MAJOR FLARE WARNING

REELDOC

REELDOC

The creek won't clear up til you get the pigs out.
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Pfffft... EVERYONE knows the sun has NOTHING to do with earth, man. It's MAN-made global climate warming change, dude!
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:rolleyes:
 
I clicked the link but didn't see the answer to this question: When is it supposed to hit earth?
 
Cape Fear said:
I clicked the link but didn't see the answer to this question: When is it supposed to hit earth?
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Haven't read any follow-up on this flare, but, in general, 1-4 days: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections

Much depends on the force of the flare (the kinetic energy imparted) as well as the direction. The direction is much more complex than might be thought at first: firstly, the producing flare lasts for some time - hours even. Then, of course, the sun is rotating. So think about holding a water hose nozzle whilst spinning about and variably squeezing the handle. So the CME has a kind of expanding, comma shaped volume.

How and when the earth passes through this region (i.e. is hit) is thus a complex solution set.
 
I have limited experience but do recall a flair in '95-'96 that caused microwave (not home microwave oven) interruption.

When cell service, ATMs and other microwave communication is disrupted those not familiar with the phenomena will panic.
 
There was one that hit Quebec in '99, IIRC, that fried many electrical transformers in town, and left most of the region in the dark for days.
 
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so we're getting a hurricane AND a CME in one weekend?
sounds thrilling. the possibilities are endless
 
thelongdark.fandom.com

Wintermute

Wintermute is the story mode edition of The Long Dark that launched August 1, 2017. Originally starting with 2 episodes, the story will contain 5 episodes that will conclude in 2024. The premise of Wintermute centers around the relationship between Dr. Astrid Greenwood and a bush pilot named...
thelongdark.fandom.com thelongdark.fandom.com
 
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Updated 3-day forecast: late tonight and into early 2SEP best chances for 5-6 level "low-moderate" storm. Probs in the 30% range.


NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Active 30/20/35
Minor storm 35/30/15
Moderate storm 15/30/05
Strong-Extreme storm 05/05/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 01 Sep - 03 Sep
Sep 01 Sep 02 Sep 03
00-03UT 4 6 3
03-06UT 4 5 2
06-09UT 3 4 2
09-12UT 3 3 3
12-15UT 2 3 3
15-18UT 2 3 3
18-21UT 4 4 3
21-00UT 5 4 3
 
Well, apparently it gave the Australians something to look at! 😮


An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and They’re Stunning​

Thomas Pesquet, a French astronaut for the ESA, is currently aboard the International Space Station. He recently shared some breathtaking images of Aurora Astralis (Southern Lights). Pesquet adds:

“Another round of auroras🧚🌏 (surely you’re not tired of them yet… are you?) I don’t know why we saw so many in the span of a few days, when I barely saw one during my entire first mission, but these last ones came with something extra. As the Moon was high and bright, it lit up the clouds from above, which created a distinct atmosphere… and almost turned the aurora blue. What’s next, Mother Nature? A yellow one? A giant rainbow?🌈 And no, photo techies, the camera balance was set the same as for previous aurora pictures 🤷‍♂️ An aurora under the full moon, what could be better?”
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So what could possibly be better than seeing auroras from space? Under a full moon apparently! Photos from Pesquet below, enjoy!


thomas pesquet aurora astralis southern lights esa iss 1 An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and Theyre Stunning

Photograph by Thomas Pesquet​

thomas pesquet aurora astralis southern lights esa iss 2 An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and Theyre Stunning

Photograph by Thomas Pesquet​

thomas pesquet aurora astralis southern lights esa iss 3 An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and Theyre Stunning

Photograph by Thomas Pesquet​

thomas pesquet aurora astralis southern lights esa iss 4 An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and Theyre Stunning

Photograph by Thomas Pesquet​

thomas pesquet aurora astralis southern lights esa iss 5 An Astronaut Captured the Southern Lights Under a Full Moon and Theyre Stunning

Photograph by Thomas Pesquet​
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Studentofthegun said:
If we have another Carrington Event we are pretty much toast.

Hope that doesn’t happen.
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I was wondering if anyone would cite this. Unbelievable effects, and it is inconceivable what kind of damage would have been done had we been a more "trasistorized" society.

My wife is really big on hand tools in the kitchen for prepping food. I am thinking a farraday protected generator and woodgas might keep us alive for a bit.

It is weird how my thinking has changed, though. After topics like this, my mind automatically flips to "but then again, maybe you won't be alive in a year, so there is not that much to plan for, anyway....." yet the wife and kids and grandkids and all. It is a deep rabbit hole, for sure.
 
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turkeydance said:
update.
quote:
"Here it comes.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) launched into space on Oct. 28th by exploding sunspot AR2887
is heading almost directly for Earth. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the CME racing away from the sun faster than 1457 km/s (3.3 million mph)"

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Maybe it’ll work like the comet in maximum overdrive and everything will go back to sanity once it passes.
 
Product: Geomagnetic Forecast
:Issued: 2021 Oct 29 2205 UTC
See below. The key numbers are the Kp index forecast with the values of '7' for 2100-0000 UTC for 30 OCT and 0000-0300 UTC for 31OCT. Kp = 7 is a "strong" geomagnetic storm with general effects as given here:

G 3StrongPower systems: Voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: Surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: Intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.).		Kp = 7


# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 28 Oct 003
Estimated Ap 29 Oct 004
Predicted Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 045-044-012

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Active 10/10/40
Minor storm 25/25/15
Moderate storm 30/30/01
Strong-Extreme storm 35/35/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 30 Oct - 01 Nov
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01
00-03UT 2 7 3
03-06UT 3 6 4
06-09UT 2 5 3
09-12UT 2 5 3
12-15UT 5 4 2
15-18UT 6 4 2
18-21UT 6 3 2
21-00UT 7 3 3
 
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hp468 said:
Maybe it’ll work like the comet in maximum overdrive and everything will go back to sanity once it passes.
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And you put your ATM card in the machine and it says, “You are an asshole” and the coke machine shoots out a can that hits you in the nuts.

Great movie.
 
bottom line:
earth got grazed.
just a flesh wound.
 
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