How Long is the Ammo Shortage Going to Last?

How long will the 2020 Ammo Shortage Last

  • 0-3 More months

    Votes: 8 3.6%

  • 6-9 Months

    Votes: 31 13.8%

  • 9-12 Months

    Votes: 29 12.9%

  • 12-18 Months

    Votes: 36 16.1%

  • 18 to 24 Months

    Votes: 27 12.1%

  • More than 24 Months

    Votes: 66 29.5%

  • The Rest of my Natural Life

    Votes: 27 12.1%
  • Total voters
    224
wvsig said:
These days is seems like Academy and Bass Pro are the brick and mortar retailers holding prices close to the pre panic pricing. They line up at Academy to buy the limit. They know what day the trucks deliver ammo to stores in their area. A lot of the time it lasts only few hours even with the limits.
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Anybody know what day(s) the Concord Mills Academy gets ammo? Just want a little 38/357 for the new lever gun that I ordered.
 
BigWaylon said:
Anybody know what day(s) the Concord Mills Academy gets ammo? Just want a little 38/357 for the new lever gun that I ordered.
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I have no idea. None are close enough to me to be worth chasing.
 
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I will stick
with my 24 months. Although I do believe there is a good possibility it will go on longer. Which I do not understand because so many people have lost their guns in boating accidents in recent times, why would they be buying ammo. Just say'n!
 
Well it was proven yesterday 9mm Ammo will now fly off the shelf at $550 a case. People now feel luck to score 9mm at $.55 a round. It stays on the shelf at $.75-$.80 for brass cases from a major manufacturer but eventually sells at that price.

The only places selling 9mm ammo at a reasonable price are brick and mortar big box stores. $11.99-$15.99 a box but are limiting purchases. Time to get smurfing.
 
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I just roll my own. One source says ammo and guns are 1 year back order. Another source forecasts 3 years due to on going supply chain issues and the potential for worsening supply and labor issues due to Covid.
 
I vote 3-4 years at least. I think people are going to always remember how hard it is/was to get ammo during this time, so whenever they see it, they're going to buy it all up. I don't see the demand going down maybe ever. I think you will see a lot of people who thought 3-4,000 rounds was a good stash pre-Covid, start to think that 8-10,000 is a good stash per caliber. I think the thing with ammo is, versus an electronic or toilet paper, is that ammo has proven to keep/increase its value over time and does not depreciate, so people won't mind keeping 10,000 rounds for 20 years.
 
gopack23 said:
I vote 3-4 years at least. I think people are going to always remember how hard it is/was to get ammo during this time, so whenever they see it, they're going to buy it all up. I don't see the demand going down maybe ever. I think you will see a lot of people who thought 3-4,000 rounds was a good stash pre-Covid, start to think that 8-10,000 is a good stash per caliber. I think the thing with ammo is, versus an electronic or toilet paper, is that ammo has proven to keep/increase its value over time and does not depreciate, so people won't mind keeping 10,000 rounds for 20 years.
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I think you're right about the stash count.
 
gopack23 said:
I vote 3-4 years at least. I think people are going to always remember how hard it is/was to get ammo during this time, so whenever they see it, they're going to buy it all up. I don't see the demand going down maybe ever. I think you will see a lot of people who thought 3-4,000 rounds was a good stash pre-Covid, start to think that 8-10,000 is a good stash per caliber. I think the thing with ammo is, versus an electronic or toilet paper, is that ammo has proven to keep/increase its value over time and does not depreciate, so people won't mind keeping 10,000 rounds for 20 years.
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That is what I did for 22lr years ago and have no regrets. Everything else I reload, so I always have kept a good supply of reloading stuff. Whether or not I have enough for 4 years is questionable. Two years yes.
 
RedneckFur said:
Things came back down after Sandy Hook. Eventually this too, will pass.
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This feels right and I hope it is. Everyone is in panic mode. Once people start going back out and getting distracted and comfortable again, it will go back down. Maybe not to Trump levels, but it will go back down.
 
amnesia said:
I think you're right about the stash count.
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That is part of what will keep the shortage going for much longer. When people double or triple their stash count, especially into the multiple thousands, it makes the ammo unavailable for others. It is kind of a "I'll buy up all this ammo before the hoarders get it." The old Pogo comic strip had a famous panel that said "We have met the enemy and he is us".

Does anyone here remember the sugar panic in the 1970's? Some government subsidies dropped in domestic sugar production and people panicked and started buying all the sugar in sight. Same as now, the supply did not really change, but panic buying caused a shortage. 15 or so years later when we were cleaning out my Grandmother's attic, we found two 50 lb bags of sugar that she had forgotten about.
 
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Fess said:
That is part of what will keep the shortage going for much longer. When people double or triple their stash count, especially into the multiple thousands, it makes the ammo unavailable for others. It is kind of a "I'll buy up all this ammo before the hoarders get it." The old Pogo comic strip had a famous panel that said "We have met the enemy and he is us".
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Agreed 100%. I just think that's human nature. People remember stressful situations (like some of us with ammo right now), and will take measures to avoid stressing about ammo in the future. There's always going to be that person that can't have enough ammo and will keep buying, which they're entitled to do. I think new production facilities and hard limits would be the only way for ammo to be readily available on shelves in the near future.
 
My answer to this , on a public forum, really depends on whether I'm buying or selling. If you're reading this now and are sitting on a bunch of .308's ; the shortage is going to end any second.. please PM for a fair price on your ammo.

On the other hand, if you'd like to buy some 5.56; I'm thinking 5 years, minimum for the shortage... PM me for current prices. LOL .

Actually, in all seriousness, I think the ammunition market, like in person retail, has changed semi permanently because of the perfect storm of COVID, the election, and the general belief that people are sliding downhill sociologically at an ever increasing rate. All it's going to take is one "executive order" to investigate potential ammo hoarders as a domestic threat.. and welcome to the world of .22 CCI at $1.25/ round..
 
I’m expecting a big glut of 5.56 when everyone turns in their assault weapons to the government and then wants to sell off their ammo stash.

🤣🤣
 
Puddlejockey said:
My answer to this , on a public forum, really depends on whether I'm buying or selling. If you're reading this now and are sitting on a bunch of .308's ; the shortage is going to end any second.. please PM for a fair price on your ammo.

On the other hand, if you'd like to buy some 5.56; I'm thinking 5 years, minimum for the shortage... PM me for current prices. LOL .

Actually, in all seriousness, I think the ammunition market, like in person retail, has changed semi permanently because of the perfect storm of COVID, the election, and the general belief that people are sliding downhill sociologically at an ever increasing rate. All it's going to take is one "executive order" to investigate potential ammo hoarders as a domestic threat.. and welcome to the world of .22 CCI at $1.25/ round..
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Is CCI really going to $1.25/rd?

I now know how to pay for a new truck!
 
One of my employees got a notice from Sportsman's Warehouse in Asheville that they had ammo in stock this past weekend. 2 box limit, but they had 100 ct in 9mm (at least). He said prices were very reasonable. There were 2 very long lines, and there was confusion about which line to be in, which made tensions high and tempers flair.
 
Ferrisfan said:
I’m expecting a big glut of 5.56 when everyone turns in their assault weapons to the government and then wants to sell off their ammo stash.

🤣🤣
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On that note, moons ago when I was moving and couldn't take a bunch of stuff with me I was selling a host of things back to the LGS and the guy said "I can't buy your ammo, you'll just have to get rid of it". Ok. I kept back my trusty MAC90 and went to the range with some friends and we burnt through two cases of 762, then returned the following week selling a slightly more used rifle.

Maybe this time before people get in the line to turn them in they'll go burn up the ammo first? No reason to turn in things without shot-out barrels.

:)
 
Fess said:
That is part of what will keep the shortage going for much longer. When people double or triple their stash count, especially into the multiple thousands, it makes the ammo unavailable for others. It is kind of a "I'll buy up all this ammo before the hoarders get it." The old Pogo comic strip had a famous panel that said "We have met the enemy and he is us".

Does anyone here remember the sugar panic in the 1970's? Some government subsidies dropped in domestic sugar production and people panicked and started buying all the sugar in sight. Same as now, the supply did not really change, but panic buying caused a shortage. 15 or so years later when we were cleaning out my Grandmother's attic, we found two 50 lb bags of sugar that she had forgotten about.
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I never would build up my stash during a shortage time. I like my money in my pocket. Also my main reason for my stash is that I hate shopping. I do not care what it is for. I hate going into stores. When people went nuts about toilet paper and other items I was all set because those are items easy to store in the house and do not go bad. I just find it interesting that people do not stock up on items. I am a baby boomer and my parents always stayed well stocked on things do to the depression and WWII. So I just carried that on.

You are correct though that all these people thinking that there will be no more to get will pay anything right now and that is what causes the panic. If people just bought in a normal way there would be more then enough on the shelf.
 
While reading this post, thinking about how it’s driven by high $/rd costs, and some people (of which I may or may not be) having many, many thousands of rounds.... it made me think I better take good pictures of all my ammo in case house burns down and have to make an insurance claim.

Have inventoried an photo’d all firearms, but now the total ammo value gets up high for people really quick!
 
Longhorn90 said:
While reading this post, thinking about how it’s driven by high $/rd costs, and some people (of which I may or may not be) having many, many thousands of rounds.... it made me think I better take good pictures of all my ammo in case house burns down and have to make an insurance claim.

Have inventoried an photo’d all firearms, but now the total ammo value gets up high for people really quick!
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Just remember, that’s what people in the DA’s office call “evidence”.
 
A long time ago me a friend would pool our money buy a 50 rnd. box of. 22LR grab a rifle and head for the woods. We mainly shot at empty beer bottles from 50 + yards. Took our time and aimed precisely. Seems like we shot for a long time, and even had some bullets left over for next time. Fast forward to current shooting habits. Mag dumps , spray and pray , big targets up close with high cap mags and a timer running to make us shoot more bullets more faster. I love both methods. But if i get low on ammo ima take a few steps back and my targets are gonna get smaller. Forget the Hollywood style shooting and get back to the one shot , one skill mentality.
 
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