War in Ukraine (World War III)

Regardless of what happens, he's still dictator of a 2nd World pariah state with a collapsing economy.


His worst scenario- He's all of the above but his military effort has failed

His best scenario- He "wins" in Ukraine but is forever mired in a NATO fed guerilla war he cannot possibly win (or afford...especially with his efforts in Syria as an added expense). Oh, and still a pariah.

The Limey's are already in-country. And they are not the only ones.
 
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That's hilarious! Next up: "Identifies as BBB AAA+ approved" "Identifies as Medicare accepted"
 
Regardless of what happens, he's still dictator of a 2nd World pariah state with a collapsing economy.


His worst scenario- He's all of the above but his military effort has failed

His best scenario- He "wins" in Ukraine but is forever mired in a NATO fed guerilla war he cannot possibly win (or afford...(especially with his efforts in Syria as an added expense). Oh, and still a pariah with a collapsing economy.

not sure how many stones we should throw right now

 
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The Soviet Union had to use maskirovka with its military since WW2. We thought it was a peer until the Curtain fell because the maskirovka worked. Then when we really saw the state of their military we were appalled. Yeah, they had a handful of generational weapons systems, but by and large their conventional doctrine was to a) sink our navy before we could sink theirs, and b) overwhelm Europe with rapid and overwhelming force and make us negotiate. They knew they never could win a fight based on western defense technology.

So now? Same thing; second verse, same as the first. We have assumed because of the fall of communism that they actually decided to get their military house in order when all they have really done is the exact same thing as they have always done. Except now they do not have the sheer numbers they had in the good ol' days; it's pretty small, and manned largely by conscripts who would rather be having root canal (and who probably need it) than be in uniform. They have no professional NCO corps like we do, they centralize their C3 and do not allow non-officers/non-pro's to make any significant decisions.

Honestly I do not know what is worse, that they are actually that bad, or that we've been duped, again, into thinking they were all that and a bag of chips.

China? Their military tech would be perpetually stuck in the 50s if it wasn't for stealing tech. Even then, most of what they steal only tells part of the story: yes, their 5th gen stealth AC may look like ours, but the avionics is likely 50 years old. And their C3 is the same as the Soviets. They are so afraid of someone going rogue and stealing a plane and defecting they do not put anything 'advanced' into electronics or weapons systems. Iran did that, too, with our F-14s, but we helped them by giving them F-14s with the worse engines and no avionics.

And I am unabashedly 'pulling' for Ukraine. I love the Russian people right up to the moment they put on a uniform or go into politics. Then they are my mortal enemy. I am part Finn; it's in my DNA.

Some of y'all never read this thread and it shows....


"I love the Russian people right up to the moment they put on a uniform or go into politics. Then they are my mortal enemy. I am part Finn; it's in my DNA."

The same guy that says this and immediately jumps to flying the Ukrainian flag as an avatar wants to lecture everyone on cognitive bias and critical thinking?
 
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"I love the Russian people right up to the moment they put on a uniform or go into politics. Then they are my mortal enemy. I am part Finn; it's in my DNA."

The same guy that says this and immediately jumps to flying the Ukrainian flag as an avatar wants to lecture everyone on cognitive bias and critical thinking?

I am guilty of bias (not of not critically thinking, though). But I have the balls to admit it.

And hell yeah, I will inform people about cognitive bias and cognitive thinking. Some of these posts smack of 3rd grade arguments.
 
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I am guilty of bias (not of not critically thinking, though). But I have the balls to admit it.

And hell yeah, I will inform people about cognitive bias and cognitive thinking. Some of these posts smack of 3rd grade arguments.
Precisely. To believe that one does not have some innate bias or prejudice is to be ignorant. Nature and nurture – we are at least partially a product of the environments in which we spent our formative years.
 
I am guilty of bias (not of not critically thinking, though). But I have the balls to admit it.

And hell yeah, I will inform people about cognitive bias and cognitive thinking. Some of these posts smack of 3rd grade arguments.
Are you referring to the tit for tat arguing? That appears to be mostly prompted by the troll du jour that has set up shop in this thread.

Or are you talking about some data that is opposing the narrative you have chosen?
 
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Are you referring to the tit for tat arguing? That appears to be mostly prompted by the troll du jour that has set up shop in this thread.

Or are you talking about some data that is opposing the narrative you have chosen?

Neither. Both. Whatever. Data opposing narratives that is cherry picked for confirmation bias. Inability to consider that more than one thing can be true. Unwillingness to consider other points. Illogical presumptions. It's like all the COVID threads all over again.

But me? I don't know that I have a 'specific' narrative; and I have changed my mind on many things based on new data. But I still think Putin is a prick who invaded another country. Have not seen any information that disputes that.
 
There you go with the exaggeration again. I didn’t puff out my chest nor did I ever say that the US should do more. To reiterate, I said that I greatly prefer that we take the lead when it comes to global affairs— never said military action, that was someone putting words in my mouth and taking a leap.
Everyone is free to their opinion on a conflict, but when a keyboard commando PUFFS HIS CHEST in a forum about sending or not sending troops into a conflict, yeah, I respect their opinion more if they had the stones to sign their own name on the line. Sue me.
No, I’m not stuck in my opinion just because I haven’t heard a compelling argument to change a given viewpoint. One example of my open mindedness— I wasn’t aware of the alleged US/NATO “off-the-record promise” to Russia to not expand NATO eastward during the German unification. I still think that Putin is an evil a-hole, but I better understand his and those in this forum’s mindsets a little more. Regardless, I still don’t feel that substantiates his invasion of Ukraine.
If you feel I’m off on another viewpoint expressed here, here’s your chance to change my mind. I’m open.
Ok bigot. :)
 
Neither. Both. Whatever. Data opposing narratives that is cherry picked for confirmation bias. Inability to consider that more than one thing can be true. Unwillingness to consider other points. Illogical presumptions. It's like all the COVID threads all over again.

But me? I don't know that I have a 'specific' narrative; and I have changed my mind on many things based on new data. But I still think Putin is a prick who invaded another country. Have not seen any information that disputes that.
So just a reminder to think critically and consider other viewpoints.

Thanks for the PSA.
 
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The news is making it sound like Russia cutting off Poland and Bulgaria‘s supply of natural gas is no issue. Just 6 weeks ago there were many articles showing how much dependency Europe had on Russia to keep resources flowing. Russia has requested payment be in rubles which both Poland and Bulgaria denied. The Germans could be next. That scenerio will have a huge impact on manufacturing, employment, and the Euro.
In the short term, it may have a negative impact on the Euro, but in the long term, it's forcing these countries to face up to some very, very poor and far-reaching energy decisions. Those governments/EU got in bed with the devil, and now the blood is spilling. The widespread destruction across Ukraine is appalling to watch. I can absolutely see Putin nuking Mariupol to free up his gang (cuz it dang sure ain't any sort of 'professional army') to then move on to Moldova. :oops: Then again, the 'siege mentality' is strong with the horde and they may stick it out, to their detriment once all the new heavy weapons Ukraine is acquiring get brought on line.
 
In the short term, it may have a negative impact on the Euro, but in the long term, it's forcing these countries to face up to some very, very poor and far-reaching energy decisions. Those governments/EU got in bed with the devil, and now the blood is spilling. The widespread destruction across Ukraine is appalling to watch. I can absolutely see Putin nuking Mariupol to free up his gang (cuz it dang sure ain't any sort of 'professional army') to then move on to Moldova. :oops: Then again, the 'siege mentality' is strong with the horde and they may stick it out, to their detriment once all the new heavy weapons Ukraine is acquiring get brought on line.
Is that devil worse than the middle east devils? I doubt it. Same can be said about our government. The more this goes on the more it looks like their is a no win situation for Russia. I don’t think their people have any love for fighting a war with people similar to them. This no Turdstan country.
 
Like the experts who said that Covid was a hoax and people should take Ivermectin to cure it? Yup, you’re right again.

I never said advanced degrees or even college degrees (once again, someone on this forum takes a statement and runs with it in the wrong direction for the sake of being argumentative), but everyone should at least get a high school education, learn a trade, maybe get an associates degree— there is no excuse not to. That said, my greater issue is with bigoted attitudes.

I don’t think Covid is hoax, but I do know Ivermectin as an early treatment is wildly successful and has virtually zero downside, as opposed to the more media hyped options.
 
I don’t think Covid is hoax, but I do know Ivermectin as an early treatment is wildly successful and has virtually zero downside, as opposed to the more media hyped options.

Maybe, maybe not. It's been fairly inconclusive. But to this point, if there are no significant downsides to at least trying it, why not try it?


In relation to Ukraine, the information, which has been maddeningly inconsistent in veracity, also changes by the day. Same as COVID, and the same people who claimed 'ivermectin won't work' and won't budge (in spite of some evidence that might suggest otherwise), are the same people who claim 'but Ukraine (or Russia) this or that'.
 
Maybe, maybe not. It's been fairly inconclusive. But to this point, if there are no significant downsides to at least trying it, why not try it?


In relation to Ukraine, the information, which has been maddeningly inconsistent in veracity, also changes by the day. Same as COVID, and the same people who claimed 'ivermectin won't work' and won't budge (in spite of some evidence that might suggest otherwise), are the same people who claim 'but Ukraine (or Russia) this or that'.

I think most Dr’s that have had success with it use it early and with a combination of other things, some of the FLCC doctors seem to have been pretty darn successful treating their patients. Dr Zellenko has also created his protocol that works well.
 
Maybe, maybe not. It's been fairly inconclusive. But to this point, if there are no significant downsides to at least trying it, why not try it?

At the risk of a thread derailment which is not my intent, I think this illustrates your concern about confirmation bias.

Is it fair to say that you are biased to trust information simply because it is published in JAMA? I certainly was a couple years ago. If so, it would make sense why you would link that study, especially in in light of your past/current skepticism about IVM.

On the other hand, I read the first few paragraphs and I can immediately see that the study design is nothing like the protocols that dozens of doctors using ivermectin have used to literally save thousands of patients with either zero or low single digit deaths.

The three key factors those docs have been sharing with anyone who will listen is that you treat immediately (not wait until day 7 (!) of symptoms as in the study, you treat until the symptoms resolve (not just stop at day 3 regardless of patient condition) and you treat with complementary vitamins and minerals like C, D and zinc.

There are dozens of quality studies that show that early IVM (or hcq or even better, fluvoxamine) treatment works very well. And yet, the JAMA publishes this paper that confirms the skeptical view, by not following the protocol that has been proven with tens of thousands of lives saved. The ACTIV6 trials have the same issues, and ironically when non-biased docs dug into the TOGETHER data it actually still showed benefit from IVM!

One might say, well, this protocol was designed just to test that scenario so we can learn something about IVM, but at this point that is a waste of time and resources that does more harm than good, especially because the result is used to further suppress the effective protocols just because they use IVM.

So, I agree with you... Confirmation bias is powerful and widespread. I don't mind having my own pointed out to me for me to examine as it seems you don't either, and I think that's key to getting to whatever truth is possible.
 
At the risk of a thread derailment which is not my intent, I think this illustrates your concern about confirmation bias.

Is it fair to say that you are biased to trust information simply because it is published in JAMA? I certainly was a couple years ago. If so, it would make sense why you would link that study, especially in in light of your past/current skepticism about IVM.

On the other hand, I read the first few paragraphs and I can immediately see that the study design is nothing like the protocols that dozens of doctors using ivermectin have used to literally save thousands of patients with either zero or low single digit deaths.

The three key factors those docs have been sharing with anyone who will listen is that you treat immediately (not wait until day 7 (!) of symptoms as in the study, you treat until the symptoms resolve (not just stop at day 3 regardless of patient condition) and you treat with complementary vitamins and minerals like C, D and zinc.

There are dozens of quality studies that show that early IVM (or hcq or even better, fluvoxamine) treatment works very well. And yet, the JAMA publishes this paper that confirms the skeptical view, by not following the protocol that has been proven with tens of thousands of lives saved. The ACTIV6 trials have the same issues, and ironically when non-biased docs dug into the TOGETHER data it actually still showed benefit from IVM!

One might say, well, this protocol was designed just to test that scenario so we can learn something about IVM, but at this point that is a waste of time and resources that does more harm than good, especially because the result is used to further suppress the effective protocols just because they use IVM.

So, I agree with you... Confirmation bias is powerful and widespread. I don't mind having my own pointed out to me for me to examine as it seems you don't either, and I think that's key to getting to whatever truth is possible.

Trust information because it is in JAMA? Not necessarily. I read the study, the research was pretty robust (and does point out its limitations; one being the question it tried to answer was very narrow and limited in design). Regarding my skepticism, I really don't have much: I have read articles that have said it's garbage, and I have read articles that said it would have raised Lazarus. My "2 cent interpretation of research and studies" has me go down the middle: it's probably not the panacea some people want it to be, and not the killer some think it is. In more scientific terms, it's probably classified, to me, as IIB: might help, can't hurt. So no, no real 'skepticism.'

I have always enjoyed debate with you, and talking with you. I think we're mature enough that we don't mind sacrificing sacred cows. If people can put out data for me to change my mind, I will, and I think many people would. Some people here, though, would go down with their bias like they were the captain of the Titanic lol.
 
Ltc Don : in the long term, it's forcing these countries to face up to some very, very poor and far-reaching energy decisions.

This is true. Those French we all enjoy making fun of and their huge and continuing investment in nuclear energy aren't looking as dopey as they usually do.
 
I have always enjoyed debate with you, and talking with you. I think we're mature enough that we don't mind sacrificing sacred cows. If people can put out data for me to change my mind, I will, and I think many people would.
Likewise, and it's true... So many sacred cows have been turned into hamburger the last few years, and trusted people/institutions proven unworthy, that I think we all need to be open to not having all the facts we think we do.

I always appreciate your willingness to respond to my questions objectively... You have a lot more experience than me on these topics and are a great sanity check on data that seems compelling but of course is never perfect or unbiased.
 
Here are some things that might be agreeable to many here:

Putin and the leaders of many countries west of Russia are mostly all jerks (stronger words not allowed here).
The war in Ukraine should never have been started, but too many politicians decided things had to be done their way.
The war should be ended quickly and peacefully, but too many politicians are more concerned with 'winning' than with the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
Truth really is the first casualty of war and what average citizens like us can really know about the war is exceptionally limited considering the mass of propaganda from all sides.
 
From Ron Paul:


“War is a racket, wrote US Maj. General Smedley Butler in 1935. He explained: “A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small ‘inside’ group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.”

Gen. Butler’s observation describes the US/NATO response to the Ukraine war perfectly.

The propaganda continues to portray the war in Ukraine as that of an unprovoked Goliath out to decimate an innocent David unless we in the US and NATO contribute massive amounts of military equipment to Ukraine to defeat Russia. As is always the case with propaganda, this version of events is manipulated to bring an emotional response to the benefit of special interests.

One group of special interests profiting massively on the war is the US military-industrial complex. Raytheon CEO Greg Hayes recently told a meeting of shareholders that, “Everything that ‘s being shipped into Ukraine today, of course, is coming out of stockpiles, either at DOD or from our NATO allies, and that’s all great news. Eventually we’ll have to replenish it and we will see a benefit to the business.”

He wasn’t lying. Raytheon, along with Lockheed Martin and countless other weapons manufacturers are enjoying a windfall they have not seen in years. The US has committed more than three billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine. They call it aid, but it is actually corporate welfare: Washington sending billions to arms manufacturers for weapons sent overseas.

By many accounts these shipments of weapons like the Javelin anti-tank missile (jointly manufactured by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin) are getting blown up as soon as they arrive in Ukraine. This doesn’t bother Raytheon at all. The more weapons blown up by Russia in Ukraine, the more new orders come from the Pentagon.

Former Warsaw Pact countries now members of NATO are in on the scam as well. They’ve discovered how to dispose of their 30-year-old Soviet-made weapons and receive modern replacements from the US and other western NATO countries.

While many who sympathize with Ukraine are cheering, this multi-billion dollar weapons package will make little difference. As former US Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter said on the Ron Paul Liberty Report last week, “I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle. And Joe Biden knows it.”

What we do see is that Russians are capturing modern US and NATO weapons by the ton and even using them to kill more Ukrainians. What irony. Also, what kinds of opportunities will be provided to terrorists, with thousands of tons of deadly high-tech weapons floating around Europe? Washington has admitted that it has no way of tracking the weapons it is sending to Ukraine and no way to keep them out of the hands of the bad guys.

War is a racket, to be sure. The US has been meddling in Ukraine since the end of the Cold War, going so far as overthrowing the government in 2014 and planting the seeds of the war we are witnessing today. The only way out of a hole is to stop digging. Don’t expect that any time soon. War is too profitable.
 
Butler was a fascinating man; only of 19 to have earned the Medal of Honor twice. He was also very controversial, especially in his later years (War is a Racket, advocating unions for military vets, speaking against 'military imperialism'). Regarding War is a Racket, he wasn't wrong.

I have said that it isn't our business, and we should keep our noses out of it. I am ambivalent about sending aid. I go back and forth on that. I am dismayed at the notion of US advisors in-country for about a million reasons and that is where we are headed.

Regarding Scott Ritter, he has street cred for sure. Interestingly, his comments above (“I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle") are shared by some, not shared by others. I am curious how he came to this conclusion.
 
Butler was a fascinating man; only of 19 to have earned the Medal of Honor twice. He was also very controversial, especially in his later years (War is a Racket, advocating unions for military vets, speaking against 'military imperialism'). Regarding War is a Racket, he wasn't wrong.

I have said that it isn't our business, and we should keep our noses out of it. I am ambivalent about sending aid. I go back and forth on that. I am dismayed at the notion of US advisors in-country for about a million reasons and that is where we are headed.

Regarding Scott Ritter, he has street cred for sure. Interestingly, his comments above (“I can say with absolute certainty that even if this aid makes it to the battlefield, it will have zero impact on the battle") are shared by some, not shared by others. I am curious how he came to this conclusion.
We have to get involved, how else with Raytheon pay their execs bonuses and the Fed cover up all their sketchy shit in the Ukraine!
 
Let's just give them one of our printing presses and be done with it.


''On Thursday, President Biden requested $33 billion in new funding to go towards supporting Ukraine’s military in their defense against the ongoing Russian invasion.''

https://thepostmillennial.com/break...unding-for-ukraine-defense?utm_campaign=64487

If 1 single idiotic Republican votes fort that insanity I may become political and join the green party or something to help hasten our demise. Although Democrat policies will probably beat me to it.

Folks, we’re in deep doo doo here.
 
After talking about Ritter's assessment, ironic I just read this from another former military intelligence officer. I don't agree or disagree (with Ritter or this guy), just amused at how all over the place people are:

View attachment 467610

So his take is that the Rand Corp policy of using Ukraine to turn into a quagmire for Russia with terrorist attacks and a total money, resource and morale suck is working. I could see that. Hard to control future terrorist attacks when the attackers are physically indistinguishable from the local population. Could be a Northern Ireland mixed with Iraq or Afghanistan mess for years. That’s a log border to control. Maybe we can offer him Secretary Mayorkas since he’s doing such a fine job with our border.

It seems that the Nato, EU and US policy of using Ukraine to drain Russia may be successful, but it sure sucks for the people living there. Guess they are just pawns for academic eggs heads world domination plans.
 
True or no? I can't find any info to confirm or refute.

Who knows what is true over there at this point. This article doesn't seem to mention that specific city, but paints a bleaker picture of Ukrainian prospects:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05...ady-war-in-the-donbas-means-ukraine-wont-win/
 
Apparently the Russian navy has donated another reef to the Sea of Azov near Snake island. Reports are that a support shop was struck by Missiles and is on fire
 
Putin also has vowed grave consequences for Finland if they join Nato. Which it looks like is going to happen
 
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