Already lining up at the door

[Etruett]

And some of these are the same people that were not prepared the last time.

I heard one guy earlier this week say “I didn’t think we would ever have another shortage. You would think the ammo companies would have learned the last time”. I didn’t even respond. I have to talk to too many idiots with work to waste any more of my precious breath and not get paid.

 

[myst173]

You know lake city sells it by the barrel right?

 

[Etruett]

Why do you hate gun ranges?


Seriously, though, as @wvsig mentioned upthread, we are in a bubble. Most folks go to the range the way most folks go bowling.

If bowling alleys only catered to leagues, and people who own their own shoes/balls, they'd soon be out of business.

Some bowlers have multiple balls.... some shooters have 10K of ammo. But most bowlers and shooters only buy as they go. Like me, with M&Ms for my belly. I don't stock up when prices are low.



OK, M&M's are a bad example... if I go to the movies, I do buy a pack before I get there.

Plus, as I try to explain to my wife.... every box of M&Ms comes with a free ammo can!
View attachment 238010

I think m&m’s is a great example. I probably eat more than any 2 pot heads combined. I will NEVER be out of my candy. I buy in bulk. Don’t wait for sales. When I go to the grocery store I buy several of the Party size no matter what I have at home. Same with primers. I try to use only Federal. For the last 2-3 years I have bought every box of Federal small pistol primers I see at shops and gun shows. Sometimes I get deals and sometimes I pay top money, but what’s $5 per k? Another 1/2 cent a round? Point is, I do plan ahead more than most and don’t let the lack of a sale keep me from being prepared. I’m not rich by any means but a lot of people are going to be out of ammo and reloading supplies because they couldn’t “find a deal “. I don’t mean you should throw money away when you don’t have to, but some of the prices we all thought were too high 6 months ago look pretty damn good now.

 

[JohnFreeman]

When I have moved the moving company will move the brass and the bullets but no powder, primers or loaded ammo. They won't move the gun either. At least not on the books.

When I moved from NM to NC in 96, firearms were moved but listed on the manifest as "long items".

 

[ProfMagoo(ret)]

I think my concern, and many share it, is that the election will not be pretty, either way. If the Dems lose, they will loot and burn out of anger. If the Dems win, they will loot and burn out of revenge.

The French called it le terreur. How quickly liberte', egalite', fraternite' turned on itself.

 

[Charlie]

Right but in order to make his point he divides 10,000 by 20 years. That is a strawman backing up the red herring. I do not necessarily disagree that there is a possibility of restrictions coming. I objection is the poor logic being used to support the argument being presented. It is circular logic. It is false on its face and only works if you already believe the conclusion is valid. I guess my way of thinking is to not use scare tactics to get people to see the reality of the situation. It is better to use logic and reason. If you rely on circular reasoning and poor syllogism then you will never convince someone who does not already believe your position that your fears are valid. I watch all sides of all debates do this constantly.

I prefer the lessons of history. They may not be logical or reasonable, but they are facts.

You evidently missed the point about 20 years.

If restrictions are possibly coming, how deep will those restrictions be? Can your logic and reason look into the crystal ball and come up with an answer that is guaranteed to be accurate? If you can not, then my arguments are not circular but rather very linear. They apply the lessons of history to the present situation to come up with a possible worst case scenario. If I knew for sure what the future holds, I would know exactly what preparations to make for it and would not have to prepare for the uncertain.

 

[BlackGun]

The same can be said of people who stock up, can it not? EDIT: @zuerjoha beat me to it!

Aside from recreation and resale, has there ever been a reason for a private US citizen to own 10,000+ rounds of loaded ammo?

I’m not saying I don’t. I’m also not saying anyone shouldn’t. But the reality is, no one has ever needed to.

I don’t need a reason but I get what you’re saying. 10,000 rounds is good start.

 

[B00ger]

Snip

If you want to think that, then cool. You are missing the point that he made two observations:
1. Ammo may/will become more difficult to come by.
2. Based on his own use, 10,000 rounds will not last him the rest of his life so being able to replenish his supply is important to him.

These are two separate points.

The base point is that if dems take control replenishing ammo supplies will continue to be difficult. This is based on legislation that has already passed on the state level. This is also based on a historic president that many of us have lived through. It is also based on promises spoken by the politicians specifically in question. This is not circular reasoning. It is coming to a conclusion based upon evidence.

 

[wvsig]

I prefer the lessons of history. They may not be logical or reasonable, but they are facts.

You evidently missed the point about 20 years.

If restrictions are possibly coming, how deep will those restrictions be? Can your logic and reason look into the crystal ball and come up with an answer that is guaranteed to be accurate? If you can not, then my arguments are not circular but rather very linear. They apply the lessons of history to the present situation to come up with a possible worst case scenario. If I knew for sure what the future holds, I would know exactly what preparations to make for it and would not have to prepare for the uncertain.

The past does not directly predict the future. Sorry but it doesn’t. What I love about this discussion is that I have 5 years of factory ammo on hand shooting at my regular pace. Add to that enough hazmat components to keep me shooting for another 7-8. That is just the major calibers I shoot.

It is not that I don’t believe in buying it on the regular and stacking it deep I just don’t buy into the paranoia and the illogical arguments for doing it. I do it because I can and I want to. I don’t need another reason.

When we do that we become part of the problem. As I stated early I the thread. When everyone cries chicken little newbies freak out, people who have reasonable amount freak out and buy everything in sight creating what we have now. People are illogically buying more than ever and shooting less .

​

Carry on and shoot well and stay safe.

 

[B00ger]

The past does not directly predict the future. Sorry but it doesn’t. What I love about this discussion is that I have 5 years of factory ammo on hand shooting at my regular pace. Add to that enough hazmat components to keep me shooting for another 7-8. That is just the major calibers I shoot.

It is not that I don’t believe in buying it on the regular and stacking it deep I just don’t buy into the paranoia and the illogical arguments for doing it.

When we do that we become part of the problem. As I stated early I the thread. When everyone cries chicken little newbies freak out, people who have reasonable amount freak out and buy everything in sight creating what we have now. People are illogically buying more than ever and shooting less .

​

Carry on and shoot well and stay safe.

I fail to see how "if the democrats come into power buying ammo may be more difficult" is paranoia or illogical.

 

[wvsig]

I fail to see how "if the democrats come into power buying ammo may be more difficult" is paranoia or illogical.

To me “may” is the operative word. We have no idea what is going to happen. We are all guessing and making a lot of assumptions.

PS I have bought 9,000 primers in the last 24Hrs. LMAO

 

[georgel]

So, some of us discuss how we don't need to stockpile, because if it becomes unobtainium, its only temporary and will become available again. Yet, the way only to bridge that gap is to stockpile for that undetermined amount of time.

Real or imagined causes, ammo is not available real time. And what if we go to into cival war? Do we just wait for it to become available again?

It's always interesting when we have a debate on how we should spend our own money.

 

[tanstaafl72555]

The past does not directly predict the future. Sorry but it doesn’t.

nothing DIRECTLY predicts the future. Nothing "directly" relates to an

So if I can summarize this thread?

My hording is ok; prudent; visionary even.
Anyone else's hording is bad, half-witted; neurotic.

Is that about it?

sorta... the underlying argument is that normalization bias is a law vs those who say no it is not, and when it deviates, the results are catastrophic.

I clearly fall into the later category, and am used to the normies mocking. 99.5% of the time, they are right...., maybe more.

If they can't smell this thing coming, though, there simply are no words that will convince them. I suppose the freaks like myself will just wish them well..., but it won't be.... unless the odds are 99.6% and we miss it this time, too. You only have to be wrong once, though, and I can afford to be wrong a hundred times.......

That is what it is about, or at least a prominent sub-current.

 

[wvsig]

nothing DIRECTLY predicts the future. Nothing "directly" relates to an


sorta... the underlying argument is that normalization bias is a law vs those who say no it is not, and when it deviates, the results are catastrophic.

I clearly fall into the later category, and am used to the normies mocking. 99.5% of the time, they are right...., maybe more.

If they can't smell this thing coming, though, there simply are no words that will convince them. I suppose the freaks like myself will just wish them well..., but it won't be.... unless the odds are 99.6% and we miss it this time, too. You only have to be wrong once, though, and I can afford to be wrong a hundred times.......

That is what it is about, or at least a prominent sub-current.

I guess what I see is that these runs on the bank that are driving up pricing are to a large extent self made. Some of them end up being justified others like the 22LR drought are not.

Yes we can be wrong over and over again but each time we do it costs the shooting community time money and resources.

It’s like a self imposed fear tax.

 

[Charlie]

The past does not directly predict the future.
I just don’t buy into the paranoia and the illogical arguments for doing it..

The past does, indeed, not directly predict the future but does teach us some very important lessons if we will just realize it. History can show us patterns of behavior that lead to fairly predictable outcomes. Looking at history and listening to the words of those who might gain control point the way to some rather troubling outcomes.

I am not into paranoia. I am into trying to read the mood of current events. Some, but certainly not all, of the old farts buying ammo have never before seen this level of armed civil disorder and violence and just want a little ammo to use to protect themselves.

 

[BatteryOaksBilly]

Agree but I don't see that lasting for 20 years either.

You talkin 'bout me again? I shore as Hell won't be here in 20 years!!!

 

[wvsig]

The past does, indeed, not directly predict the future but does teach us some very important lessons if we will just realize it. History can show us patterns of behavior that lead to fairly predictable outcomes. Looking at history and listening to the words of those who might gain control point the way to some rather troubling outcomes.

I am not into paranoia. I am into trying to read the mood of current events. Some, but certainly not all, of the old farts buying ammo have never before seen this level of armed civil disorder and violence and just want a little ammo to use to protect themselves.

That is not what I am seeing. It’s not people adding a little bit of ammo it’s people buying in mass. Powder Valley had people buying pallets before they set limits. RMR bullets is shipped orders of 50k from people who normally order 5k.

 

[Etruett]

I think we now know who's responsible for all this!

Yea, blame it on me. You will get classified as an ex wife. It's not like I have 50-60k in stock. I think I'm down to less than 10k total for large and small pistol.

 

[wvsig]

Great discussion. I am always interested in people’s motivations.

 

[tanstaafl72555]

I guess what I see is that these runs on the bank that are driving up pricing are to a large extent self made. Some of them end up being justified others like the 22LR drought are not.

Yes we can be wrong over and over again but each time we do it costs the shooting community time money and resources.

It’s like a self imposed fear tax.

all runs are self made and all of them are driven by fear. the only real question is whether the fear is justified.

 

[Charlie]

That is not what I am seeing. It’s not people adding a little bit of ammo it’s people buying in mass. Powder Valley and people buying pallets. RMR bullets is shipped orders of 50k from people who normally order 5k.

Buying that much is certainly not my idea of getting a box or two to shoot commies at the door.

 

[wvsig]

all runs are self made and all of them are driven by fear. the only real question is whether the fear is justified.

How many runs I your lifetime have been justified when it comes to firearms?

 

[rufrdr]

When I moved from NM to NC in 96, firearms were moved but listed on the manifest as "long items".

The movers actually moved my long arms (no handguns) in the safes on board the moving truck. We inventoried them together at the far end and the movers put seals over the doors that they signed. When the stuff arrived we inventoried them again. They didn't move the ammo, that came in a different manner.

 

[wvsig]

The movers actually moved my long arms (no handguns) in the safes on board the moving truck. We inventoried them together at the far end and the movers put seals over the doors that they signed. When the stuff arrived we inventoried them again. They didn't move the ammo, that came in a different manner.

Lots of companies won't move the guns. The last driver I had offered to move the safe with the gun in it but it would have been off book so I moved them myself.

 

[McDirkale]

And some of these are the same people that were not prepared the last time.

I prepared one handle pull at the time again today prior to coming to work....

 

[SCshooter]

Lots of companies won't move the guns. The last driver I had offered to move the safe with the gun in it but it would have been off book so I moved them myself.

My last (and I do mean LAST) move, the movers moved my empty safe. They didn't touch my guns or my ammo - my choice. Never a consideration otherwise.

 

[wvsig]

My last (and I do mean LAST) move, the movers moved my empty safe. They didn't touch my guns or my ammo - my choice. Never a consideration otherwise.

I have had a moving company move my stuff 4 times in the last 10 years. I moved the guns an ammo each time. No one would touch the ammo but the cool ones will move open liquor, lawn mover, household chemicals etc... A lot has to do with how far the run is. If its under 36 hours that its on the truck they don't care. If it is a longer haul or a depot is involved they are more strict.

 

[tanstaafl72555]

How many runs I your lifetime have been justified when it comes to firearms?

This goes back to the question whether regression bias is justified or not. I only have to be right once .
You can be right a thousand times and wrong on the 1,001 time and it is just like I was right all along.

We won't resolve this difference, because I know the same math you do. You are right the overwhelming majority of the time. Unfortunately, that is not the issue and pointing it out over and over does not strengthen the argument.

For a paranoid prepper, for example, when silver sells off, we are not saying "oh well, we were just wrong on things." Instead we say "GREAT, I sell on the downslope and buy more when the price is lower. I have increased my stock for no more money."

We do this because YOUR constant is USD and you (I am speaking generically, I have no idea of your personal evaluations) make your evaluations of value in terms of the dollars. I live in a world where the USD is AT BEST a tenuous value, and more realistically where it is shortly to lose most-if not all- of its value. THEREFORE, I don't care about the fluctuations of fear and whether the hoarding is "justified" nor what the short term rises and falls are in the price of gold, guns, seeds, and adl items. The reason is that we view them as the "real" units of value, and dollars as irrelevant. It is all in perspective, and the perspective is determined by whether a normalcy bias is justified. I say there is far too much evidence that we are on a cliff. Time will tell if you are right.

Good luck.

 

[DCGallim]

My office is right down the road from The Gun Store on Hwy 8 in Lexington, that place is packed everyday. One of my drivers goes by after he leaves the office to check for ammo every day. Some days he gets lucky but he's also paying over .50 per round for steel case .223.

 

[Tailhunter]

Where do people get the extra disposable income?

 

[Dale Gribble]

Where do people get the extra disposable income?

For many, I’d bet they’re using plastic cash.

 

[wvsig]

Where do people get the extra disposable income?

For many, I’d bet they’re using plastic cash.

I would bet that at the large quantities there is some speculation going on and if I was doing that I would be paying on a 0% credit card. Free loan to make money!

As to the disposable income some people have it others don't. Can't really say. The COVID 19 deal has shed a lot of light on the different levels of the economy, jobs and income. For the investor class life is already back to where it was pre COVID. For the working class they are still in the middle of the disruption. For many industries they still cannot work. People on the higher end of the income spectrum are chugging right along it seems.

 

[Jeppo]

Where do people get the extra disposable income?

Lots of $1,200 ammo buys I’m betting.

 

[wvsig]

This goes back to the question whether regression bias is justified or not. I only have to be right once .
You can be right a thousand times and wrong on the 1,001 time and it is just like I was right all along.

We won't resolve this difference, because I know the same math you do. You are right the overwhelming majority of the time. Unfortunately, that is not the issue and pointing it out over and over does not strengthen the argument.

For a paranoid prepper, for example, when silver sells off, we are not saying "oh well, we were just wrong on things." Instead we say "GREAT, I sell on the downslope and buy more when the price is lower. I have increased my stock for no more money."

We do this because YOUR constant is USD and you (I am speaking generically, I have no idea of your personal evaluations) make your evaluations of value in terms of the dollars. I live in a world where the USD is AT BEST a tenuous value, and more realistically where it is shortly to lose most-if not all- of its value. THEREFORE, I don't care about the fluctuations of fear and whether the hoarding is "justified" nor what the short term rises and falls are in the price of gold, guns, seeds, and adl items. The reason is that we view them as the "real" units of value, and dollars as irrelevant. It is all in perspective, and the perspective is determined by whether a normalcy bias is justified. I say there is far too much evidence that we are on a cliff. Time will tell if you are right.

Good luck.

Great analysis. I dot not necessarily agree that the USD is as tenuous as you do but it I understand the thought process. If not the USD which is still the most stable and reliable currency in the world what should the benchmark be. The problem I always see with other values like commodity goods, gold, silver, bit coin etc... is to use them to buy anything at some point they need to be converted into a recognized currency. At some point you have to be able to convert that "silver" into something that is recognized as currency and it will be done at a particular rate.

So the value and buying power of the USD or other standardized currency has to be a consideration. I speak in terms of the USD because that is what I and 99% of the people I know conduct their daily commerce in. It is what 99% of the people I know get paid in so in my mind its relevant.

 

[ddry61]

I have kept a plentiful supply on hand since Clinton was elected and have never needed to stand in line for unavailable supplies during a crisis. Most past crises have been about not being able to get ammo in the future because of feared legislation. That is true to a certain extent this time, but there is the added fear of the several radical commie groups bringing organized armed violence to people. This was not a great fear before but is an absolute reality now. This violence seems to be acceptable to the left wing politicians and to the media who do more to promote it than to stop it. There is a real threat that these old farts have not seen previously. These old farts also realize that the government is not protecting them and that their safety rests in their own hands. These old farts are too old to run or fight with their hands so they must have an equalizer when a white female terrorist dressed in black, wearing a mask, and carrying a fire bomb tries to destroy them. These old farts hope never to have to use that one box of ammo but realize that several rounds out of that one box may actually save their lives and the lives of their families. I do not think they really want that ammo but rather feel that they might actually need it. They very well might actually need it if things continue as they are.

Well said!

 

[Dale Gribble]

Probably a multitude of reasons for folks stocking up....whether it’s “flipping”, not wanting to be caught short, etc.

A safe full of guns and cans full of ammo ain’t magic. It’s not gonna be worth anything if you go to the range two, maybe three times a year. Guess that what irks me about the stockpiling...those same folks whose yearly range trips can be counted on one hand or those folks who have bought a weapon “just in case”, then stuff it in a dark corner of a dresser drawer are really no better off than they were before they panic purchased. They are convinced that as long as they’re sitting on a pile of weapons and “food” for their weapons, all will be ok...it won’t. The only before/after difference is “stuff”.

Whether folks are on their own or have families to tend to, they owe it to themselves/loved ones to be as proficient as possible and that don’t happen being content with sitting on one’s ass, with a full locker and believing, “It’s all good”....getting good with all that “stuff” when you need that “stuff” is really bad timing.

Not saying that stuff+skill is any guarantee of anything, but I want my wife/kids to believe the safest place on earth is right behind me....I owe them that...it’s my responsibility.

 

[B00ger]

Personally, as far as "being right" about a run on ammo and stocking up...is, well, we are seeing it now. I stocked up over the past few years when the "gettin was good"...so now I dont have to worry about the current prices. In fact, I stopped even looking like I used to. If there is some great social upheaval and its shootin commie time, then im good. If ammo becomes hard to come by for the next 100 years, I have enough to keep making sure my guns work, and if the prices drop like a rock when Trump is re-elected, then I can go back to shooting like I used to.

I got more seriously into firearms around Sandyhook, so I walked into a "run" and saw people paying $50+ for beat up surplus AR magazines, stupid prices for ammo, and quadruple the price for cheap ARs. So I learned not to ever be one of "those" people. So when things calmed down, I slowly and steadily stocked up. So a few years ago when there was another run, I wasnt affected. When it was over, I replenished what I had not been able to shoot, and then kept adding on. So, now we face another set back, and I have been "right" about stocking up so it doesnt impact me.

 

[Hammer12b]

And like the last time, bunch of old farts buying it all up. For what end game? To fondle, look at, brag about, have something to give them purpose in life?

They sell it at flea markets for just about double the price. That’s where all the .22 went the last time there was a shortage in my area. Same bunch of guys came into the gun stores, Academy and Wally World and bought everything they could buy.

 

[Oldguy]

Yep, I feel personally attacked too. I think it was the 33rd time he said "old fart".

 

[Oldguy]

I never wrote that.

Sorry @Me. I was actually talking about the post by @Charlie but liked @zuerjoha ('s) GIF so much I posted incorrectly. When she was 18 my daughter jokingly referred to me as the Old Fart and still uses it every now and then to aggravate me. So when Charlie said it a hundred and twelve times, I just reacted....lol.