few decades ago a lot of telecom companies used satellite in their networks, but that's almost all gone to fiber now except for extremely rural areas like parts of AK and remote portions of the SW. The same is true for a great deal of video distribution, although I suppose we'd lose Direct Broadcast Satellite video (i.e. dish). Even things like most vehicle tracking have gone from satellite to cell networks. There is a bunch of telemetry data for remote oil wells sent over satellite, but that's hardly critical.

Which LEO satellites are you thinking are critical infrastructure?

 

[The Green Heron]

I'm glad we finally got another Yankee in here. Now hopefully we can clear all this EMP chatter up.

 

[Prudii]

I'm glad we finally got another Yankee in here. Now hopefully we can clear all this EMP chatter up.

To quote Snappo on the NYGF so people don't have to search for it or go to another site.
"EMP paranoia is just that. Zener diodes make transorbs and an EMP cannot hurt electronics that have a transorb array. We have been putting transorbs in all military use mother boards since the 50s. Every commercial Data Center incorporates Faraday Cages. In fact, your metal wall / metal roof barns are Faraday cages. If you want to protect electronics throw them in an old broken microwave oven. Just plug it in so it grounds. I worked as a military radar engineer for 12 years. We worked in EMI/RFI chambers for most of our testing. DCAS and NAVPRO would never sign off on military use electronics that cannot survive EMI/RFI testing, immersion testing, salt/fog testing, bang-bang (extreme hot and cold cycling), vibration testing on shakers the size of your living room, and ballistic shock testing. EMP hysterics are just that."

 

[Inglis]

A microwave oven is a Faraway cage.

If you are worried about a EMP just put all you stuff in a microwave.

Cut the cord off you you will have a EDP safe box.

 

[The Green Heron]

To quote Snappo on the NYGF so people don't have to search for it or go to another site.
"EMP paranoia is just that. Zener diodes make transorbs and an EMP cannot hurt electronics that have a transorb array. We have been putting transorbs in all military use mother boards since the 50s. Every commercial Data Center incorporates Faraday Cages. In fact, your metal wall / metal roof barns are Faraday cages. If you want to protect electronics throw them in an old broken microwave oven. Just plug it in so it grounds. I worked as a military radar engineer for 12 years. We worked in EMI/RFI chambers for most of our testing. DCAS and NAVPRO would never sign off on military use electronics that cannot survive EMI/RFI testing, immersion testing, salt/fog testing, bang-bang (extreme hot and cold cycling), vibration testing on shakers the size of your living room, and ballistic shock testing. EMP hysterics are just that."